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Approximation of forward curve models in commodity markets with arbitrage-free finite dimensional models

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  • Fred Espen Benth
  • Paul Kruhner

Abstract

In this paper we show how to approximate a Heath-Jarrow-Morton dynamics for the forward prices in commodity markets with arbitrage-free models which have a finite dimensional state space. Moreover, we recover a closed form representation of the forward price dynamics in the approximation models and derive the rate of convergence uniformly over an interval of time to maturity to the true dynamics under certain additional smoothness conditions. In the Markovian case we can strengthen the convergence to be uniform over time as well. Our results are based on the construction of a convenient Riesz basis on the state space of the term structure dynamics.

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  • Fred Espen Benth & Paul Kruhner, 2015. "Approximation of forward curve models in commodity markets with arbitrage-free finite dimensional models," Papers 1512.05983, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1512.05983
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tomas Björk & Lars Svensson, 2001. "On the Existence of Finite‐Dimensional Realizations for Nonlinear Forward Rate Models," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 205-243, April.
    2. Fred Benth & Jukka Lempa, 2014. "Optimal portfolios in commodity futures markets," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 407-430, April.
    3. Fred Espen Benth & Jan Kallsen & Thilo Meyer-Brandis, 2007. "A Non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process for Electricity Spot Price Modeling and Derivatives Pricing," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 153-169.
    4. Camilla Landén & Tomas Björk, 2002. "On the construction of finite dimensional realizations for nonlinear forward rate models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 303-331.
    5. Fred Espen Benth & Paul Kruhner, 2014. "Representation of infinite dimensional forward price models in commodity markets," Papers 1403.4111, arXiv.org.
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