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Forecasting rural depopulation in Spain

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  • González-Leonardo, Miguel

Abstract

Population projections and forecasts below the regional level are widely used by governments for spatial planning, including service provision and infrastructure. However, projections and forecasts are often produced only at national and regional scales. In this paper, I use autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to forecast the rural population size of the 50 Spanish provinces up to 2040. The results predict that the rural population in Spain will remain around 8 million inhabitants until 2024, but 25 out of 50 provinces will experience rural population shrinkage, particularly those in Northwest Spain. For instance, Ourense, Zamora, and León are forecasted to lose more than 30% of the rural population. Additionally, depopulation is expected to accelerate across provinces affected by rural population shrinkage.

Suggested Citation

  • González-Leonardo, Miguel, 2025. "Forecasting rural depopulation in Spain," OSF Preprints hjp4z_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:hjp4z_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/hjp4z_v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    2. Tom Wilson & Irina Grossman & Monica Alexander & Phil Rees & Jeromey Temple, 2022. "Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 865-898, June.
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