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Demographic Projections: User and Producer Experiences of Adopting a Stochastic Approach

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  • Dunstan Kim

    (Statistics New Zealand, Private Bag 4741, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand)

  • Ball Christopher

    (New Zealand Treasury. BP Box 3724, Wellington 6008, New Zealand)

Abstract

Statistics New Zealand is one of the few national statistical agencies to have applied a stochastic (probabilistic) approach to official demographic projections. This article discusses the experience and benefits of adopting this new approach, including the perspective of a key user of projections, the New Zealand Treasury. Our experience is that the change is less difficult to make than might be expected. Uncertainty in the different projection inputs (components) can be modelled simply or with more complexity, and progressively applied to different projection types. This means that not all the different demographic projections an agency produces need to adopt a stochastic approach simultaneously. At the same time, users of the projections are keen to better understand the relative certainty and uncertainty of projected outcomes, given the important uses of projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Dunstan Kim & Ball Christopher, 2016. "Demographic Projections: User and Producer Experiences of Adopting a Stochastic Approach," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 32(4), pages 947-962, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:offsta:v:32:y:2016:i:4:p:947-962:n:12
    DOI: 10.1515/jos-2016-0050
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    Cited by:

    1. Nico Keilman, 2018. "Probabilistic demographic forecasts," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 025-035.
    2. Tom Wilson & Fiona Shalley, 2019. "Subnational population forecasts: Do users want to know about uncertainty?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(13), pages 367-392.

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