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Taking into account greenhouse gas emissions of electric vehicles for transportation de-carbonization

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  • Gan, Yu
  • Wang, Michael
  • Lu, Zifeng
  • Kelly, Jarod

Abstract

Plug-in electric vehicles pose great potentials to de-carbonize the transportation sector. To jump-start their market deployment, regulations in China, the U.S., and the European Union provide preferential treatments, including counting a single plug-in electric vehicle with multipliers (super-credits) in calculating sales-averaged emissions (regulation dilution effect) and considering zero emissions for the electric mileage by omitting electricity generation emissions (regulation leakage effect). This study quantifies greenhouse gas emission increases due to these two effects in the three markets. We show that plug-in electric vehicles sold in 2012–2025 in the three markets will result in greenhouse gas emission increases of more than 1 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through 2050 relative to the case without the two effects. The increase is 671, 280, and 143 million tonnes in China, the U.S., and the EU, respectively. The dilution effect causes an increase of 615 million tonnes, and the leakage effect 479 million tonnes. As the plug-in electric vehicle market grows, their super-credits should be gradually withdrawn, and well-to-wheels emissions need to be considered to achieve holistic greenhouse gas emission reductions. Future regulations should be carefully designed to incentivize new technologies while mitigating the risk of increasing emissions elsewhere so that the intent of environmental regulations is not compromised.

Suggested Citation

  • Gan, Yu & Wang, Michael & Lu, Zifeng & Kelly, Jarod, 2021. "Taking into account greenhouse gas emissions of electric vehicles for transportation de-carbonization," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:155:y:2021:i:c:s0301421521002238
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112353
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    Cited by:

    1. Yu Gan & Zifeng Lu & Xin He & Michael Wang & Amer Ahmad Amer, 2023. "Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Light-Duty Passenger Vehicles in China: Towards a Carbon-Neutral Future," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-14, February.
    2. Amela Ajanovic, 2022. "The impact of COVID‐19 on the market prospects of electric passenger cars," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(5), September.
    3. Lane, Blake & Kinnon, Michael Mac & Shaffer, Brendan & Samuelsen, Scott, 2022. "Deployment planning tool for environmentally sensitive heavy-duty vehicles and fueling infrastructure," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    4. Kinsella, L. & Stefaniec, A. & Foley, A. & Caulfield, B., 2023. "Pathways to decarbonising the transport sector: The impacts of electrifying taxi fleets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    5. Cotterman, Turner & Fuchs, Erica R.H. & Whitefoot, Kate S. & Combemale, Christophe, 2024. "The transition to electrified vehicles: Evaluating the labor demand of manufacturing conventional versus battery electric vehicle powertrains," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    6. Jun Li & Bin Yang & Mingke He, 2023. "Capabilities Analysis of Electricity Energy Conservation and Carbon Emissions Reduction in Multi-Level Battery Electric Passenger Vehicle in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-24, March.
    7. Ankit R. Patel & Dhaval R. Vyas & Anilkumar Markana & Raja Jayaraman, 2022. "A Conceptual Model for Integrating Sustainable Supply Chain, Electric Vehicles, and Renewable Energy Sources," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-14, November.
    8. Chie Hoon Song, 2023. "Examining the Patent Landscape of E-Fuel Technology," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-19, February.

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