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Atmospheric circulation conditions during winter warm spells in Central Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Arkadiusz M. Tomczyk

    (Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań)

  • Agnieszka Sulikowska

    (Jagiellonian University in Kraków)

  • Ewa Bednorz

    (Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań)

  • Marek Półrolniczak

    (Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań)

Abstract

The objective of the paper was to characterise the temporal and spatial variability of winter warm spells in Central Europe in the years 1966/1967–2015/2016 and to determine the circulation conditions of their occurrence. The applied data were obtained from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Deutscher Wetterdienst and the National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research. A warm spell was defined as a sequence of at least three warm days, i.e. when the maximum air temperature is higher than the 95th percentile of the probability density function designated from observation. The research has proven that over the study period the air temperature increased in the winter season in Central Europe and this translated into an increase in the number of warm days. An average of 3–5 warm spells was recorded per 10 years. The most numerous warm spells occurred during three winter seasons, i.e. 1989/1990, 2006/2007 and 2015/2016. The occurrence of warm spells was related to positive anomalies of geopotential heights over the study area in the cross section of the entire troposphere. Maximum anomalies appeared at 250 hPa geopotential height, and they developed on average 9 days before the commencement of warm spells over the study area.

Suggested Citation

  • Arkadiusz M. Tomczyk & Agnieszka Sulikowska & Ewa Bednorz & Marek Półrolniczak, 2019. "Atmospheric circulation conditions during winter warm spells in Central Europe," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(3), pages 1413-1428, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:96:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03621-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03621-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tiffany Smith & Benjamin Zaitchik & Julia Gohlke, 2013. "Heat waves in the United States: definitions, patterns and trends," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 811-825, June.
    2. Amir Shabbar & Barrie Bonsal, 2003. "An Assessment of Changes in Winter Cold and Warm Spells over Canada," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 29(2), pages 173-188, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Indrė Gečaitė & Egidijus Rimkus, 2023. "Wintertime cold and warm spells in the eastern part of the Baltic Sea region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(3), pages 2435-2456, February.

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