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Evaluating long-term emission impacts of large-scale electric vehicle deployment in the US using a human-Earth systems model

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  • Ou, Yang
  • Kittner, Noah
  • Babaee, Samaneh
  • Smith, Steven J.
  • Nolte, Christopher G.
  • Loughlin, Daniel H.

Abstract

While large-scale adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) globally would reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) and traditional air pollutant emissions from the transportation sector, emissions from the electric sector, refineries, and potentially other sources would change in response. Here, a multi-sector human-Earth systems model is used to evaluate the net long-term emission implications of large-scale EV adoption in the US over widely differing pathways of the evolution of the electric sector. Our results indicate that high EV adoption would decrease net CO2 emissions through 2050, even for a scenario where all electric sector capacity additions through 2050 are fossil fuel technologies. Greater net CO2 reductions would be realized for scenarios that emphasize renewables or decarbonization of electricity production. Net air pollutant emission changes in 2050 are relatively small compared to expected overall decreases from recent levels to 2050. States participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative experience greater CO2 and air pollutant reductions on a percentage basis. These results suggest that coordinated, multi-sector planning can greatly enhance the climate and environmental benefits of EVs. Additional factors are identified that influence the net emission impacts of EVs, including the retirement of coal capacity, refinery operations under reduced gasoline demands, and price-induced fuel switching in residential heating and in the industrial sector.

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  • Ou, Yang & Kittner, Noah & Babaee, Samaneh & Smith, Steven J. & Nolte, Christopher G. & Loughlin, Daniel H., 2021. "Evaluating long-term emission impacts of large-scale electric vehicle deployment in the US using a human-Earth systems model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:300:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921007698
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117364
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yang, Tianqi & Shu, Yun & Zhang, Shaohui & Wang, Hongchang & Zhu, Jinwei & Wang, Fan, 2023. "Impacts of end-use electrification on air quality and CO2 emissions in China's northern cities in 2030," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    3. Yu, Biying & Tan, Jin-Xiao & Zhang, Shitong, 2024. "Uncertainties in the technological pathway towards low-carbon freight transport under carbon neutral target in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
    4. Tianye Wang & Ekundayo Shittu, 2023. "Simulating the Impact of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act on State-Level CO 2 Emissions: An Integrated Assessment Model Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-16, December.
    5. Pan, Shuai & Yu, Wendi & Fulton, Lewis M. & Jung, Jia & Choi, Yunsoo & Gao, H. Oliver, 2023. "Impacts of the large-scale use of passenger electric vehicles on public health in 30 US. metropolitan areas," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    6. Christopher Hoehne & Matteo Muratori & Paige Jadun & Brian Bush & Arthur Yip & Catherine Ledna & Laura Vimmerstedt & Kara Podkaminer & Ookie Ma, 2023. "Exploring decarbonization pathways for USA passenger and freight mobility," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.

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