IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/opques/qef_720_22.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Costs and benefits of the green transition envisaged in the italian NRRP. An evaluation using the Social Cost of Carbon

Author

Listed:
  • Matteo Alpino

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Luca Citino

    (Bank of ItalyEuropean Central Bank)

  • Federica Zeni

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We perform a cost-benefit analysis of the green investments contained in the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP). We compute the future discounted benefits in terms of expected emission reductions using various estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon, and compare them with the investment cost. Our results suggest that several projects would not have a positive net present value, unless policymakers are willing to use relatively low discount rates and give higher weight to benefits accruing to developing countries. The fact that investments under the NRRP are financed via long-term debt helps in bridging the gap between costs and benefits. Investments in renewable energy are an exception, as their benefits outweigh the cost within a short time-frame.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Alpino & Luca Citino & Federica Zeni, 2022. "Costs and benefits of the green transition envisaged in the italian NRRP. An evaluation using the Social Cost of Carbon," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 720, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_720_22
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2022-0720/QEF_720.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Krishna Rao & Johannes Stroebel & Andreas Weber & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Climate Change and Long-Run Discount Rates: Evidence from Real Estate [Abrupt climate change]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3527-3571.
    2. Becker Gary S. & Murphy Kevin M. & Topel Robert H., 2011. "On the Economics of Climate Policy," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-27, May.
      • Becker, Gary S. & Murphy, Kevin M. & Topel, Robert H., 2010. "On the Economics of Climate Policy," Working Papers 234, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    3. Meredith Fowlie & Michael Greenstone & Catherine Wolfram, 2018. "Do Energy Efficiency Investments Deliver? Evidence from the Weatherization Assistance Program," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1597-1644.
    4. Moritz A. Drupp & Mark C. Freeman & Ben Groom & Frikk Nesje, 2018. "Discounting Disentangled," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 109-134, November.
    5. Amy Finkelstein & Nathaniel Hendren, 2020. "Welfare Analysis Meets Causal Inference," NBER Working Papers 27640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Weitzman, Martin L., 1998. "Why the Far-Distant Future Should Be Discounted at Its Lowest Possible Rate," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 201-208, November.
    7. Hunt Allcott & Michael Greenstone, 2012. "Is There an Energy Efficiency Gap?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 3-28, Winter.
    8. Kenneth Gillingham & James H. Stock, 2018. "The Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 53-72, Fall.
    9. Richard S. J. Tol, 2023. "Social cost of carbon estimates have increased over time," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(6), pages 532-536, June.
    10. Amy Finkelstein & Nathaniel Hendren, 2020. "Welfare Analysis Meets Causal Inference," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 146-167, Fall.
    11. Boomhower, Judson & Davis, Lucas W., 2014. "A credible approach for measuring inframarginal participation in energy efficiency programs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 67-79.
    12. John Weyant, 2017. "Some Contributions of Integrated Assessment Models of Global Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(1), pages 115-137.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qian Zhou & Feng Gui & Benxuan Zhao & Jingyi Liu & Huiwen Cai & Kaida Xu & Sheng Zhao, 2024. "Examining the Social Costs of Carbon Emissions and the Ecosystem Service Value in Island Ecosystems: An Analysis of the Zhoushan Archipelago," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-19, January.
    2. Gaetano Basso & Fabrizio Colonna & Domenico Depalo & Graziella Mendicino, 2023. "The Green Transition and the Italian labour market," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 811, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gregory Casey, 2024. "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 192-228.
    2. Ensieh Shojaeddini & Ben Gilbert, 2023. "Heterogeneity in the Rebound Effect: Evidence from Efficient Lighting Subsidies," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(1), pages 173-217, January.
    3. Grubb, Michael & Lange, Rutger-Jan & Cerkez, Nicolas & Sognnaes, Ida & Wieners, Claudia & Salas, Pablo, 2024. "Dynamic determinants of optimal global climate policy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 490-508.
    4. Justin Contat & Carrie Hopkins & Luis Mejia & Matthew Suandi, 2024. "When climate meets real estate: A survey of the literature," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 618-659, May.
    5. Omar Isaac Asensio & Olga Churkina & Becky D. Rafter & Kira E. O’Hare, 2024. "Housing policies and energy efficiency spillovers in low and moderate income communities," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 7(5), pages 590-601, May.
    6. Fesselmeyer, Eric & Liu, Haoming & Salvo, Alberto, 2016. "How Do Households Discount over Centuries? Evidence from Singapore's Private Housing Market," IZA Discussion Papers 9862, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Bettina Chlond & Claire Gavard & Lisa Jeuck, 2023. "How to Support Residential Energy Conservation Cost-Effectively? An analysis of Public Financial Schemes in France," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 85(1), pages 29-63, May.
    8. Saunders, Harry D. & Roy, Joyashree & Azevedo, Inês M.L. & Chakravarty, Debalina & Dasgupta, Shyamasree & De La Rue Du Can, Stephane & Druckman, Angela & Fouquet, Roger & Grubb, Michael & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Energy efficiency: what has research delivered in the last 40 years?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114344, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Lang, Ghislaine & Lanz, Bruno, 2022. "Climate policy without a price signal: Evidence on the implicit carbon price of energy efficiency in buildings," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    10. Christopher J. Amante & Jacob Dice & David Rodziewicz & Eugene Wahl, 2020. "Housing Market Value Impairment from Future Sea-level Rise Inundation," Research Working Paper RWP 20-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    11. Harding, Matthew & Kettler, Kyle & Lamarche, Carlos & Ma, Lala, 2023. "The (alleged) environmental and social benefits of dynamic pricing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 574-593.
    12. Giraudet, Louis-Gaëtan, 2020. "Energy efficiency as a credence good: A review of informational barriers to energy savings in the building sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    13. Chlond, Bettina & Gavard, Claire & Jeuck, Lisa, 2021. "Supporting residential energy conservation under constrained public budget: Cost-effectiveness and redistribution analysis of public financial schemes in France," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-056, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    14. Davis, Lucas W. & Martinez, Sebastian & Taboada, Bibiana, 2020. "How effective is energy-efficient housing? Evidence from a field trial in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    15. Hancevic, Pedro I. & Sandoval, Hector H., 2022. "Low-income energy efficiency programs and energy consumption," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    16. Spackman, Michael, 2021. "Social discounting and the cost of public funding in practice," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111490, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Grubb, Michael & Lange, Rutger-Jan & Cerkez, Nicolas & Sognnaes, Ida & Wieners, Claudia & Salas, Pablo, 2024. "Dynamic determinants of optimal global climate policy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 490-508.
    18. Anup Malani & Cynthia Kinnan & Gabriella Conti & Kosuke Imai & Morgen Miller & Shailender Swaminathan & Alessandra Voena & Bartosz Woda, 2024. "Evaluating pricing health insurance in lower-income countries: A field experiment in India," IFS Working Papers W24/33, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    19. Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet & Anna Petronevich & Laurent Faucheux, 2018. "How do lenders price energy efficiency? Evidence from posted interest rates for unsecured credit in France [Comment les créditeurs valorisent-ils l'efficacité énergétique? Une analyse des taux d'in," Working Papers hal-01890636, HAL.
    20. Fischbacher, Urs & Schudy, Simeon & Teyssier, Sabrina, 2021. "Heterogeneous preferences and investments in energy saving measures," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation density; inflation risk premium; objective probability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_720_22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.