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Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-008 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Alan J. Auerbach & Ronald Lee, 2009. "Notional Defined Contribution Pension Systems in a Stochastic Context: Design and Stability," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment, pages 43-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Ramirez, David A. & Walke, Adam G., 2013. "An Econometric Analysis of Population Change in Arkansas," MPRA Paper 59588, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Nov 2013.
  4. Alfred Michael Dockery & Mark N. Harris & Nicholas Holyoak & Ranjodh B. Singh, 2021. "A methodology for projecting sparse populations and its application to remote Indigenous communities," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 37-61, January.
  5. Katja Hanewald & Thomas Post & Helmut Gründl, 2011. "Stochastic Mortality, Macroeconomic Risks and Life Insurer Solvency," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 36(3), pages 458-475, July.
  6. Cristina Rueda-Sabater & Pedro Alvarez-Esteban, 2008. "The analysis of age-specific fertility patterns via logistic models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1053-1070.
  7. Juha Alho & Nico Keilman, 2010. "On future household structure," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(1), pages 117-143, January.
  8. Søren Kjærgaard & Yunus Emre Ergemen & Marie-Pier Bergeron Boucher & Jim Oeppen & Malene Kallestrup-Lamb, 2019. "Longevity forecasting by socio-economic groups using compositional data analysis," CREATES Research Papers 2019-08, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  9. Adrian Raftery & Jennifer Chunn & Patrick Gerland & Hana Ševčíková, 2013. "Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(3), pages 777-801, June.
  10. Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.
  11. Fang, Lei & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Park, Juhyun, 2016. "A mortality model for multi-populations: A semi-parametric approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-023, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  12. Wong, Chi Heem & Tsui, Albert K., 2015. "Forecasting life expectancy: Evidence from a new survival function," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 208-226.
  13. Fang, Lei & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2015. "Stochastic population analysis: A functional data approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-007, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  14. Gleditsch Rebecca Folkman & Syse Astri & Thomas Michael J., 2021. "Fertility Projections in a European Context: A Survey of Current Practices among Statistical Agencies," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 37(3), pages 547-568, September.
  15. Vanella, Patrizio & Deschermeier, Philipp, 2018. "A Probabilistic Cohort-Component Model for Population Forecasting - The Case of Germany," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-638, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  16. Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.
  17. Monika Papież & Sabina Denkowska, 2010. "The Analysis of Mortality Changes In Selected European Countries in the Period 1960–2006," Statistics in Transition new series, Główny Urząd Statystyczny (Polska), vol. 11(3), pages 563-584, December.
  18. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  19. Reichmuth, Wolfgang H. & Sarferaz, Samad, 2008. "Bayesian demographic modeling and forecasting: An application to U.S. mortality," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-052, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  20. Carl Schmertmann & Emilio Zagheni & Joshua R. Goldstein & Mikko Myrskylä, 2014. "Bayesian Forecasting of Cohort Fertility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(506), pages 500-513, June.
  21. Jorge Bravo, 2011. "Modelling Mortality Using Multiple Stochastic Latent Factors," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2011_26, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
  22. Reichmuth, Wolfgang H. & Sarferaz, Samad, 2008. "Modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality: A Bayesian approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-052a, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  23. Frans Willekens, 2018. "Towards causal forecasting of international migration," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 199-218.
  24. Andrzej Szymański & Agnieszka Rossa, 2017. "Improvement Of Fuzzy Mortality Models By Means Of Algebraic Methods," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 701-724, December.
  25. Wong, Chi Heem & Tsui, Albert K, 2015. "Forecasting Life Expectancy: Evidence from a New Survival Function," CEI Working Paper Series 2015-1, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  26. Osman Gulseven, 2016. "Forecasting Population and Demographic Composition of Kuwait Until 2030," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1429-1435.
  27. Arkadiusz Wiśniowski & Peter Smith & Jakub Bijak & James Raymer & Jonathan Forster, 2015. "Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(3), pages 1035-1059, June.
  28. Hanewald, Katja, 2009. "Lee-Carter and the macroeconomy," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2009-008, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  29. Valeria D’Amato & Emilia Di Lorenzo & Steven Haberman & Maria Russolillo & Marilena Sibillo, 2011. "The Poisson Log-Bilinear Lee-Carter Model," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 315-333.
  30. Fanny Janssen & Leo Wissen & Anton Kunst, 2013. "Including the Smoking Epidemic in Internationally Coherent Mortality Projections," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(4), pages 1341-1362, August.
  31. Niall Newsham & Francisco Rowe, 2021. "Projecting the demographic impact of Syrian migration in a rapidly ageing society, Germany," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 231-261, April.
  32. Francesco Billari & Rebecca Graziani & Eugenio Melilli, 2014. "Stochastic Population Forecasting Based on Combinations of Expert Evaluations Within the Bayesian Paradigm," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(5), pages 1933-1954, October.
  33. Rueda, Cristina & Rodríguez, Pilar, 2010. "State space models for estimating and forecasting fertility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 712-724, October.
  34. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-007 is not listed on IDEAS
  35. Keilman, Nico, 2016. "Household forecasting: Preservation of age patterns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 726-735.
  36. Ugofilippo Basellini & Søren Kjærgaard & Carlo Giovanni Camarda, 2020. "An age-at-death distribution approach to forecast cohort mortality," Working Papers axafx5_3agsuwaphvlfk, French Institute for Demographic Studies.
  37. Tom Wilson & Irina Grossman & Monica Alexander & Phil Rees & Jeromey Temple, 2022. "Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 865-898, June.
  38. Patrizio Vanella & Philipp Deschermeier & Christina B. Wilke, 2020. "An Overview of Population Projections—Methodological Concepts, International Data Availability, and Use Cases," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-18, September.
  39. Shang, Han Lin & Haberman, Steven & Xu, Ruofan, 2022. "Multi-population modelling and forecasting life-table death counts," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 239-253.
  40. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2016-023 is not listed on IDEAS
  41. Rachel WINGENBACH & Jong-Min KIM & Hojin JUNG, 2020. "Living Longer in High Longevity Risk," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 47-86, March.
  42. Katherine Tierney, 2022. "The Future of Assisted Reproductive Technology Live Births in the United States," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(5), pages 2289-2309, October.
  43. Michel Denuit, 2009. "Life Anuities with Stochastic Survival Probabilities: A Review," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 463-489, September.
  44. Shang, Han Lin & Haberman, Steven, 2017. "Grouped multivariate and functional time series forecasting:An application to annuity pricing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 166-179.
  45. Demirel, Duygun Fatih & Basak, Melek, 2019. "A fuzzy bi-level method for modeling age-specific migration," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  46. Adrian E. Raftery & Nevena Lalic & Patrick Gerland, 2014. "Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(27), pages 795-822.
  47. Raftery, Adrian E. & Ševčíková, Hana, 2023. "Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 73-97.
  48. Joop de Beer, 2012. "Smoothing and projecting age-specific probabilities of death by TOPALS," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(20), pages 543-592.
  49. Francesco C. Billari, 2022. "Demography: Fast and Slow," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(1), pages 9-30, March.
  50. Szymański Andrzej & Rossa Agnieszka, 2017. "Improvement of Fuzzy Mortality Models by Means of Algebraic Methods," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 701-724, December.
  51. Daniel Rozell, 2017. "Using population projections in climate change analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 521-529, June.
  52. Beutner, Eric & Reese, Simon & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2017. "Identifiability issues of age–period and age–period–cohort models of the Lee–Carter type," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 117-125.
  53. Denuit, Michel, 2008. "Comonotonic approximations to quantiles of life annuity conditional expected present value," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 831-838, April.
  54. Marc Garnica-Caparrós & Daniel Memmert & Fabian Wunderlich, 2022. "Artificial data in sports forecasting: a simulation framework for analysing predictive models in sports," Information Systems and e-Business Management, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 551-580, September.
  55. S⊘ren Kjærgaard & Yunus Emre Ergemen & Marie‐Pier Bergeron‐Boucher & Jim Oeppen & Malene Kallestrup‐Lamb, 2020. "Longevity forecasting by socio‐economic groups using compositional data analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(3), pages 1167-1187, June.
  56. Chen, Quanrun & Dietzenbacher, Erik & Los, Bart, 2015. "The effects of ageing and urbanization on China's future population and labor force," Research Report 15002-GEM, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  57. Joop de Beer, 2011. "A new relational method for smoothing and projecting age-specific fertility rates: TOPALS," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 24(18), pages 409-454.
  58. Hal Caswell & Nora Sánchez Gassen, 2015. "The sensitivity analysis of population projections," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(28), pages 801-840.
  59. Stefan Tappe & Stefan Weber, 2014. "Stochastic mortality models: an infinite-dimensional approach," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 209-248, January.
  60. Torri, Tiziana & Vaupel, James W., 2012. "Forecasting life expectancy in an international context," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 519-531.
  61. Rodríguez, Julio, 2008. "A methodology for population projections: an application to Spain," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws084512, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  62. Vianney Costemalle, 2020. "Bayesian Probabilistic Population Projections for France," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 520-521, pages 29-47.
  63. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-052 is not listed on IDEAS
  64. Alonso Meseguer, Javier & Tuesta Cárdenas, David & Torres Torres, Diego & Villamide Muiña, Begoña, 2015. "Proyecciones de tablas generacionales dinámicas de mortalidad y riesgo de longevidad en países en vías de desarrollo: El caso chileno/Projections of Dynamic Generational Mortality Tables and Longevity," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 33, pages 941-964, Septiembr.
  65. Alan Marshall & Paul Norman & Ian Plewis, 2013. "Applying Relational Models to the Graduation of Disability Schedules [Application de modèles relationnels pour le lissage de schémas d’incapacités]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(4), pages 467-491, November.
  66. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Walke, Adam G. & Villavicencio, Diana, 2015. "An Econometric Approach for Modeling Population Change in Doña Ana County, New Mexico," MPRA Paper 71141, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jan 2015.
  67. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Harrison, Richard & Sajedi, Rana, 2022. "Decomposing the drivers of Global R," Bank of England working papers 990, Bank of England.
  68. Kevin Dowd & David Blake & Andrew Cairns, 2010. "Facing up to uncertain life expectancy: The longevity fan charts," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(1), pages 67-78, February.
  69. Wang, Hong & Koo, Bonsoo & O'Hare, Colin, 2016. "Retirement planning in the light of changing demographics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 749-763.
  70. Ugarte Montero, Andrey & Wagner, Joël, 2023. "On potential information asymmetries in long-term care insurance: A simulation study using data from Switzerland," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 230-241.
  71. Han Lin Shang & Rob J Hyndman & Heather Booth, 2010. "A comparison of ten principal component methods for forecasting mortality rates," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  72. Carlo G. Camarda & Ugofilippo Basellini, 2021. "Smoothing, Decomposing and Forecasting Mortality Rates," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(3), pages 569-602, July.
  73. Tomas, Julien & Planchet, Frédéric, 2015. "Prospective mortality tables: Taking heterogeneity into account," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 169-190.
  74. Joanne Ellison & Erengul Dodd & Jonathan J. Forster, 2020. "Forecasting of cohort fertility under a hierarchical Bayesian approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(3), pages 829-856, June.
  75. Han Lin Shang & Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman, 2011. "Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: A comparison of ten principal component methods," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(5), pages 173-214.
  76. Dunstan Kim & Ball Christopher, 2016. "Demographic Projections: User and Producer Experiences of Adopting a Stochastic Approach," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 32(4), pages 947-962, December.
  77. Basellini, Ugofilippo & Kjærgaard, Søren & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni, 2020. "An age-at-death distribution approach to forecast cohort mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 129-143.
  78. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-052a is not listed on IDEAS
  79. Debon, A. & Montes, F. & Mateu, J. & Porcu, E. & Bevilacqua, M., 2008. "Modelling residuals dependence in dynamic life tables: A geostatistical approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3128-3147, February.
  80. Nan Li & Ronald Lee & Patrick Gerland, 2013. "Extending the Lee-Carter Method to Model the Rotation of Age Patterns of Mortality Decline for Long-Term Projections," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(6), pages 2037-2051, December.
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