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The discounting premium puzzle: Survey evidence from professional economists

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  • Gollier, Christian
  • van der Ploeg, Frederick
  • Zheng, Jiakun

Abstract

We surveyed economists’ attitudes toward adjusting discount rates to the risk profile of public programs. Three-quarters of respondents recommend to use project-specific discount rates. For example, on average, respondents discount railway infrastructures more than hospitals and climate mitigation. But the degree of discount discrimination between distinct risk profiles of different projects is fairly limited in our sample given the differences in risk profiles for these projects. Economic experts thus penalize risky public projects far less than financial markets penalize private investments. We call this the ”discount premium puzzle”. Finally, among experts in favor of a single discount rate, there is no consensus on whether it should be based on the average cost of capital in the economy, the sovereign borrowing cost, or the Ramsey rule, which gives rise to disagreement over the level of the recommended discount rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Gollier, Christian & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Zheng, Jiakun, 2023. "The discounting premium puzzle: Survey evidence from professional economists," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:122:y:2023:i:c:s0095069623001006
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102882
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    Cited by:

    1. Frikk Nesje & Robert C. Schmidt & Moritz A. Drupp & Robert Christian Schmidt, 2024. "Designing Carbon Pricing Policies Across the Globe," CESifo Working Paper Series 11424, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk premium; Project-specific discount rate; Survey evidence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy

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