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Mean-reverting no-arbitrage additive models for forward curves in energy markets

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  • Latini, Luca
  • Piccirilli, Marco
  • Vargiolu, Tiziano

Abstract

In this paper we present an additive no-arbitrage model for energy forward markets capable to exhibit mean-reversion. The model naturally incorporates term structures for both the mean-reversion level and the volatility of forward prices and it is able to reproduce the seasonalities empirically observed in gas and power markets. We also present a method to estimate the model parameters, based on quadratic variation/covariation for the volatility and on constrained maximum-likelihood estimation for the mean-reversion speed and level. We apply this technique to time series of Phelix Base forward products.

Suggested Citation

  • Latini, Luca & Piccirilli, Marco & Vargiolu, Tiziano, 2019. "Mean-reverting no-arbitrage additive models for forward curves in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 157-170.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:79:y:2019:i:c:p:157-170
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.03.001
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    14. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1433 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Piccirilli, Marco & Schmeck, Maren Diane & Vargiolu, Tiziano, 2021. "Capturing the power options smile by an additive two-factor model for overlapping futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    2. Marco Piccirilli & Tiziano Vargiolu, 2018. "Optimal Portfolio in Intraday Electricity Markets Modelled by L\'evy-Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Processes," Papers 1807.01979, arXiv.org.
    3. Wieger Hinderks & Andreas Wagner & Ralf Korn, 2018. "A structural Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework for consistent intraday, spot, and futures electricity prices," Papers 1803.08831, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2019.
    4. Roberto Baviera & Pietro Manzoni, 2024. "Fast and General Simulation of L\'evy-driven OU processes for Energy Derivatives," Papers 2401.15483, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    5. Giorgia Callegaro & Andrea Mazzoran & Carlo Sgarra, 2019. "A Self-Exciting Modelling Framework for Forward Prices in Power Markets," Papers 1910.13286, arXiv.org.
    6. Piergiacomo Sabino, 2021. "Pricing Energy Derivatives in Markets Driven by Tempered Stable and CGMY Processes of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Type," Papers 2103.13252, arXiv.org.
    7. Olivier Feron & Pierre Gruet, 2020. "Estimation of the number of factors in a multi-factorial Heath-Jarrow-Morton model in electricity markets," Working Papers hal-02880824, HAL.
    8. Wieger Hinderks & Ralf Korn & Andreas Wagner, 2020. "Unifying the theory of storage and the risk premium by an unobservable intrinsic electricity price," Papers 2011.03987, arXiv.org.
    9. Piergiacomo Sabino, 2021. "Normal Tempered Stable Processes and the Pricing of Energy Derivatives," Papers 2105.03071, arXiv.org.
    10. Fred Espen Benth & Marco Piccirilli & Tiziano Vargiolu, 2017. "Additive energy forward curves in a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework," Papers 1709.03310, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2018.
    11. Thomas Deschatre & Olivier F'eron & Pierre Gruet, 2021. "A survey of electricity spot and futures price models for risk management applications," Papers 2103.16918, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    12. Maren Diane Schmeck & Stefan Schwerin, 2021. "The Effect of Mean-Reverting Processes in the Pricing of Options in the Energy Market: An Arithmetic Approach," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-19, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Additive models for energy forward contracts; Mean-reversion; Heath-Jarrow-Morton methodology; Term structure of volatility; Quadratic variation/covariation; Maximum likelihood estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q49 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Other

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