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Forecasting the Great Trade Collapse

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  • Yilmazkuday, Hakan

Abstract

This paper introduces a simple methodology to forecast international trade. The main innovation is to calculate non-unitary expenditure elasticities of import demand implied by non-homothetic preferences in the previous year to be further combined with the current change in expenditure to forecast the current imports. Using U.S. data on aggregate expenditure and good-level imports, we test the performance of the methodology in forecasting international imports. The methodology is successful in forecasting not only the Great Trade Collapse and the corresponding recovery period but also the other periods in the sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2016. "Forecasting the Great Trade Collapse," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 145-154.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inteco:v:147:y:2016:i:c:p:145-154
    DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2016.05.001
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    1. George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "Inventories, Lumpy Trade, and Large Devaluations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2304-2339, December.
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    9. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2013. "The Great Trade Collapse," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 375-400, May.
    10. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2010. "Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 295-326, December.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Forecasting the Great Trade Collapse
      by Hakan Yilmazkuday in Hakan Yilmazkuday's Blog on 2016-06-10 20:26:00

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Great Trade Collapse; Non-homothetic preferences; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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