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Modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality: A Bayesian approach

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  • Reichmuth, Wolfgang H.
  • Sarferaz, Samad

Abstract

We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables, using the example of age-specific mortality in the United States, building on the LeeCarter approach and extending it in several dimensions. We incorporate covariates and model their dynamics jointly with the latent variables underlying mortality of all age classes. In contrast to previous models, a similar development of adjacent age groups is assured, allowing for consistent forecasts. We develop an appropriate Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate the parameters and the latent variables in an efficient one-step procedure. Via the Bayesian approach we are able to assess uncertainty intuitively by constructing error bands for the forecasts. We observe that in particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts. This implies that existing forecasting methods, which ignore certain sources of uncertainty, may yield misleadingly sure predictions. To test the forecast ability of our model we perform in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts up to 2050, revealing that covariates can help improve the forecasts for particular age classes. A structural analysis of the relationship between age-specific mortality and covariates is conducted in a companion paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Reichmuth, Wolfgang H. & Sarferaz, Samad, 2008. "Modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality: A Bayesian approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-052a, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2008-052a
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    7. Reichmuth, Wolfgang H. & Sarferaz, Samad, 2008. "The influence of the business cycle on mortality," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-059, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-008 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Reichmuth, Wolfgang H. & Sarferaz, Samad, 2008. "The influence of the business cycle on mortality," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-059, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    3. Hanewald, Katja, 2009. "Lee-Carter and the macroeconomy," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2009-008, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    4. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-059 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demography; age-specific mortality; LeeCarter; stochastic; Bayesian state space models; forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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