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Pricing Forward Contracts in Power Markets by the Certainty Equivalence Principle: Explaining the Sign of the Market Risk Premium

Author

Listed:
  • Fred Espen Benth
  • Alvaro Cartea

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

  • Ruediger Kiesel

Abstract

In this paper we provide a framework that explains how the market risk premium, defined as the difference between forward prices and spot forecasts, depends on the risk preferences of market players. In commodities markets this premium is an important indicator of the behaviour of buyers and sellers and their views on the market spanning between short-term and long-term horizons. We show that under certain assumptions it is possible to derive explicit solutions that link levels of risk aversion and market power with market prices of risk and the market risk premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Fred Espen Benth & Alvaro Cartea & Ruediger Kiesel, 2006. "Pricing Forward Contracts in Power Markets by the Certainty Equivalence Principle: Explaining the Sign of the Market Risk Premium," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0611, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:0611
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    File URL: https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/26932
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cartea, Álvaro & Williams, Thomas, 2008. "UK gas markets: The market price of risk and applications to multiple interruptible supply contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 829-846, May.
    2. Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
    3. Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo Figueroa, 2005. "Pricing in Electricity Markets: A Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 313-335.
    4. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    5. Fred Espen Benth & Jan Kallsen & Thilo Meyer-Brandis, 2007. "A Non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process for Electricity Spot Price Modeling and Derivatives Pricing," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 153-169.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contango; backwardation; market price of risk; electricity forwards; market risk premium; forward risk premium; forward bias.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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