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Multi-population modelling and forecasting life-table death counts

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  • Shang, Han Lin
  • Haberman, Steven
  • Xu, Ruofan

Abstract

When modelling the age distribution of death counts for multiple populations, we should consider three features: (1) how to incorporate any possible correlation among multiple populations to improve point and interval forecast accuracy through multi-population joint modelling; (2) how to forecast age distribution of death counts so that the forecasts are non-negative and have a constrained integral; (3) how to construct a prediction interval that is well-calibrated in terms of coverage. Within the framework of compositional data analysis, we apply a log-ratio transform to transform a constrained space into an unconstrained space. We apply multivariate and multilevel functional time series methods to forecast period life-table death counts in the unconstrained space. Through the inverse log-ratio transformation, the forecast period life-table death counts are obtained. Using the age-specific period life-table death counts in England and Wales and Sweden obtained from the Human Mortality Database (2022), we investigate one-step-ahead to 30-step-ahead point and interval forecast accuracies of the proposed models and make our recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Shang, Han Lin & Haberman, Steven & Xu, Ruofan, 2022. "Multi-population modelling and forecasting life-table death counts," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 239-253.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:106:y:2022:i:c:p:239-253
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2022.07.002
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    1. Basellini, Ugofilippo & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni & Booth, Heather, 2023. "Thirty years on: A review of the Lee–Carter method for forecasting mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1033-1049.
    2. Hung-Tsung Hsiao & Chou-Wen Wang & I.-Chien Liu & Ko-Lun Kung, 2024. "Mortality improvement neural-network models with autoregressive effects," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 49(2), pages 363-383, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Age distribution of death counts; Compositional data analysis; Functional principal component analysis; Log-ratio transformation; Multivariate and multilevel functional principal component regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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