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Transportation emissions scenarios for New York City under different carbon intensities of electricity and electric vehicle adoption rates

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  • Mine Isik

    (US Environmental Protection Agency)

  • Rebecca Dodder

    (US Environmental Protection Agency)

  • P. Ozge Kaplan

    (US Environmental Protection Agency)

Abstract

Like many cities around the world, New York City is establishing policies to reduce CO2 emissions from all energy sectors by 2050. Understanding the impact of varying degrees of electric vehicle adoption and CO2 intensities on emissions reduction in the city is critical. Here, using a technology-rich, bottom-up, energy system optimization model, we analyse the cost and air emissions impacts of New York City’s proposed CO2 reduction policies for the transportation sector through a scenario framework. Our analysis reveals that the electrification of light-duty vehicles at earlier periods is essential for deeper reductions in air emissions. When further combined with energy efficiency improvements, these actions contribute to CO2 reductions under the scenarios of more CO2-intense electricity. Substantial reliance on fossil fuels and a need for structural change pose challenges to cost-effective CO2 reductions in the transportation sector. Here we find that uncertainties associated with decarbonization of the electric grid have a minimum influence on the cost-effectiveness of CO2 reduction pathways for the transportation sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Mine Isik & Rebecca Dodder & P. Ozge Kaplan, 2021. "Transportation emissions scenarios for New York City under different carbon intensities of electricity and electric vehicle adoption rates," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 92-104, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natene:v:6:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41560-020-00740-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41560-020-00740-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed Foda & Moataz Mohamed & Hany Farag & Ehab El-Saadany, 2023. "A resilient battery electric bus transit system configuration," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Liu, Yuechen Sophia & Tayarani, Mohammad & Gao, H. Oliver, 2022. "An activity-based travel and charging behavior model for simulating battery electric vehicle charging demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    3. Yuan, Quan & Ye, Yujian & Tang, Yi & Liu, Yuanchang & Strbac, Goran, 2022. "A novel deep-learning based surrogate modeling of stochastic electric vehicle traffic user equilibrium in low-carbon electricity–transportation nexus," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 315(C).
    4. Jiang, Hong-Dian & Xue, Mei-Mei & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Masui, Toshihiko & Ren, Zhong-Yuan, 2022. "How do demand-side policies contribute to the electrification and decarburization of private transportation in China? A CGE-based analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    5. Zhou, Xi-Yin & Xu, Zhicheng & Zheng, Jialin & Zhou, Ya & Lei, Kun & Fu, Jiafeng & Khu, Soon-Thiam & Yang, Junfeng, 2023. "Internal spillover effect of carbon emission between transportation sectors and electricity generation sectors," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 356-366.
    6. Fang, Yan Ru & Peng, Wei & Urpelainen, Johannes & Hossain, M.S. & Qin, Yue & Ma, Teng & Ren, Ming & Liu, Xiaorui & Zhang, Silu & Huang, Chen & Dai, Hancheng, 2023. "Neutralizing China's transportation sector requires combined decarbonization efforts from power and hydrogen supply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 349(C).
    7. Foda, Ahmed & Mohamed, Moataz, 2024. "The impacts of optimization approaches on BEB system configuration in transit," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 12-23.
    8. John E. T. Bistline & Geoffrey Blanford & John Grant & Eladio Knipping & David L. McCollum & Uarporn Nopmongcol & Heidi Scarth & Tejas Shah & Greg Yarwood, 2022. "Economy-wide evaluation of CO2 and air quality impacts of electrification in the United States," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    9. Xinguang Li & Tong Lv & Jun Zhan & Shen Wang & Fuquan Pan, 2022. "Carbon Emission Measurement of Urban Green Passenger Transport: A Case Study of Qingdao," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-16, August.
    10. Ou, Yang & Kittner, Noah & Babaee, Samaneh & Smith, Steven J. & Nolte, Christopher G. & Loughlin, Daniel H., 2021. "Evaluating long-term emission impacts of large-scale electric vehicle deployment in the US using a human-Earth systems model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    11. Ruixue Liu & Guannan He & Xizhe Wang & Dharik Mallapragada & Hongbo Zhao & Yang Shao-Horn & Benben Jiang, 2024. "A cross-scale framework for evaluating flexibility values of battery and fuel cell electric vehicles," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    12. Thi Ngoc Nguyen & Felix Muesgens, 2024. "Fuel tax loss in a world of electric mobility: A window of opportunity for congestion pricing," Papers 2409.20033, arXiv.org.
    13. Feng Dong & Guoqing Li & Yajie Liu & Qing Xu & Caixia Li, 2023. "Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Cross-Industry Synergy of Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Key Industries in the City in Jiangsu Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-27, February.
    14. Lisa Winkler & Drew Pearce & Jenny Nelson & Oytun Babacan, 2023. "The effect of sustainable mobility transition policies on cumulative urban transport emissions and energy demand," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    15. Zhou, Yuekuan, 2024. "Lifecycle battery carbon footprint analysis for battery sustainability with energy digitalization and artificial intelligence," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 371(C).

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