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Declining discount rates and the ‘Fisher Effect’: Inflated past, discounted future?

Author

Listed:
  • Mark C. Greeman

    (Loughborough University)

  • Ben Groom

    (LSE)

  • Ekaterini Panopoulou

    (Kent Business School, University of Kent)

  • Theologos Pantelidis

    (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia)

Abstract

Uncertain and persistent real interest rates underpin one argument for using a declin- ing term structure of social discount rates in the Expected Net Present Value (ENPV) framework. Despite being controversial, this approach has in uenced both the Inter-Agency Working Group on Cost-Benefit Analysis and the UK government's guidelines on discount- ing. We first clarify the theoretical basis of the ENPV approach. Then, rather than following previous work which used a single series of real U.S. Treasury bond returns, we treat nominal interest rates and inflation as cointegrated series and estimate the empirical term structure of discount rates via the `Fisher Effect'. This nests previous empirical models and is more flexible. It also addresses an irregularity in previous work which used data on nominal in- terest rates until 1950, and real interest rates thereafter. As we show, the real and nominal data have very different time series properties. This paper therefore provides a robust- ness check on previous discounting advice and updated methodological guidance at a time when governments around the world are reviewing their guidelines on social discounting. The policy implications are discussed in the context of the Social Cost of Carbon, nuclear decommissioning and public health.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark C. Greeman & Ben Groom & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Theologos Pantelidis, 2015. "Declining discount rates and the ‘Fisher Effect’: Inflated past, discounted future?," Discussion Paper Series 2015_01, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jan 2015.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2015_01
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social Discounting; Declining Discount Rates; Fisher Effect; Real and Nominal Interest Rates; Social Cost of Carbon.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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