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Stochastic mortality, macroeconomic risks, and life insurer solvency

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  • Hanewald, Katja
  • Post, Thomas
  • Gründl, Helmut

Abstract

Motivated by a recent demographic study establishing a link between macroeconomic fluctuations and the mortality index kt in the Lee-Carter model, we assess the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on the solvency of a life insurance company. Liabilities in our stochastic simulation framework are driven by a GDP-linked variant of the Lee-Carter mortality model. Furthermore, interest rates and stock prices are allowed to react to changes in GDP, which itself is modeled as a stochastic process. Our results show that insolvency probabilities are significantly higher when the reaction of mortality rates to changes in GDP is incorporated.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanewald, Katja & Post, Thomas & Gründl, Helmut, 2009. "Stochastic mortality, macroeconomic risks, and life insurer solvency," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2009-015, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2009-015
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    3. Michał Grajek & Lars-Hendrik Röller, 2012. "Regulation and Investment in Network Industries: Evidence from European Telecoms," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(1), pages 189-216.
    4. Grith, Maria & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Park, Juhyun, 2009. "Shape invariant modelling pricing kernels and risk aversion," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2009-041, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
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    6. Choroś, Barbara & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Okhrin, Ostap, 2009. "CDO and HAC," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2009-038, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    7. Richter, Andreas & Weber, Frederik, 2009. "Mortality-Indexed Annuities," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 10994, University of Munich, Munich School of Management.
    8. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-038 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Wang, Pengjie & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Vahid, Farshid, 2023. "Multi-population mortality projection: The augmented common factor model with structural breaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 450-469.
    10. Franca Glenzer & Bertrand Achou, 2019. "Annuities, long-term care insurance, and insurer solvency," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 44(2), pages 252-276, April.
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    12. Helena Chuliá & Montserrat Guillén & Jorge M. Uribe, 2015. "Mortality and Longevity Risks in the United Kingdom: Dynamic Factor Models and Copula-Functions," Working Papers 2015-03, Universitat de Barcelona, UB Riskcenter.
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    14. Höring, Dirk, 2012. "Will Solvency II market risk requirements bite? The impact of Solvency II on insurers' asset allocation," ICIR Working Paper Series 11/12, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Life insurance; asset-liability management; stochastic mortality; Lee-Carter model; business cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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