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Heat waves in the United States: definitions, patterns and trends

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  • Tiffany Smith
  • Benjamin Zaitchik
  • Julia Gohlke

Abstract

High temperatures and heat waves are related but not synonymous concepts. Heat waves, generally understood to be acute periods of extreme warmth, are relevant to a wide range of stakeholders because of the impacts that these events have on human health and activities and on natural environments. Perhaps because of the diversity of communities engaged in heat wave monitoring and research, there is no single, standard definition of a heat wave. Experts differ in which threshold values (absolute versus relative), duration and ancillary variables to incorporate into heat wave definitions. While there is value in this diversity of perspectives, the lack of a unified index can cause confusion when discussing patterns, trends, and impacts. Here, we use data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System to examine patterns and trends in 15 previously published heat wave indices for the period 1979–2011 across the Continental United States. Over this period the Southeast region saw the highest number of heat wave days for the majority of indices considered. Positive trends (increases in number of heat wave days per year) were greatest in the Southeast and Great Plains regions, where more than 12 % of the land area experienced significant increases in the number of heat wave days per year for the majority of heat wave indices. Significant negative trends were relatively rare, but were found in portions of the Southwest, Northwest, and Great Plains. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

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  • Tiffany Smith & Benjamin Zaitchik & Julia Gohlke, 2013. "Heat waves in the United States: definitions, patterns and trends," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 811-825, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:118:y:2013:i:3:p:811-825
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0659-2
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    1. Christoph Schär & Pier Luigi Vidale & Daniel Lüthi & Christoph Frei & Christian Häberli & Mark A. Liniger & Christof Appenzeller, 2004. "The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves," Nature, Nature, vol. 427(6972), pages 332-336, January.
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    1. Mengmeng Li & Shaohua Gu & Peng Bi & Jun Yang & Qiyong Liu, 2015. "Heat Waves and Morbidity: Current Knowledge and Further Direction-A Comprehensive Literature Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-28, May.
    2. Jintao Zhang & Fang Wang, 2019. "Regional Temperature Response in Central Asia to National Committed Emission Reductions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-15, July.
    3. Gulcan Cil & Trudy Ann Cameron, 2017. "Potential Climate Change Health Risks from Increases in Heat Waves: Abnormal Birth Outcomes and Adverse Maternal Health Conditions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(11), pages 2066-2079, November.
    4. Chuan-Yao Lin & Yi-Yun Chien & Chiung-Jui Su & Mien-Tze Kueh & Shih-Chun Lung, 2017. "Climate variability of heat wave and projection of warming scenario in Taiwan," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 305-320, December.
    5. Erin M. Schliep & Alan E. Gelfand & Jesús Abaurrea & Jesús Asín & María A. Beamonte & Ana C. Cebrián, 2021. "Long‐term spatial modelling for characteristics of extreme heat events," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(3), pages 1070-1092, July.
    6. Lei Ye & Ke Shi & Zhuohang Xin & Chao Wang & Chi Zhang, 2019. "Compound Droughts and Heat Waves in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-14, June.
    7. Arkadiusz M. Tomczyk & Agnieszka Sulikowska & Ewa Bednorz & Marek Półrolniczak, 2019. "Atmospheric circulation conditions during winter warm spells in Central Europe," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(3), pages 1413-1428, April.
    8. Francesca Cecinati & Tom Matthews & Sukumar Natarajan & Nick McCullen & David Coley, 2019. "Mining Social Media to Identify Heat Waves," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-19, March.
    9. K. Oleson & A. Monaghan & O. Wilhelmi & M. Barlage & N. Brunsell & J. Feddema & L. Hu & D. Steinhoff, 2015. "Interactions between urbanization, heat stress, and climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 525-541, April.
    10. M. Luke Smith & Rachel R. Hardeman, 2020. "Association of Summer Heat Waves and the Probability of Preterm Birth in Minnesota: An Exploration of the Intersection of Race and Education," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-12, September.
    11. Jagadeesh Puvvula & Azar M. Abadi & Kathryn C. Conlon & Jared J. Rennie & Hunter Jones & Jesse E. Bell, 2022. "Evaluating the Sensitivity of Heat Wave Definitions among North Carolina Physiographic Regions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-13, August.
    12. Yanxu Liu & Shuangshuang Li & Yanglin Wang & Tian Zhang & Jian Peng & Tianyi Li, 2015. "Identification of multiple climatic extremes in metropolis: a comparison of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(2), pages 939-953, November.
    13. Sinha, Paramita & Coville, Robert C. & Hirabayashi, Satoshi & Lim, Brian & Endreny, Theodore A. & Nowak, David J., 2021. "Modeling lives saved from extreme heat by urban tree cover✰," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 449(C).
    14. Larsson, Karl, 2023. "Parametric heat wave insurance," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    15. Steffen Merte, 2017. "Estimating heat wave-related mortality in Europe using singular spectrum analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 321-330, June.
    16. Wentan Dong & Qiang Zeng & Yue Ma & Guoxing Li & Xiaochuan Pan, 2016. "Impact of Heat Wave Definitions on the Added Effect of Heat Waves on Cardiovascular Mortality in Beijing, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-12, September.
    17. Zheng, Zhonghua & Zhao, Lei & Oleson, Keith W., 2020. "Large model parameter and structural uncertainties in global projections of urban heat waves," Earth Arxiv f5pwa, Center for Open Science.
    18. Frank A. La Sorte & Alison Johnston & Toby R. Ault, 2021. "Global trends in the frequency and duration of temperature extremes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-14, May.
    19. K. W. Oleson & G. B. Anderson & B. Jones & S. A. McGinnis & B. Sanderson, 2018. "Avoided climate impacts of urban and rural heat and cold waves over the U.S. using large climate model ensembles for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 377-392, February.
    20. Yun Jian & Connor Y. H. Wu & Julia M. Gohlke, 2017. "Effect Modification by Environmental Quality on the Association between Heatwaves and Mortality in Alabama, United States," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-11, September.
    21. Hadi Beygi Heidarlou & Melina Gholamzadeh Bazarbash & Stelian Alexandru Borz, 2024. "Unveiling the Role of Climate and Environmental Dynamics in Shaping Forest Fire Patterns in Northern Zagros, Iran," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-19, September.

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