Why the Far-Distant Future Should Be Discounted at Its Lowest Possible Rate

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1. 224 – Torturing ourselves over discounting
   by David Pannell in Pannell Discussions on 2012-09-16 18:07:43
2. 328 – Weitzman discounting
   by David Pannell in Pannell Discussions on 2019-10-07 15:08:25

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Cited by:

1. Price, Colin, 2018. "Declining discount rate and the social cost of carbon: Forestry consequences," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 39-45.
2. Nicole El Karoui & Caroline Hillairet & Mohamed Mrad, 2022. "Ramsey rule with forward/backward utility for long-term yield curves modeling," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 45(1), pages 375-414, June.
3. Pizer, William A. & Kopp, Raymond, 2005. "Calculating the Costs of Environmental Regulation," Handbook of Environmental Economics, in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1307-1351, Elsevier.
   • Pizer, William & Kopp, Raymond, 2003. "Calculating the Cost of Environmental Regulation," RFF Working Paper Series dp-03-06, Resources for the Future.
   • Pizer, William A. & Kopp, Raymond J., 2003. "Calculating the Costs of Environmental Regulation," Discussion Papers 10762, Resources for the Future.
4. Hepburn, Cameron & Groom, Ben, 2007. "Gamma discounting and expected net future value," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 99-109, January.
5. Traeger, Christian P., 2012. "What's the Rate? Disentangling the Weitzman and the Gollier Effect," CUDARE Working Papers 121932, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
6. Maria Sandsmark & Haakon Vennemo, 2007. "A portfolio approach to climate investments: CAPM and endogenous risk," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 37(4), pages 681-695, August.
7. Szekeres, Szabolcs, 2020. "Checking the Evidence for Declining Discount Rates," MPRA Paper 102233, University Library of Munich, Germany.
8. Bracke, Philippe & Pinchbeck, Ted & Wyatt, James, 2014. "The time value of housing: historical evidence from London residential leases," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64504, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
   • Philippe Bracke & Ted Pinchbeck & James Wyatt, 2014. "The Time Value of Housing: Historical Evidence from London Residential Leases," SERC Discussion Papers 0168, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
9. Rout, Tracy M. & Moore, Joslin L. & Possingham, Hugh P. & McCarthy, Michael A., 2011. "Allocating biosecurity resources between preventing, detecting, and eradicating island invasions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 54-62.
10. David F. Burgess & Richard O. Zerbe, 2013. "Appropriate discounting for benefit–cost analysis," Chapters, in: Scott O. Farrow & Richard Zerbe, Jr. (ed.), Principles and Standards for Benefit–Cost Analysis, chapter 7, pages 247-263, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    • Burgess David F & Zerbe Richard O, 2011. "Appropriate Discounting for Benefit-Cost Analysis," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-20, April.
11. Gluzberg, Victor E. & Katz, Yuri A., 2019. "Planetary boundaries of consumption growth: Declining social discount rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 521(C), pages 362-374.
12. Gollier, Christian, 2012. "A theory of rational short-termism with uncertain betas," LERNA Working Papers 12.14.371, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    • Gollier, Christian, 2013. "A theory of rational short-termism with uncertain betas," TSE Working Papers 13-389, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    • Gollier, Christian, 2013. "A theory of rational short-termism with uncertain betas," IDEI Working Papers 771, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
13. Rick Van der Ploeg & Bas Jacobs, 2010. "Precautionary Climate Change Policies And Optimal Redistribution," OxCarre Working Papers 049, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
14. Gollier, Christian, 2002. "Time Horizon and the Discount Rate," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 463-473, December.
15. Oz Sahin & Rodney Stewart & Fernanda Helfer, 2015. "Bridging the Water Supply–demand Gap in Australia: Coupling Water Demand Efficiency with Rain-independent Desalination Supply," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 253-272, January.
16. Gollier, Christian, 2010. "Expected net present value, expected net future value, and the Ramsey rule," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 142-148, March.
    • GOLLIER Christian, 2008. "Expected net present value, expected net future value, and the Ramsey rule," LERNA Working Papers 08.29.273, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    • Christian Gollier, 2009. "Expected Net Present Value, Expected Net Future Value, and the Ramsey Rule," CESifo Working Paper Series 2643, CESifo.
    • Gollier, Christian, 2009. "Expected Net Present Value, Expected Net Future Value, and the Ramsey Rule," TSE Working Papers 09-049, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    • Gollier, Christian, 2009. "Expected Net Present Value, Expected Net Future Value, and the Ramsey Rule," IDEI Working Papers 557, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
17. Hoel, Michael & Sterner, Thomas, 2006. "Discounting and relative prices in assessing future environmental damages," Working Papers in Economics 199, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
18. Kevin Rennert & Brian C. Prest & William A. Pizer & Richard G. Newell & David Anthoff & Cora Kingdon & Lisa Rennels & Roger Cooke & Adrian E. Raftery & Hana Sevcikova & Frank Errickson, 2021. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 223-305.
    • Rennert, Kevin & Prest, Brian C. & Pizer, William & Newell, Richard G. & Anthoff, David & Kingdon, Cora & Rennels, Lisa & Cooke, Roger & Raftery, Adrian E. & Ševčíková, Hana & Errickson, Frank, 2021. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates," RFF Working Paper Series 21-28, Resources for the Future.
19. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    • Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2013. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," NBER Working Papers 19578, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
20. Phoebe Koundouri & Theologos Pantelidis & Ben Groom & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2007. "Discounting the distant future: How much does model selection affect the certainty equivalent rate?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 641-656.
    • Ekaterini Panopoulou & B. Groom & P. Koundouri & Theologos Pantelidis, 2005. "Discounting the distant future: How much does model selection affect the certainty equivalent rate?," Economics Department Working Paper Series n1480105, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
21. Eric Fesselmeyer & Haoming Liu & Alberto Salvo, 2022. "Declining discount rates in Singapore's market for privately developed apartments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 330-350, March.
22. Глущенко К. П., 2012. "Оценка эффективности транспортных проектов: опыт и проблемы (часть 2). Transport project appraisal: experience and problems (part 2)," Мир экономики и управления // Вестник НГУ. Cерия: Cоциально-экономические науки, Socionet;Новосибирский государственный университет, vol. 12(1), pages 40-46.
    • Глущенко К.П., 2011. "Оценка эффективности транспортных проектов: опыт и проблемы (часть 1).Transport project appraisal: experience and problems. part I," Мир экономики и управления // Вестник НГУ. Cерия: Cоциально-экономические науки, Socionet;Новосибирский государственный университет, vol. 11(4), pages 93-107.
    • Gluschenko, Konstantin, 2011. "Оценка Эффективности Транспортных Проектов: Опыт И Проблемы [Transport project appraisal: Experience and problems]," MPRA Paper 34096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
23. Louberge, Henri & Villeneuve, Stephane & Chesney, Marc, 2002. "Long-term risk management of nuclear waste: a real options approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 157-180, November.
    • CHESNEY, Marc & LOUBERGE, Henri & VILLENEUVE, Stéphane, 2001. "Long-term risk management of nuclear waste : a real options approach," HEC Research Papers Series 767, HEC Paris.
    • Henri Loubergé & Stéphane Villeneuve & Marc Chesney, 2002. "Long-Term Risk Management of Nuclear Waste: A Real Options Approach," Working Papers hal-00594373, HAL.
24. Minh Ha-Duong & Nicolas Treich, 2004. "Risk Aversion, Intergenerational Equity and Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 28(2), pages 195-207, June.
    • Minh Ha-Duong & Nicolas Treich, 2004. "Risk aversion, intergenerational equity and climate change," Post-Print halshs-00000680, HAL.
25. repec:pri:cepsud:94bradford is not listed on IDEAS
26. Rick Van der Ploeg, 2020. "Discounting And Climate Policy," OxCarre Working Papers 244, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Rick van der Ploeg, 2020. "Discounting and Climate Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 8441, CESifo.
27. Gautier, Pieter A. & Vuuren, Aico van, 2019. "The effect of land lease on house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    • Gautier, Pieter A. & van Vuuren, Aico, 2017. "The effect of land lease on house prices," Working Papers in Economics 686, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
28. Therese Grijalva & Jayson Lusk & W. Shaw, 2014. "Discounting the Distant Future: An Experimental Investigation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 59(1), pages 39-63, September.
29. Keller, Klaus & Bolker, Benjamin M. & Bradford, D.F.David F., 2004. "Uncertain climate thresholds and optimal economic growth," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 723-741, July.
30. Sterner, Thomas & Damon, Maria, 2011. "Green growth in the post-Copenhagen climate," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7165-7173.
31. R. Turner, 2007. "Limits to CBA in UK and European environmental policy: retrospects and future prospects," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 37(1), pages 253-269, May.
32. Scarborough, Helen, 2011. "Intergenerational equity and the social discount rate," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(2), pages 1-14.
    • Helen Scarborough, 2011. "Intergenerational equity and the social discount rate," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(2), pages 145-158, April.
33. Olijslagers, Stan & van der Ploeg, Frederick & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2023. "On current and future carbon prices in a risky world," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    • Stan W.J. Olijslagers & Rick van der Ploeg & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2021. "On Current and Future Carbon Prices in a Risky World," CESifo Working Paper Series 9092, CESifo.
    • Stan Olijslagers & Rick van der Ploeg & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2021. "On current and future carbon prices in a risky world," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-045/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
34. Nina Anchugina & Matthew Ryan & Arkadii Slinko, 2016. "Aggregating time preferences with decreasing impatience," Papers 1604.01819, arXiv.org.
35. Christian Gollier & Phoebe Koundouri & Theologos Pantelidis, 2008. "Declining discount rates: Economic justifications and implications for long-run policy [‘Regime switches in interest rates’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 23(56), pages 758-795.
    • GOLLIER Christian & KOUNDOURI Phoebe & PANTELIDIS Theologos, 2008. "Declining Discount Rates : Economic Justifications and Implications for Long-Run Policy," LERNA Working Papers 08.17.261, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    • Gollier, Christian & Koundouri, Phoebe & Pantelidis, Theologos, 2008. "Declining Discount Rates: Economic Justifications and Implications for Long-Run Policy," IDEI Working Papers 525, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
36. Nicole El Karoui & Mohamed Mrad & Caroline Hillairet, 2020. "Ramsey Rule with Progressive Utility in Long Term Yield Curves Modeling," Post-Print hal-00974815, HAL.
37. Kollenberg, Sascha & Taschini, Luca, 2016. "Emissions trading systems with cap adjustments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 20-36.
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38. Yvan Lengwiler, 2005. "Heterogeneous Patience and the Term Structure of Real Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 890-896, June.
39. Tas Thamo & David J. Pannell & Marit E. Kragt & Michael J. Robertson & Maksym Polyakov, 2017. "Dynamics and the economics of carbon sequestration: common oversights and their implications," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(7), pages 1095-1111, October.
40. Szekeres, Szabolcs, 2015. "When should the distant future not be discounted at increasing discount rates?," MPRA Paper 63437, University Library of Munich, Germany.
41. Szekeres, Szabolcs, 2023. "The simple answer to the Social Discount Rate question," MPRA Paper 117843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
42. Stefan Bayer, 2004. "Nachhaltigkeitskonforme Diskontierung: das Konzept des "Generation Adjusted Discounting"," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 73(1), pages 142-157.
43. Hultkrantz, Lars & A. Krüger, Niclas & Mantalos, Panagiotis, 2014. "Risk-adjusted long-term social rates of discount for transportation infrastructure investment," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 70-81.
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44. Shogren, Jason F. & Toman, Michael, 2000. "Climate Change Policy," Discussion Papers 10767, Resources for the Future.
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45. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel, 2016. "No‐Bubble Condition: Model‐Free Tests in Housing Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1047-1091, May.
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46. Lawrence H. Goulder & Roberton C. Williams, 2012. "The Choice Of Discount Rate For Climate Change Policy Evaluation," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(04), pages 1-18.
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47. Nicole El Karoui & Caroline Hillairet & Mohamed Mrad & El Karoui & Hillairet Caroline & Mrad Mohamed, 2014. "Ramsey Rule with Progressive Utility in Long Term Yield Curves Modeling," Working Papers hal-00974815, HAL.
48. Anchugina, Nina & Ryan, Matthew & Slinko, Arkadii, 2017. "Hyperbolic discounting of the far-distant future," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 140-143.
49. J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos & Matteo G. Richiardi & Miquel Montero & Josep Perelló & Jaume Masoliver, 2024. "Discounting the Distant Future: What Do Historical Bond Prices Imply about the Long-Term Discount Rate?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-25, February.
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    • J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos & Matteo G. Richiardi & Miquel Montero & Josep Perell'o & Jaume Masoliver, 2023. "Discounting the distant future: What do historical bond prices imply about the long term discount rate?," Papers 2312.17157, arXiv.org.
50. Christine Carmody, 2012. "Considering future generations - sustainability in theory and practice," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 3, pages 65-91, October.
51. Jensen, Svenn & Traeger, Christian P., 2014. "Optimal climate change mitigation under long-term growth uncertainty: Stochastic integrated assessment and analytic findings," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 104-125.
52. De Gorter, Harry & Tsur, Yacov, 2008. "Towards a Genuine Sustainability Standard for Biofuel Production," 14th ICABR Conference, June 16-18, 2010, Ravello, Italy 188419, International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR).
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53. Simon Dietz & David Maddison, 2009. "New Frontiers in the Economics of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 295-306, July.
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55. Adler Miserendino, Rebecca & Bergquist, Bridget A. & Adler, Sara E. & Guimarães, Jean Remy Davée & Lees, Peter S.J. & Niquen, Wilmer & Velasquez-López, P. Colon & Veiga, Marcello M., 2013. "Challenges to measuring, monitoring, and addressing the cumulative impacts of artisanal and small-scale gold mining in Ecuador," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 713-722.
56. Toman, Michael & Pezzey, John C., 2002. "The Economics of Sustainability: A Review of Journal Articles," RFF Working Paper Series dp-02-03, Resources for the Future.
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57. Freeman, Mark C. & Groom, Ben & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Pantelidis, Theologos, 2015. "Declining discount rates and the Fisher Effect: Inflated past, discounted future?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 32-49.
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58. Defrancesco, Edi & Gatto, Paola & Rosato, Paolo, 2014. "A ‘component-based’ approach to discounting for natural resource damage assessment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 1-9.
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74. Mahkameh Zarekarizi & Vivek Srikrishnan & Klaus Keller, 2020. "Neglecting Uncertainties Biases House-Elevation Decisions to Manage Riverine Flood Risks," Papers 2001.06457, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
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78. Wojciech Rybicki, 2012. "Discounting and ideas of intergenerational equity and sustainability," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 22(1), pages 63-84.
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