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Comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models for climate change impact assessment in the Upper Yangtze River Basin, China

Author

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  • Shanshan Wen

    (Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology)

  • Buda Su

    (Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
    National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration
    Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yanjun Wang

    (Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology)

  • Jianqing Zhai

    (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration)

  • Hemin Sun

    (Beijing Meteorological Bureau)

  • Ziyan Chen

    (Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology)

  • Jinlong Huang

    (Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology)

  • Anqian Wang

    (Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Tong Jiang

    (Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
    Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Climate change has substantial impacts on regional hydrology in the major river basins. To figure out such latent hydrological impacts of changing climate, more reliable hydrological simulations are imperative. In this study, we evaluated the impacts of climate change on hydrological regime in the Upper Yangtze River Basin based on four downscaled and bias-corrected Global Climate Model outputs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) driving three hydrological models. Two model evaluation approaches were applied: simple and comprehensive. The comprehensive approach was used to evaluate models in the historical period, optimizing objective function at four gauges, and hydrological models were weighted for impact assessment based on their performance. In such a way, projected streamflow time series are obtained under different emission scenarios. Results show that the annual average discharge is projected to increase by 4.1–10.5% under the RCP scenarios at the end of twenty-first century relative to the reference period (1970–1999). Moreover, the high flow is projected to increase and the low flow to decrease indicating a higher probability of flood and drought occurrence in the basin. The severity of floods and droughts may increase. In comparison with the simple one-site model evaluation approach, the comprehensive method reveals that the anticipated extreme flow events would be less severe, and annual mean discharge slightly lower. The projected results imply that application of the comprehensive model evaluation approach could narrow the simulated spreads of projections significantly, and might provide more credible results.

Suggested Citation

  • Shanshan Wen & Buda Su & Yanjun Wang & Jianqing Zhai & Hemin Sun & Ziyan Chen & Jinlong Huang & Anqian Wang & Tong Jiang, 2020. "Comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models for climate change impact assessment in the Upper Yangtze River Basin, China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1207-1226, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:163:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02929-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02929-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shaochun Huang & Rohini Kumar & Martina Flörke & Tao Yang & Yeshewatesfa Hundecha & Philipp Kraft & Chao Gao & Alexander Gelfan & Stefan Liersch & Anastasia Lobanova & Michael Strauch & Floris van Ogt, 2017. "Erratum to: Evaluation of an ensemble of regional hydrological models in 12 large-scale river basins worldwide," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 399-400, April.
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    2. Yan, Xiang & Bai, Jiancheng & Zhang, Yueyan & Hu, Shiliang, 2022. "Can the ecological environment reverse feed renewable energy technology innovation? -- Heterogeneity test from the Yangtze River Economic Belt," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 1381-1392.
    3. Pengcheng Qin & Hongmei Xu & Min Liu & Lüliu Liu & Chan Xiao & Iman Mallakpour & Matin Rahnamay Naeini & Kuolin Hsu & Soroosh Sorooshian, 2022. "Projected impacts of climate change on major dams in the Upper Yangtze River Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-24, January.
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    5. Yuan Gong & Xin Geng & Ping Wang & Shi Hu & Xunming Wang, 2024. "Impact of Urbanization-Driven Land Use Changes on Runoff in the Upstream Mountainous Basin of Baiyangdian, China: A Multi-Scenario Simulation Study," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-22, August.

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