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A Non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process for Electricity Spot Price Modeling and Derivatives Pricing

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Xi Kleisinger-Yu & Vlatka Komaric & Martin Larsson & Markus Regez, 2019. "A multi-factor polynomial framework for long-term electricity forwards with delivery period," Papers 1908.08954, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
  2. Piccirilli, Marco & Schmeck, Maren Diane & Vargiolu, Tiziano, 2021. "Capturing the power options smile by an additive two-factor model for overlapping futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
  3. Galarneau-Vincent, Rémi & Gauthier, Geneviève & Godin, Frédéric, 2023. "Foreseeing the worst: Forecasting electricity DART spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
  4. Benth, Fred Espen & Biegler-König, Richard & Kiesel, Rüdiger, 2013. "An empirical study of the information premium on electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 55-77.
  5. Marcus Eriksson & Jukka Lempa & Trygve Nilssen, 2014. "Swing options in commodity markets: a multidimensional Lévy diffusion model," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 79(1), pages 31-67, February.
  6. Che Mohd Imran Che Taib & Mukminah Darus, 2019. "Spatial-Temporal Modelling of Temperature for Pricing Temperature Index Insurance," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 26(1), pages 87-106, March.
  7. Algieri, Bernardina & Leccadito, Arturo & Tunaru, Diana, 2021. "Risk premia in electricity derivatives markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  8. Benth, Fred Espen & Taib, Che Mohd Imran Che, 2013. "On the speed towards the mean for continuous time autoregressive moving average processes with applications to energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 259-268.
  9. N. K. Nomikos & O. Soldatos, 2008. "Using Affine Jump Diffusion Models for Modelling and Pricing Electricity Derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 41-71.
  10. Nemat Safarov & Colin Atkinson, 2017. "Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants Valuation And Optimization Under Lévy Copulas And Regime Switching," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(01), pages 1-38, February.
  11. Bennedsen, Mikkel, 2017. "A rough multi-factor model of electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 301-313.
  12. Noufel Frikha & Vincent Lemaire, 2012. "Joint Modelling of Gas and Electricity spot prices," Post-Print hal-00421289, HAL.
  13. Weron, Rafal, 2008. "Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1098-1115, May.
  14. Brix, Anne Floor & Lunde, Asger & Wei, Wei, 2018. "A generalized Schwartz model for energy spot prices — Estimation using a particle MCMC method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 560-582.
  15. Deschatre, Thomas & Féron, Olivier & Gruet, Pierre, 2021. "A survey of electricity spot and futures price models for risk management applications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  16. Bannör, Karl & Kiesel, Rüdiger & Nazarova, Anna & Scherer, Matthias, 2016. "Parametric model risk and power plant valuation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 423-434.
  17. Benth, Fred Espen & Koekebakker, Steen, 2008. "Stochastic modeling of financial electricity contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1116-1157, May.
  18. Paul Kruhner & Shijie Xu, 2023. "Statistically consistent term structures have affine geometry," Papers 2308.02246, arXiv.org.
  19. Michele Leonardo Bianchi, 2012. "An empirical comparison of alternative credit default swap pricing models," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 882, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  20. Christian Bender, 2011. "Dual pricing of multi-exercise options under volume constraints," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26, January.
  21. Fred Espen Benth & Paul Kruhner, 2015. "Approximation of forward curve models in commodity markets with arbitrage-free finite dimensional models," Papers 1512.05983, arXiv.org.
  22. Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo Figueroa & Helyette Geman, 2009. "Modelling Electricity Prices with Forward Looking Capacity Constraints," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 103-122.
  23. Latini, Luca & Piccirilli, Marco & Vargiolu, Tiziano, 2019. "Mean-reverting no-arbitrage additive models for forward curves in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 157-170.
  24. Harold M. Hastings & Tai Young-Taft & Chih-Jui Tsen, 2020. "Ecology, Economics, and Network Dynamics," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_971, Levy Economics Institute.
  25. Fred Espen Benth & Claudia Kluppelberg & Gernot Muller & Linda Vos, 2012. "Futures pricing in electricity markets based on stable CARMA spot models," Papers 1201.1151, arXiv.org.
  26. Hassan Mazengera, 2017. "Derivation Of A Stochastic Loan Repayment Model For Valuing A Revenue-Based Loan Contract," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(03), pages 1-29, September.
  27. Fred Espen Benth & Paul Kruhner, 2014. "Representation of infinite dimensional forward price models in commodity markets," Papers 1403.4111, arXiv.org.
  28. Piergiacomo Sabino, 2021. "Normal Tempered Stable Processes and the Pricing of Energy Derivatives," Papers 2105.03071, arXiv.org.
  29. Birkelund, Ole Henrik & Haugom, Erik & Molnár, Peter & Opdal, Martin & Westgaard, Sjur, 2015. "A comparison of implied and realized volatility in the Nordic power forward market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 288-294.
  30. Cuppari, Rosa I. & Higgins, Chad W. & Characklis, Gregory W., 2021. "Agrivoltaics and weather risk: A diversification strategy for landowners," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
  31. Tim Leung & Kevin W. Lu, 2023. "Monte Carlo Simulation for Trading Under a L\'evy-Driven Mean-Reverting Framework," Papers 2309.05512, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
  32. Kevin W. Lu, 2022. "Calibration for multivariate Lévy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with applications to weak subordination," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 365-396, July.
  33. Mikkel Bennedsen, 2015. "Rough electricity: a new fractal multi-factor model of electricity spot prices," CREATES Research Papers 2015-42, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  34. Schlueter, Stephan, 2010. "A long-term/short-term model for daily electricity prices with dynamic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1074-1081, September.
  35. Markus Hess, 2020. "Pricing electricity forwards under future information on the stochastic mean-reversion level," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 43(2), pages 751-767, December.
  36. Neil Shephard & Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 2008. "Modelling and measuring volatility," Economics Series Working Papers 2008--FE-31, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  37. Maren Diane Schmeck, 2016. "Pricing Options On Forwards In Energy Markets: The Role Of Mean Reversion'S Speed," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(08), pages 1-26, December.
  38. Fred Espen Benth & Marco Piccirilli & Tiziano Vargiolu, 2017. "Additive energy forward curves in a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework," Papers 1709.03310, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2018.
  39. Jiao, Ying & Ma, Chunhua & Scotti, Simone & Sgarra, Carlo, 2019. "A branching process approach to power markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 144-156.
  40. Benth, Fred Espen & Kiesel, Rüdiger & Nazarova, Anna, 2012. "A critical empirical study of three electricity spot price models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1589-1616.
  41. Cummins, Mark & Kiely, Greg & Murphy, Bernard, 2018. "Gas storage valuation under multifactor Lévy processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 167-184.
  42. Díaz, Guzmán & Coto, José & Gómez-Aleixandre, Javier, 2019. "Levelized income loss as a metric of the adaptation of wind and energy storage to variable prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1179-1191.
  43. Godin, Frédéric & Ibrahim, Zinatu, 2021. "An analysis of electricity congestion price patterns in North America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  44. Farshid Mehrdoust & Idin Noorani, 2023. "Valuation of Spark-Spread Option Written on Electricity and Gas Forward Contracts Under Two-Factor Models with Non-Gaussian Lévy Processes," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(2), pages 807-853, February.
  45. Ernstsen, Rune Ramsdal & Boomsma, Trine Krogh, 2018. "Valuation of power plants," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(3), pages 1153-1174.
  46. Marco Piccirilli & Tiziano Vargiolu, 2018. "Optimal Portfolio in Intraday Electricity Markets Modelled by L\'evy-Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Processes," Papers 1807.01979, arXiv.org.
  47. Hain, Martin & Schermeyer, Hans & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Fichtner, Wolf, 2017. "An Electricity Price Modeling Framework for Renewable-Dominant Markets," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 23, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
  48. Carmine De Franco & Peter Tankov & Xavier Warin, 2012. "Numerical methods for the quadratic hedging problem in Markov models with jumps," Papers 1206.5393, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2013.
  49. Angelica Gianfreda & Derek Bunn, 2018. "A Stochastic Latent Moment Model for Electricity Price Formation," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS46, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
  50. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Fred Espen Benth & Almut E. D. Veraart, 2013. "Modelling energy spot prices by volatility modulated L\'{e}vy-driven Volterra processes," Papers 1307.6332, arXiv.org.
  51. Trespalacios, Alfredo & Cortés, Lina M. & Perote, Javier, 2020. "Uncertainty in electricity markets from a semi-nonparametric approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  52. Usman Zafar & Neil Kellard & Dmitri Vinogradov, 2022. "Multistage optimization filter for trend‐based short‐term forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 345-360, March.
  53. Panagiotis Christodoulou & Nils Detering & Thilo Meyer-Brandis, 2018. "Local Risk-Minimization With Multiple Assets Under Illiquidity With Applications In Energy Markets," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(04), pages 1-44, June.
  54. Gonzalez, Jhonny & Moriarty, John & Palczewski, Jan, 2017. "Bayesian calibration and number of jump components in electricity spot price models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 375-388.
  55. Li, Wei & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2022. "Modelling the evolution of wind and solar power infeed forecasts," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
  56. Fred Espen Benth & Jūratė Šaltytė Benth & Steen Koekebakker, 2008. "Stochastic Modeling of Electricity and Related Markets," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 6811, August.
  57. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
  58. Rypdal, Martin & Løvsletten, Ola, 2013. "Modeling electricity spot prices using mean-reverting multifractal processes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(1), pages 194-207.
  59. Mehrdoust, Farshid & Noorani, Idin & Kanniainen, Juho, 2024. "Valuation of option price in commodity markets described by a Markov-switching model: A case study of WTI crude oil market," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 228-269.
  60. Maren Diane Schmeck, 2016. "Pricing options on forwards in energy markets: the role of mean reversion's speed," Papers 1602.03402, arXiv.org.
  61. J. Lars Kirkby & Shi-Jie Deng, 2019. "Swing Option Pricing By Dynamic Programming With B-Spline Density Projection," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(08), pages 1-53, December.
  62. Fred Espen Benth & Paul Krühner, 2018. "Approximation of forward curve models in commodity markets with arbitrage-free finite-dimensional models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 327-366, April.
  63. Cartea, Álvaro & Jaimungal, Sebastian & Qin, Zhen, 2019. "Speculative trading of electricity contracts in interconnected locations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 3-20.
  64. René Aïd & Luciano Campi & Nicolas Langrené, 2010. "A structural risk-neutral model for pricing and hedging power derivatives," Working Papers hal-00525800, HAL.
  65. Benth, Fred Espen & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2016. "A Structural Model for Electricity Forward Prices," Working Papers on Finance 1611, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  66. Piergiacomo Sabino, 2022. "Pricing Energy Derivatives in Markets Driven by Tempered Stable and CGMY Processes of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Type," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-23, July.
  67. Niu, Shilei & Insley, Margaret, 2016. "An options pricing approach to ramping rate restrictions at hydro power plants," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 25-52.
  68. Islyaev, Suren & Date, Paresh, 2015. "Electricity futures price models: Calibration and forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(1), pages 144-154.
  69. Nicola Cufaro Petroni & Piergiacomo Sabino, 2019. "Fast Pricing of Energy Derivatives with Mean-reverting Jump-diffusion Processes," Papers 1908.03137, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
  70. Benth, Fred Espen & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2018. "A space-time random field model for electricity forward prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 203-216.
  71. Martin Rypdal & Ola L{o}vsletten, 2012. "Modeling electricity spot prices using mean-reverting multifractal processes," Papers 1201.6137, arXiv.org.
  72. Markus Hess, 2021. "A new approach to wind power futures pricing," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 1235-1252, December.
  73. Nemat Safarov & Colin Atkinson, 2016. "Natural gas-fired power plants valuation and optimisation under Levy copulas and regime-switching," Papers 1607.01207, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
  74. Christian Laudag'e & Florian Aichinger & Sascha Desmettre, 2023. "A Comparative Study of Factor Models for Different Periods of the Electricity Spot Price Market," Papers 2306.07731, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
  75. St'ephane Goutte & Nadia Oudjane & Francesco Russo, 2012. "Variance Optimal Hedging for discrete time processes with independent increments. Application to Electricity Markets," Papers 1205.4089, arXiv.org.
  76. Maren Diane Schmeck & Stefan Schwerin, 2021. "The Effect of Mean-Reverting Processes in the Pricing of Options in the Energy Market: An Arithmetic Approach," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-19, May.
  77. Panagiotis Christodoulou & Nils Detering & Thilo Meyer-Brandis, 2017. "Local risk-minimization with multiple assets under illiquidity with applications in energy markets," Papers 1705.06918, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2018.
  78. Benth, Fred Espen & Cartea, Álvaro & Kiesel, Rüdiger, 2008. "Pricing forward contracts in power markets by the certainty equivalence principle: Explaining the sign of the market risk premium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2006-2021, October.
  79. Claudia Kluppelberg & Thilo Meyer-Brandis & Andrea Schmidt, 2010. "Electricity spot price modelling with a view towards extreme spike risk," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(9), pages 963-974.
  80. Kristina Rognlien Dahl, 2019. "Management of a hydropower system via convex duality," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 89(1), pages 43-71, February.
  81. Piergiacomo Sabino, 2020. "Exact Simulation of Variance Gamma related OU processes: Application to the Pricing of Energy Derivatives," Papers 2004.06786, arXiv.org.
  82. St'ephane Goutte & Nadia Oudjane & Francesco Russo, 2009. "Variance Optimal Hedging for continuous time processes with independent increments and applications," Papers 0912.0372, arXiv.org.
  83. Benth, Fred Espen & Klüppelberg, Claudia & Müller, Gernot & Vos, Linda, 2014. "Futures pricing in electricity markets based on stable CARMA spot models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 392-406.
  84. Fanone, Enzo & Gamba, Andrea & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2013. "The case of negative day-ahead electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 22-34.
  85. Alet Roux & 'Alvaro Guinea Juli'a, 2024. "Closed form solution to zero coupon bond using a linear stochastic delay differential equation," Papers 2402.16428, arXiv.org.
  86. Piergiacomo Sabino, 2021. "Pricing Energy Derivatives in Markets Driven by Tempered Stable and CGMY Processes of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Type," Papers 2103.13252, arXiv.org.
  87. Hain, Martin & Kargus, Tobias & Schermeyer, Hans & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Fichtner, Wolf, 2022. "An electricity price modeling framework for renewable-dominant markets," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 66, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
  88. Konrad Gajewski & Sebastian Ferrando & Pablo Olivares, 2020. "Pricing Energy Contracts under Regime Switching Time-Changed models," Papers 2005.14361, arXiv.org.
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