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Forecasting of Future Flooding and Risk Assessment under CMIP6 Climate Projection in Neuse River, North Carolina

Author

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  • Indira Pokhrel

    (School of Civil, Environmental and Infrastructure Engineering, Southern Illinois University, 1230 Lincoln Drive, Carbondale, IL 62901-6603, USA)

  • Ajay Kalra

    (School of Civil, Environmental and Infrastructure Engineering, Southern Illinois University, 1230 Lincoln Drive, Carbondale, IL 62901-6603, USA)

  • Md Mafuzur Rahaman

    (AECOM, 2380 McGee St Suite 200, Kansas City, MO 64108, USA)

  • Ranjeet Thakali

    (Bayer-Risse Engineering, Inc., 78 State Highway 173 W, Suite#6, Hampton, NJ 08827, USA)

Abstract

Hydrological extremes associated with climate change are becoming an increasing concern all over the world. Frequent flooding, one of the extremes, needs to be analyzed while considering climate change to mitigate flood risk. This study forecast streamflow and evaluate risk of flooding in the Neuse River, North Carolina considering future climatic scenarios, and comparing them with an existing Federal Emergency Management Agency study. The cumulative distribution function transformation method was adopted for bias correction to reduce the uncertainty present in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) streamflow data. To calculate 100-year and 500-year flood discharges, the Generalized Extreme Value (L-Moment) was utilized on bias-corrected multimodel ensemble data with different climate projections. Out of all projections, shared socio-economic pathways (SSP5-8.5) exhibited the maximum design streamflow, which was routed through a hydraulic model, the Hydrological Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), to generate flood inundation and risk maps. The result indicates an increase in flood inundation extent compared to the existing study, depicting a higher flood hazard and risk in the future. This study highlights the importance of forecasting future flood risk and utilizing the projected climate data to obtain essential information to determine effective strategic plans for future floodplain management.

Suggested Citation

  • Indira Pokhrel & Ajay Kalra & Md Mafuzur Rahaman & Ranjeet Thakali, 2020. "Forecasting of Future Flooding and Risk Assessment under CMIP6 Climate Projection in Neuse River, North Carolina," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-23, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:2:y:2020:i:3:p:18-345:d:405745
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Congressional Budget Office, 2019. "Expected Costs of Damage From Hurricane Winds and Storm-Related Flooding," Reports 55019, Congressional Budget Office.
    2. Alen Shrestha & Md Mafuzur Rahaman & Ajay Kalra & Rohit Jogineedi & Pankaj Maheshwari, 2020. "Climatological Drought Forecasting Using Bias Corrected CMIP6 Climate Data: A Case Study for India," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-26, April.
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    4. A. Kay & H. Davies & V. Bell & R. Jones, 2009. "Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 41-63, January.
    5. Frans Klijn & Heidi Kreibich & Hans Moel & Edmund Penning-Rowsell, 2015. "Adaptive flood risk management planning based on a comprehensive flood risk conceptualisation," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 845-864, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Swarupa Paudel & Neekita Joshi & Ajay Kalra, 2023. "Projected Future Flooding Pattern of Wabash River in Indiana and Fountain Creek in Colorado: An Assessment Utilizing Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Climate Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-19, April.
    2. Minxue He & Haksu Lee, 2021. "Advances in Hydrological Forecasting," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-3, July.

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