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Estimating heat wave-related mortality in Europe using singular spectrum analysis

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  • Steffen Merte

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

Estimating the impact of heat waves on human mortality is key when it comes to the design of effective climate change adaptation measures. As the usual approach—relying on detailed health data in form of hospital records—is not feasible for many countries, a different methodology is needed. This work presents such an approach. Based on singular spectrum analysis and using monthly mortality rates—partly ranging back to 1960—it derives excess mortality estimates for 27 European countries. Excess mortality is then regressed against a heat wave measure in order to assess the health impacts of extreme heat. The analysis demonstrates that many European countries are severely affected by heat waves: On average, 0.61%—and up to 1.14% in case of Portugal—of all deaths are caused by extreme heat events. This finding confirms the understanding that climate change is a major environmental risk to public health: In the 27 examined European countries, over 28,000 people die every year due to exposure to extreme heat.

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  • Steffen Merte, 2017. "Estimating heat wave-related mortality in Europe using singular spectrum analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 321-330, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:142:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1937-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1937-9
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kerstin Pfeifer & Daniel Oudin Åström & Žanna Martinsone & Darja Kaļužnaja & Anna Oudin, 2020. "Evaluating Mortality Response Associated with Two Different Nordic Heat Warning Systems in Riga, Latvia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-10, October.
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    4. Perera, A.T.D. & Zhao, Bingyu & Wang, Zhe & Soga, Kenichi & Hong, Tianzhen, 2023. "Optimal design of microgrids to improve wildfire resilience for vulnerable communities at the wildland-urban interface," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).
    5. Chenyu Du & Peihao Song & Kun Wang & Ang Li & Yongge Hu & Kaihua Zhang & Xiaoli Jia & Yuan Feng & Meng Wu & Kexin Qu & Yangyang Zhang & Shidong Ge, 2022. "Investigating the Trends and Drivers between Urbanization and the Land Surface Temperature: A Case Study of Zhengzhou, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-16, October.
    6. Dan Wanyama & Erin L. Bunting & Nicholas Weil & David Keellings, 2023. "Delineating and characterizing changes in heat wave events across the United States climate regions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-23, February.

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