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Economic and policy uncertainty in climate change mitigation: The London Smart City case scenario

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  • Contreras, Gabriela
  • Platania, Federico

Abstract

Despite the overwhelming consensus within the scientific community concerning the causes and effects of climate change, decision-making processes often do not point out in the same direction. In order to effectively and satisfactorily tackle climate change, a legally and politically binding long-term policy architecture is needed. In practice, however, central governments and international policymakers have been unable to provide a successful policy architecture. Yet, city-level initiatives within the Smart City framework are a promising way to tackle climate change. An example of such a Smart City framework is the London Environment Strategy (LES). In this paper, we propose a zero mean reverting model for greenhouse gas emissions to quantitatively analyze its consistency with the 2050 Zero Carbon objectives. We consider different policy scenarios proposed in the LES and the forward-looking policy uncertainty embedded in different economic sectors, primarily domestic, industrial and commercial and transport. We find that, on average, only transport improves the historical greenhouse gas emissions trend, and most of this reduction comes from Smart Mobility and/or Smart Regulation programs focusing on the environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Contreras, Gabriela & Platania, Federico, 2019. "Economic and policy uncertainty in climate change mitigation: The London Smart City case scenario," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 384-393.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:142:y:2019:i:c:p:384-393
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.07.018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Vito Albino & Umberto Berardi & Rosa Maria Dangelico, 2015. "Smart Cities: Definitions, Dimensions, Performance, and Initiatives," Journal of Urban Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 3-21, January.
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    8. Flavio R. Arroyo M. & Luis J. Miguel, 2019. "The Trends of the Energy Intensity and CO 2 Emissions Related to Final Energy Consumption in Ecuador: Scenarios of National and Worldwide Strategies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, December.
    9. Verma, Pramit & Kumari, Tanu & Raghubanshi, Akhilesh Singh, 2021. "Energy emissions, consumption and impact of urban households: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    10. Qamruzzaman, Md & Karim, Salma & Jahan, Ishrat, 2022. "Nexus between economic policy uncertainty, foreign direct investment, government debt and renewable energy consumption in 13 top oil importing nations: Evidence from the symmetric and asymmetric inves," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 121-136.
    11. Chen, Yuanhan, 2024. "Cleaning Russian oil industry for energy resource exploration and industrial transformation towards zero carbon green recovery: Role of inclusive digital finance," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
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    13. Yongliang Zhang & Md. Qamruzzaman & Salma Karim & Ishrat Jahan, 2021. "Nexus between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Renewable Energy Consumption in BRIC Nations: The Mediating Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Financial Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-29, August.
    14. Zhang, Long & Bai, Wuliyasu, 2021. "Sustainability of crop–based biodiesel for transportation in China: Barrier analysis and life cycle ecological footprint calculations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    15. Bundgaard, Lasse & Borrás, Susana, 2021. "City-wide scale-up of smart city pilot projects: Governance conditions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    16. Shu, Yunxia & Deng, Nanxin & Wu, Yuming & Bao, Shuming & Bie, Ao, 2023. "Urban governance and sustainable development: The effect of smart city on carbon emission in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    17. Adams, Samuel & Adedoyin, Festus & Olaniran, Eniola & Bekun, Festus Victor, 2020. "Energy consumption, economic policy uncertainty and carbon emissions; causality evidence from resource rich economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 179-190.
    18. Bai, Dongbei & Du, Lizhao & Xu, Yang & Abbas, Shujaat, 2023. "Climate policy uncertainty and corporate green innovation: Evidence from Chinese A-share listed industrial corporations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    19. Clement, Jessica & Ruysschaert, Benoit & Crutzen, Nathalie, 2023. "Smart city strategies – A driver for the localization of the sustainable development goals?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    20. Long Qian & Xiaolin Xu & Yunjie Zhou & Ying Sun & Duoliang Ma, 2023. "Carbon Emission Reduction Effects of the Smart City Pilot Policy in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-24, March.
    21. Xie, Biqing & Xie, Bibo, 2024. "Assessing the impact of climate policy on energy security in developed economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 265-282.
    22. Adam Przybyłowski & Agnieszka Kałaska & Piotr Przybyłowski, 2022. "Quest for a Tool Measuring Urban Quality of Life: ISO 37120 Standard Sustainable Development Indicators," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-17, April.
    23. Roberto Ruggieri & Marco Ruggeri & Giuliana Vinci & Stefano Poponi, 2021. "Electric Mobility in a Smart City: European Overview," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-29, January.
    24. Zhu, Lin & Cunningham, Scott W., 2022. "Unveiling the knowledge structure of technological forecasting and social change (1969–2020) through an NMF-based hierarchical topic model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).

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