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Climate impact of transportation A model comparison

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  • Bastien Girod
  • Detlef Vuuren
  • Maria Grahn
  • Alban Kitous
  • Son Kim
  • Page Kyle

Abstract

Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO 2 emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global service demand (passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers), fuel use, and CO 2 emissions of five different global transport models using harmonized input assumptions on income and population. For four models we also evaluate the impact of a carbon tax. All models project a steep increase in service demand over the century. Technology change is important for limiting energy consumption and CO 2 emissions, the study also shows that in order to stabilise or even decrease emissions radical changes would be required. While all models project liquid fossil fuels dominating up to 2050, they differ regarding the use of alternative fuels (natural gas, hydrogen, biofuels, and electricity), because of different fuel price projections. The carbon tax of 200 USD/tCO 2 in 2050 stabilizes or reverses global emission growth in all models. Besides common findings many differences in the model assumptions and projections indicate room for further understanding long-term trends and uncertainty in future transport systems. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Bastien Girod & Detlef Vuuren & Maria Grahn & Alban Kitous & Son Kim & Page Kyle, 2013. "Climate impact of transportation A model comparison," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 595-608, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:118:y:2013:i:3:p:595-608
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0663-6
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    1. Yin, Xiang & Chen, Wenying & Eom, Jiyong & Clarke, Leon E. & Kim, Son H. & Patel, Pralit L. & Yu, Sha & Kyle, G. Page, 2015. "China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 233-248.
    2. Daly, Hannah E. & Ramea, Kalai & Chiodi, Alessandro & Yeh, Sonia & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Gallachóir, Brian Ó, 2014. "Incorporating travel behaviour and travel time into TIMES energy system models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 429-439.
    3. Bosetti, Valentina & Longden, Thomas, 2013. "Light duty vehicle transportation and global climate policy: The importance of electric drive vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 209-219.
    4. Laurent Franckx, 2019. "Working Paper 01-19 - Future evolution of the car stock in Belgium: CASMO, the new satellite of PLANET," Working Papers 1901, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    5. van Ruijven, Bas J. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Boskaljon, Willem & Neelis, Maarten L. & Saygin, Deger & Patel, Martin K., 2016. "Long-term model-based projections of energy use and CO2 emissions from the global steel and cement industries," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 15-36.
    6. Edelenbosch, O.Y. & Kermeli, K. & Crijns-Graus, W. & Worrell, E. & Bibas, R. & Fais, B. & Fujimori, S. & Kyle, P. & Sano, F. & van Vuuren, D.P., 2017. "Comparing projections of industrial energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in long-term energy models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 701-710.
    7. Maria Grahn & Erica Klampfl & Margaret Whalen & Timothy Wallington, 2013. "Sustainable Mobility: Using a Global Energy Model to Inform Vehicle Technology Choices in a Decarbonized Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(5), pages 1-18, April.
    8. Pan, Xunzhang & Wang, Hailin & Wang, Lining & Chen, Wenying, 2018. "Decarbonization of China's transportation sector: In light of national mitigation toward the Paris Agreement goals," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 853-864.
    9. Blanco, Herib & Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Nijs, Wouter & Thiel, Christian & Faaij, André, 2019. "Soft-linking of a behavioral model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    10. Yan, Shiyu & De Bruin, Kelly & Dennehy, Emer & Curtis, John, 2020. "A freight transport demand, energy and emission model with technological choices," Papers WP669, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    11. Soflaei, Farzaneh & Shokouhian, Mehdi & Zhu, Wenyi, 2017. "Socio-environmental sustainability in traditional courtyard houses of Iran and China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1147-1169.
    12. Paladugula, Anantha Lakshmi & Kholod, Nazar & Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Ghosh, Probal Pratap & Pal, Sarbojit & Clarke, Leon & Evans, Meredydd & Kyle, Page & Koti, Poonam Nagar & Parikh, Kirit & Qamar, Sha, 2018. "A multi-model assessment of energy and emissions for India's transportation sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 10-18.
    13. Ou, Yang & Kittner, Noah & Babaee, Samaneh & Smith, Steven J. & Nolte, Christopher G. & Loughlin, Daniel H., 2021. "Evaluating long-term emission impacts of large-scale electric vehicle deployment in the US using a human-Earth systems model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    14. Cai, Yongxia & Woollacott, Jared & Beach, Robert H. & Rafelski, Lauren E. & Ramig, Christopher & Shelby, Michael, 2023. "Insights from adding transportation sector detail into an economy-wide model: The case of the ADAGE CGE model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    15. Runsen Zhang & Tatsuya Hanaoka, 2022. "Cross-cutting scenarios and strategies for designing decarbonization pathways in the transport sector toward carbon neutrality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    16. Zhang, Runsen & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Dai, Hancheng & Hanaoka, Tatsuya, 2018. "Contribution of the transport sector to climate change mitigation: Insights from a global passenger transport model coupled with a computable general equilibrium model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 76-88.
    17. Zhang, Runsen & Zhang, Junyi, 2021. "Long-term pathways to deep decarbonization of the transport sector in the post-COVID world," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 28-36.
    18. Yan, Shiyu & de Bruin, Kelly & Dennehy, Emer & Curtis, John, 2021. "Climate policies for freight transport: Energy and emission projections through 2050," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 11-23.

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