IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jgeosy/v23y2021i1d10.1007_s10109-020-00329-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A methodology for projecting sparse populations and its application to remote Indigenous communities

Author

Listed:
  • Alfred Michael Dockery

    (Curtin University)

  • Mark N. Harris

    (Curtin University)

  • Nicholas Holyoak

    (Flinders University)

  • Ranjodh B. Singh

    (Curtin University)

Abstract

A new method is proposed for generating projections for sparse populations by locality, age cohort and gender. An adaptation of the cohort replacement method, the approach uses a Tobit model with varying censoring limits to model population changes by cohort. As an applied example, projections are generated for 2016 Indigenous populations in communities in regional and remote Australia, and then compared to actual 2016 Census population counts. We argue the approach has considerable potential, with the model performing well in out-of-sample projection while offering projections at a much finer-grained level of disaggregation than currently available to planners and policy-makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfred Michael Dockery & Mark N. Harris & Nicholas Holyoak & Ranjodh B. Singh, 2021. "A methodology for projecting sparse populations and its application to remote Indigenous communities," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 37-61, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jgeosy:v:23:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10109-020-00329-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10109-020-00329-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10109-020-00329-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10109-020-00329-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    2. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1984. "Tobit models: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 3-61.
    3. James Raymer & Yanlin Shi & James O’Donnell & Nicholas Biddle, 2018. "Multistate projections of Australia’s Indigenous population: interacting area group and identification status change," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 135-162.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Moskos, Megan & Isherwood, Linda & Dockery, Michael & Habibis, Daphne & Grealy, Liam & Benedict, Richard & Harris, Mark & Singh, Ranjodh & Lea, Tess, 2024. "Indigenous mobility and its impact on remote infrastructural needs: an exploratory study," SocArXiv 6u78f, Center for Open Science.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Calcagno, R. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2004. "Capital Structure and Managerial Compensation : The Effects of Renumeration Seniority," Discussion Paper 2004-120, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    2. Simplice A. Asongu & Mushfiqur Rahman & Mohammad Alghababsheh, 2022. "Information Technology, Business Sustainability and Female Economic Participation in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 22/057, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    3. Andrés Felipe Martínez, 2006. "Determinantes de la supervivencia de empresas industriales en el área metropolitana de Cali 1994-2003," Ensayos Sobre Economía Regional (ESER) 2320, Banco de la República - Economía Regional.
    4. Renneboog, L.D.R. & Szilagyi, P.G., 2009. "Shareholder Activism through the Proxy Process," Other publications TiSEM cc25d736-2965-4511-b100-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.
    6. Brannlund, Runar & Nordstrom, Jonas, 2004. "Carbon tax simulations using a household demand model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 211-233, February.
    7. Eunsil Seok & Akhgar Ghassabian & Yuyan Wang & Mengling Liu, 2024. "Statistical Methods for Modeling Exposure Variables Subject to Limit of Detection," Statistics in Biosciences, Springer;International Chinese Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 435-458, July.
    8. Verbeek, M.J.C.M. & Nijman, T.E., 1992. "Incomplete panels and selection bias : A survey," Discussion Paper 1992-7, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    9. Lynne, Gary D. & Franklin Casey, C. & Hodges, Alan & Rahmani, Mohammed, 1995. "Conservation technology adoption decisions and the theory of planned behavior," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 581-598, December.
    10. Giovanni Marin & Francesca Lotti, 2017. "Productivity effects of eco-innovations using data on eco-patents," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 26(1), pages 125-148.
    11. Coates, Dennis & Humphreys, Brad, 2011. "Game Attendance and Competitive Balance in the National Hockey League," Working Papers 2011-8, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    12. Getachew A. Dagne, 2016. "A growth mixture Tobit model: application to AIDS studies," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(7), pages 1174-1185, July.
    13. Rama Lionel Ngenzebuke, 2016. "Female say on income and child outcomes: Evidence from Nigeria," WIDER Working Paper Series 134, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Gerko Vink & Laurence E. Frank & Jeroen Pannekoek & Stef Buuren, 2014. "Predictive mean matching imputation of semicontinuous variables," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 68(1), pages 61-90, February.
    15. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2022. "The of role economic growth in modulating mobile connectivity dynamics for financial inclusion in developing countries," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 22/013, African Governance and Development Institute..
    16. Laeven, Luc, 2001. "Insider Lending and Bank Ownership: The Case of Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 207-229, June.
    17. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    18. Finco, Adele & Padella, Monica & Di Pronio, Guido & Pollonara, Mirco, 2008. "Dinamiche del commercio internazionale dell'olio di oliva italiano: un'analisi prospettica," 2008 XVI Convegno Annuale SIEA - Le Dinamiche del Commercio Agro-alimentare Tra Commodities e Prodotti Differenziati, 5-6 Giugno 2008, Trieste 48194, Italian Society of Agri-food Economics/Società Italiana di Economia Agro-Alimentare (SIEA).
    19. repec:tiu:tiucen:200457 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-015 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Yan Zhang, 2013. "Fair Lending Analysis of Mortgage Pricing: Does Underwriting Matter?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 131-151, January.
    22. Vavra, Pavel & Colman, David, 2003. "The analysis of UK crop allocation at the farm level: implications for supply response analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 697-713, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population modelling; Population projections; Cohort replacement; Regional and remote; Indigenous; Australia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jgeosy:v:23:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10109-020-00329-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.