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Drought Severity Assessment Based on Bivariate Probability Analysis

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  • Harris Vangelis
  • Mike Spiliotis
  • George Tsakiris

Abstract

Conventionally drought severity is assessed based on drought indices. Recently the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) was proposed to assess drought severity based on the precipitation to potential evapotranspiration ratio (P/PET). In this paper RDI is studied as a bivariate index under a set of assumptions and simplifications. The paper presents a simple computational procedure for estimating the P/PET ratio for selected reference periods varying from 3 to 12 months, for any return period of drought. Alternatively, based on this procedure, the severity of any drought episode is rationally assessed. A bivariate probability analysis is employed based on the assumption that P and PET values are normally distributed and often negatively correlated. Examples for the application of the proposed procedure are presented using data from several meteorological stations in Greece. It is shown that the assumption of normality of both P and PET holds for long periods at all examined stations. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Harris Vangelis & Mike Spiliotis & George Tsakiris, 2011. "Drought Severity Assessment Based on Bivariate Probability Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(1), pages 357-371, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:25:y:2011:i:1:p:357-371
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-010-9704-y
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    1. Desalegn Edossa & Mukand Babel & Ashim Das Gupta, 2010. "Drought Analysis in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(7), pages 1441-1460, May.
    2. I. Nalbantis & G. Tsakiris, 2009. "Assessment of Hydrological Drought Revisited," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(5), pages 881-897, March.
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    1. Muhammad Imran Khan & Dong Liu & Qiang Fu & Qaisar Saddique & Muhammad Abrar Faiz & Tianxiao Li & Muhammad Uzair Qamar & Song Cui & Chen Cheng, 2017. "Projected Changes of Future Extreme Drought Events under Numerous Drought Indices in the Heilongjiang Province of China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(12), pages 3921-3937, September.
    2. Abolfazl Mosaedi & Hamid Zare Abyaneh & Mohammad Ghabaei Sough & S. Samadi, 2015. "Quantifying Changes in Reconnaissance Drought Index using Equiprobability Transformation Function," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2451-2469, June.
    3. Panagiotis Angelidis & Fotios Maris & Nikos Kotsovinos & Vlassios Hrissanthou, 2012. "Computation of Drought Index SPI with Alternative Distribution Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(9), pages 2453-2473, July.
    4. G. Buttafuoco & T. Caloiero & R. Coscarelli, 2015. "Analyses of Drought Events in Calabria (Southern Italy) Using Standardized Precipitation Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 557-573, January.
    5. Julius Fabian & Emir Zelenhasic, 2016. "Modelling of Meteo-Droughts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(9), pages 3229-3246, July.
    6. Manman Zhang & Dang Luo & Yongqiang Su, 2022. "Drought monitoring and agricultural drought loss risk assessment based on multisource information fusion," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(1), pages 775-801, March.
    7. Zhang, Yaling & Guo, Li & Liang, Chuan & Zhao, Lu & Wang, Junqin & Zhan, Cun & Jiang, Shouzheng, 2022. "Encounter risk analysis of crop water requirements and effective precipitation based on the copula method in the Hilly Area of Southwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    8. Jinping Zhang & Yong Zhao & Weihua Xiao, 2014. "Study on Markov Joint Transition Probability and Encounter Probability of Rainfall and Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in the Irrigation District," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5543-5553, December.
    9. Seyed Banimahd & Davar Khalili, 2013. "Factors Influencing Markov Chains Predictability Characteristics, Utilizing SPI, RDI, EDI and SPEI Drought Indices in Different Climatic Zones," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(11), pages 3911-3928, September.
    10. Dedi Liu & Xiaohong Chen & Teddy Nakato, 2012. "Resilience Assessment of Water Resources System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(13), pages 3743-3755, October.
    11. Poulomi Ganguli & M. Reddy, 2012. "Risk Assessment of Droughts in Gujarat Using Bivariate Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(11), pages 3301-3327, September.
    12. Mike Spiliotis & Luis Mediero & Luis Garrote, 2016. "Optimization of Hedging Rules for Reservoir Operation During Droughts Based on Particle Swarm Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5759-5778, December.
    13. Abdelaaziz Merabti & Mohamed Meddi & Diogo S. Martins & Luis S. Pereira, 2018. "Comparing SPI and RDI Applied at Local Scale as Influenced by Climate," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(3), pages 1071-1085, February.
    14. Teodoro Estrela & Elisa Vargas, 2012. "Drought Management Plans in the European Union. The Case of Spain," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(6), pages 1537-1553, April.
    15. George Tsakiris & Nikos Kordalis & Dimitris Tigkas & Vasileios Tsakiris & Harris Vangelis, 2016. "Analysing Drought Severity and Areal Extent by 2D Archimedean Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5723-5735, December.
    16. Domenico Caracciolo & D. Pumo & F. Viola, 2018. "Budyko’s Based Method for Annual Runoff Characterization across Different Climatic Areas: an Application to United States," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(9), pages 3189-3202, July.

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