IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/insuma/v65y2015icp208-226.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting life expectancy: Evidence from a new survival function

Author

Listed:
  • Wong, Chi Heem
  • Tsui, Albert K.

Abstract

We propose a new survival function to forecast life expectancies at various ages. The proposed model comprises the youth-to-adulthood component and the old-to-oldest-old component. It is able to closely fit adult survivorship of the US men and women in the period from 1950 to 2010. We find evidence that the forecasting performance of life expectancies by the proposed model compares favorably with those obtained from the popular Lee–Carter model (1992) and the shifting logistic model proposed by Bongaarts (2005).

Suggested Citation

  • Wong, Chi Heem & Tsui, Albert K., 2015. "Forecasting life expectancy: Evidence from a new survival function," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 208-226.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:65:y:2015:i:c:p:208-226
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2015.08.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167668715300287
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2015.08.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eytan Sheshinski, 2007. "Introduction to The Economic Theory of Annuities," Introductory Chapters, in: The Economic Theory of Annuities, Princeton University Press.
    2. Bruce, Neil & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2013. "Demography And Growth: A Unified Treatment Of Overlapping Generations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(8), pages 1605-1637, December.
    3. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    4. John Bongaarts, 2005. "Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(1), pages 23-49, February.
    5. Menahem E. Yaari, 1965. "Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 32(2), pages 137-150.
    6. Robert McNown & Andrei Rogers, 1989. "Forecasting Mortality: A Parameterized Time Series Approach," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 26(4), pages 645-660, November.
    7. Eytan Sheshinski, 2007. "The Economic Theory of Annuities," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8536.
    8. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
    9. Nan Li & Ronald Lee & Patrick Gerland, 2013. "Extending the Lee-Carter Method to Model the Rotation of Age Patterns of Mortality Decline for Long-Term Projections," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(6), pages 2037-2051, December.
    10. Shiro Horiuchi & John Wilmoth, 1998. "Deceleration in the age pattern of mortality at olderages," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 35(4), pages 391-412, November.
    11. Carolyn Njenga & Michael Sherris, 2011. "Modeling Mortality with a Bayesian Vector Autoregression," Working Papers 201105, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. María-Dolores Huete-Morales & Esteban Navarrete-Álvarez & María-Jesús Rosales-Moreno & María-José Del-Moral-Ávila & José-Manuel Quesada-Rubio, 2020. "Modelling the survival function of the Spanish population by the Wong–Tsui model with the incorporation of frailty and covariates," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 151-163, August.
    2. Jacie Jia Liu, 2021. "A Study on Link Functions for Modelling and Forecasting Old-Age Survival Probabilities of Australia and New Zealand," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wong, Chi Heem & Tsui, Albert K, 2015. "Forecasting Life Expectancy: Evidence from a New Survival Function," CEI Working Paper Series 2015-1, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Dennis M. Feehan, 2018. "Separating the Signal From the Noise: Evidence for Deceleration in Old-Age Death Rates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(6), pages 2025-2044, December.
    3. Shesshinski, Eytan, 2006. "Longevity and Aggregate Savings," MPRA Paper 55165, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2007.
    4. Lau, Sau-Him Paul, 2014. "Fertility and mortality changes in an overlapping-generations model with realistic demography," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 512-521.
    5. Drouhin, Nicolas, 2020. "Non-stationary additive utility and time consistency," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-14.
    6. Raj Chetty & Amy Finkelstein, 2012. "Social Insurance: Connecting Theory to Data," NBER Working Papers 18433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-052 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
    9. Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.
    10. Basellini, Ugofilippo & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni & Booth, Heather, 2023. "Thirty years on: A review of the Lee–Carter method for forecasting mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1033-1049.
    11. Mathias Kifmann, 2010. "The Design of Pension Pay Out Options When the Health Status during Retirement Is Uncertain," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 12(1), pages 127-149, February.
    12. Basellini, Ugofilippo & Kjærgaard, Søren & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni, 2020. "An age-at-death distribution approach to forecast cohort mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 129-143.
    13. Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2013. "Long-run trends of human aging and longevity," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1303-1323, October.
    14. Dávila, Julio & Leroux, Marie-Louise, 2015. "Efficiency in overlapping generations economies with longevity choices and fair annuities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 363-383.
    15. Zvi Bodie & Jérôme Detemple & Marcel Rindisbacher, 2009. "Life-Cycle Finance and the Design of Pension Plans," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 249-286, November.
    16. Marius D. Pascariu & Ugofilippo Basellini & José Manuel Aburto & Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2020. "The Linear Link: Deriving Age-Specific Death Rates from Life Expectancy," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-18, October.
    17. Carlo G. Camarda & Ugofilippo Basellini, 2021. "Smoothing, Decomposing and Forecasting Mortality Rates," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(3), pages 569-602, July.
    18. Christina Bohk-Ewald & Marcus Ebeling & Roland Rau, 2017. "Lifespan Disparity as an Additional Indicator for Evaluating Mortality Forecasts," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(4), pages 1559-1577, August.
    19. Pang, Gaobo & Warshawsky, Mark, 2010. "Optimizing the equity-bond-annuity portfolio in retirement: The impact of uncertain health expenses," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 198-209, February.
    20. Han Lin Shang & Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman, 2011. "Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: A comparison of ten principal component methods," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(5), pages 173-214.
    21. Shang, Han Lin & Haberman, Steven, 2017. "Grouped multivariate and functional time series forecasting:An application to annuity pricing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 166-179.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:65:y:2015:i:c:p:208-226. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.