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Future Changes in Precipitation Over Northern Europe Based on a Multi-model Ensemble from CMIP6: Focus on Tana River Basin

Author

Listed:
  • Sogol Moradian

    (K. N. Toosi University of Technology)

  • Ali Torabi Haghighi

    (University of Oulu)

  • Maryam Asadi

    (K. N. Toosi University of Technology)

  • Seyed Ahmad Mirbagheri

    (K. N. Toosi University of Technology)

Abstract

Accurate climate projections help policymakers mitigate the negative effects of climatic changes and prioritize environmental issues based on scientific evidences. These projections rely heavily on the outputs of GCMs (General Circulation Models), but the large number of GCMs and their different outputs in each region confuses researchers in their selection. In this paper, we analyzed the performance of a CMIP6 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) multi-model ensemble for Pr (precipitation) data over NE (Northern Europe). First of all, we evaluated the overall performance of 12 CMIP6 models from GCMs in 30 years of 1985–2014. Furthermore, future projections were analyzed between 2071 and 2100 using SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). Then, simulations were statistically improved using an ensemble method to correct the systematic error of the CMIP6 models and then the capacity of postprocessed data to reproduce historical trends of climate events was investigated. Finally, the possible spatio-temporal changes of future Pr data were explored in Tana River Basin. The results of this study show that different CMIP6 models do not have the same accuracy in estimating Pr in the study area. However, the ensemble method can be effective in increasing the accuracy of the projections. The results of this study projected a change in the monthly Pr data over Tana River Basin by 2.46% and 2.06% from 2071 to 2100 compared to the historical period, based on SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Sogol Moradian & Ali Torabi Haghighi & Maryam Asadi & Seyed Ahmad Mirbagheri, 2023. "Future Changes in Precipitation Over Northern Europe Based on a Multi-model Ensemble from CMIP6: Focus on Tana River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2447-2463, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03272-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03272-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sarah C. Elmendorf & Gregory H. R. Henry & Robert D. Hollister & Robert G. Björk & Noémie Boulanger-Lapointe & Elisabeth J. Cooper & Johannes H. C. Cornelissen & Thomas A. Day & Ellen Dorrepaal & Tati, 2012. "Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(6), pages 453-457, June.
    2. A. Kay & H. Davies & V. Bell & R. Jones, 2009. "Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 41-63, January.
    3. Sogol Moradian & Farhad Yazdandoost, 2021. "Seasonal meteorological drought projections over Iran using the NMME data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 1089-1107, August.
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