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Regional Temperature Response in Central Asia to National Committed Emission Reductions

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  • Jintao Zhang

    (Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    J.Z. and F W. are the co-first authors, and they contributed equally to this work.)

  • Fang Wang

    (Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    J.Z. and F W. are the co-first authors, and they contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

National committed greenhouse gas emission reduction actions are the center of the Paris Agreement, and are known as ‘Intended Nationally Determined Contributions’ (INDC) that aim to slow down global warming. The climate response to INDC emission reduction is a focus in climate change science. In this study, data from 32 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were applied to investigate the changes in the mean and extreme high temperatures in Central Asia (CA) under the INDC scenario above the present-day level. The results show that the magnitude of warming in CA is remarkably higher than the global mean. Almost all the regions in CA will experience more intense, more frequent, and longer-lasting extreme high-temperature events. In comparison with the INDC scenario, the reduced warming of the 2.0 °C/1.5 °C target scenarios will help avoid approximately 44–61%/65–80% of the increase in extreme temperature events in terms of the intensity, frequency, and duration in CA. These results contribute to an improved understanding of the benefits of limiting global warming to the 2.0 °C/1.5 °C targets, which is paramount for mitigation and adaptation planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Jintao Zhang & Fang Wang, 2019. "Regional Temperature Response in Central Asia to National Committed Emission Reductions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-15, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:15:p:2661-:d:251638
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