IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/35521.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Multiple Threshold Effects for Temperature and Mortality

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Ping-Yu
  • Chen, Chi-Chung
  • Chang, Chia-Lin

Abstract

Heat waves and cold fronts have become frequent of late, and have caused serious disruptions around the world, especially in the mid- and high-latitudes. In future, human beings are likely to face more serious, frequent and long-lasting extreme climate events, with consequent greater damage to human life. This paper uses the multiple panel threshold model to test whether there are threshold effects between temperature and mortality, using a panel of 78 major cities in 22 OECD countries for 1990-2008. From the empirical analysis, we find that the relationship between temperature and mortality has three threshold effects, namely 15.21℉ (-9.33℃), 46.97℉ (8.32℃), and 87.53℉ (30.85℃). If the temperature is below 15.21℉ (-9.33℃), the magnitude of the temperature effect below 15.21℉ (-9.33℃) is greater than the effect between 15.21℉ (-9.33₀C) and 46.97℉ (8.32₀C). When the temperature exceeds 87.53℉ (30.85℃), higher temperature leads to higher mortality rate. Based on the estimated coefficients of mean temperatures in four regimes, we separate 78 cities into five areas with latitudes below 30°, 31°-40°, 41°-50°, and 61°-70°, and predict the impacts of future climate change on mortality for 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2061-2100. In summer, climate is predicted to increase mortality rates for 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2061-2100. For latitudes 41°-50° and 51°-60°, the increased mortality rate is much larger than for other latitudes. In winter, the increased magnitude induced by climate change is found to be greater than in summer.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Ping-Yu & Chen, Chi-Chung & Chang, Chia-Lin, 2011. "Multiple Threshold Effects for Temperature and Mortality," MPRA Paper 35521, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35521
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35521/1/MPRA_paper_35521.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eric Neumayer, 2003. "Socioeconomic Factors and Suicide Rates at Large-unit Aggregate Levels: A Comment," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(13), pages 2769-2776, December.
    2. Platt, Stephen, 1984. "Unemployment and suicidal behaviour: A review of the literature," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 93-115, January.
    3. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    4. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 315-352, June.
    5. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    6. James P. Smith, 1999. "Healthy Bodies and Thick Wallets: The Dual Relation between Health and Economic Status," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 145-166, Spring.
    7. Brenner, M. Harvey & Mooney, Anne, 1983. "Unemployment and health in the context of economic change," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 17(16), pages 1125-1138, January.
    8. McLeod, C.B. & Lavis, J.N. & Mustard, C.A. & Stoddart, G.L., 2003. "Income Inequality, Household Income, and Health Status in Canada: A Prospective Cohort Study," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 93(8), pages 1287-1293.
    9. Christoph Schär & Pier Luigi Vidale & Daniel Lüthi & Christoph Frei & Christian Häberli & Mark A. Liniger & Christof Appenzeller, 2004. "The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves," Nature, Nature, vol. 427(6972), pages 332-336, January.
    10. Buckley, Neil J. & Denton, Frank T. & Leslie Robb, A. & Spencer, Byron G., 2004. "The transition from good to poor health: an econometric study of the older population," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 1013-1034, September.
    11. Vandentorren, S. & Suzan, F. & Medina, S. & Pascal, M. & Maulpoix, A. & Cohen, J.-C. & Ledrans, M., 2004. "Mortality in 13 French cities during the August 2003 heat wave," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 94(9), pages 1518-1520.
    12. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    13. Kyung‐So Im & Junsoo Lee & Margie Tieslau, 2005. "Panel LM Unit‐root Tests with Level Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 393-419, June.
    14. Ulf-G. Gerdtham & Magnus Johannesson, 2004. "Absolute Income, Relative Income, Income Inequality, and Mortality," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(1).
    15. Greenberg, J.H. & Bromberg, J. & Reed, C.M. & Gustafson, T.L. & Beauchamp, R.A., 1983. "The epidemiology of heat-related deaths, Texas-1950, 1970-79, and 1980," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 73(7), pages 805-807.
    16. Burr, Jeffrey A. & McCall, Patricia L. & Powell-Griner, Eve, 1997. "Female labor force participation and suicide," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 44(12), pages 1847-1859, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Ping-Yu & Chang, Chia-Lin & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2010. "Estimating the Impacts of Climate Change on Mortality in OECD Countries," MPRA Paper 27915, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Strikholm, Birgit & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2005. "Determining the Number of Regimes in a Threshold Autoregressive Model Using Smooth Transition Autoregressions," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 578, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Feb 2005.
    3. Mei-Hui Wang & Tai-Hsin Huang, 2009. "Threshold effects of financial status on the cost frontiers of financial institutions in nondynamic panels," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(26), pages 3389-3401.
    4. Rod Falvey & Neil Foster & David Greenaway, 2009. "Trade, imitative ability and intellectual property rights," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 373-404, October.
    5. Neil Foster, 2006. "Exports, growth and threshold effects in Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(6), pages 1056-1074.
    6. Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2002. "Estimation and model selection based inference in single and multiple threshold models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 319-352, October.
    7. Dieter Nautz & Juliane Scharff, 2012. "Inflation and relative price variability in the euro area: evidence from a panel threshold model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 449-460, February.
    8. Birgit Strikholm & Timo Teräsvirta, 2006. "A sequential procedure for determining the number of regimes in a threshold autoregressive model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(3), pages 472-491, November.
    9. Hung-pin Lai, 2013. "Estimation of the threshold stochastic frontier model in the presence of an endogenous sample split variable," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 227-237, October.
    10. Chiu, Chien-Liang & Chang, Ting-Huan, 2009. "What proportion of renewable energy supplies is needed to initially mitigate CO2 emissions in OECD member countries?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(6-7), pages 1669-1674, August.
    11. Massacci, Daniele, 2017. "Least squares estimation of large dimensional threshold factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(1), pages 101-129.
    12. Zhang, Xiaobei & Wang, Xiaojun, 2021. "Measures of human capital and the mechanics of economic growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    13. Stöllinger, Roman, 2013. "International spillovers in a world of technology clubs," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 19-35.
    14. Abdulqadir, Idris A. & Asongu, Simplice A., 2022. "The asymmetric effect of internet access on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 44-61.
    15. Che, Chou Ming, 2013. "Panel threshold analysis of Taiwan's outbound visitors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 787-793.
    16. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2013:i:114 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Octavio Fernández-Amador & Joseph F. Francois & Doris A. Oberdabernig & Patrick Tomberger, 2020. "Economic growth, sectoral structures, and environmental methane footprints," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(13), pages 1460-1475, March.
    18. Gerdtham, Ulf-G & Lundborg, Petter & Lyttkens, Carl Hampus & Nystedt, Paul, 2012. "Do Socioeconomic Factors Really Explain Income-Related Inequalities in Health? Applying a Twin Design to Standard Decomposition Analysis," Working Papers 2012:21, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    19. Camilla Mastromarco & Laura Serlenga & Yongcheol Shin, 2012. "Is Globalization Driving Efficiency? A Threshold Stochastic Frontier Panel Data Modeling Approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 563-579, August.
    20. Fabio Canova, 2004. "Testing for Convergence Clubs in Income Per Capita: A Predictive Density Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(1), pages 49-77, February.
    21. Sun, Yuying & Han, Ai & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang, 2018. "Threshold autoregressive models for interval-valued time series data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(2), pages 414-446.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multiple panel threshold model; temperature; mortality rates; climate change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35521. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.