Impacts of end-use electrification on air quality and CO2 emissions in China's northern cities in 2030

Urban activities such as transportation and household heating and cooking, contribute to current air pollution and climate change. Electrification policies such as the transition to electric vehicles and the substitution of household coal with electricity, have been implemented at unprecedented levels in the “2 + 26” Cities (i.e., Beijing, Tianjin and 26 other cities in northern China), to reduce air pollutants and CO2 emissions at the point of use. We employed the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution Interactions and Synergies model to evaluate the impact of vehicle/residential electrification on air quality and CO2 emissions from 2017 to 2030. Contribution of the end-use sector depends on its relative importance to the emissions of each pollutant and the ability of each sector to reduce their emissions through electrification. Accordingly, electrifying the residential sector improved the air quality in the cities of Shijiazhuang, Xingtai and Baoding, while electrifying the transportation sector generated more local benefits in Beijing and Tianjin. The combination of fleet electrification and coal-to-electricity could reduce the annual mean PM2.5 concentration by 2.0 μg/m3 (4.4%) throughout the “2 + 26” Cities in 2030. Moreover, more rapid decarbonization of the power sector is needed to maximize the synergies between air quality and climate goals.