IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v32y2018i5d10.1007_s11269-018-1902-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Streamflow and Hydrological Drought Trend Analysis and Forecasting in Cyprus

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitrios Myronidis

    (Aristotle University of Thessaloniki)

  • Konstantinos Ioannou

    (Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology)

  • Dimitrios Fotakis

    (Institute of Plant Breeding & Phytogenetic Resources)

  • Gerald Dörflinger

    (Division of Hydrometry, Water Development Department)

Abstract

The persistent water shortage in Cyprus has been alleviated by importing freshwater from neighbouring countries, and severe droughts have been met with financial reimbursement from the EU at least twice. The goal of this research is to investigate and perform short-term forecasting of both streamflow and hydrological drought trends over the island. Eleven hydrometric stations with a 34-year common record length of the mean daily discharge from 10/1979 to 09/2013 are used for this purpose, with the relevant upstream catchments considered to represent pristine conditions. The Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) successfully captures the hydrological drought conditions over the island, and the performance of the index is validated based on both the historic drought archives and results from other drought indices for the island. The Mann–Kendall (M-K) test reveals that the annual and seasonal time series of the discharge volumes always illustrate a decreasing but insignificant trend at a significance level of a = 0.05; additionally, the decrease per decade in the average annual streamflow volume based on Sen’s slope statistic is approximately −9.4%. The M-K test on the SDI reveals that drought conditions intensified with time. Ten autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are built and used to forecast the mean monthly streamflow values with moderate accuracy; the best ARIMA forecast model in each catchment is derived by comparing two model-performance statistical measures for the different (p,d,q) model parameters. The predicted discharge values are processed by the SDI-3 index, revealing that non-drought conditions are expected in most catchments in the upcoming three months, although mild-drought conditions are anticipated for catchments 7, 8 and 9.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios Myronidis & Konstantinos Ioannou & Dimitrios Fotakis & Gerald Dörflinger, 2018. "Streamflow and Hydrological Drought Trend Analysis and Forecasting in Cyprus," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1759-1776, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:5:d:10.1007_s11269-018-1902-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-1902-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-018-1902-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-018-1902-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dimitrios Myronidis & Dimitrios Stathis & Konstantinos Ioannou & Dimitrios Fotakis, 2012. "An Integration of Statistics Temporal Methods to Track the Effect of Drought in a Shallow Mediterranean Lake," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(15), pages 4587-4605, December.
    2. U. Surendran & V. Kumar & S. Ramasubramoniam & P. Raja, 2017. "Development of Drought Indices for Semi-Arid Region Using Drought Indices Calculator (DrinC) – A Case Study from Madurai District, a Semi-Arid Region in India," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(11), pages 3593-3605, September.
    3. Jae Ryu & Mohammad Sohrabi & Anil Acharya, 2014. "Toward Mapping Gridded Drought Indices to Evaluate Local Drought in a Rapidly Changing Global Environment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(11), pages 3859-3869, September.
    4. Hui-cheng Zhou & Yong Peng & Guo-hua Liang, 2008. "The Research of Monthly Discharge Predictor-corrector Model Based on Wavelet Decomposition," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(2), pages 217-227, February.
    5. Lampros Vasiliades & Athanasios Loukas & Nikos Liberis, 2011. "A Water Balance Derived Drought Index for Pinios River Basin, Greece," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(4), pages 1087-1101, March.
    6. G. Tsakiris & D. Pangalou & H. Vangelis, 2007. "Regional Drought Assessment Based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(5), pages 821-833, May.
    7. Sheng Yue & ChunYuan Wang, 2004. "The Mann-Kendall Test Modified by Effective Sample Size to Detect Trend in Serially Correlated Hydrological Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 18(3), pages 201-218, June.
    8. Desalegn Edossa & Mukand Babel & Ashim Das Gupta, 2010. "Drought Analysis in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(7), pages 1441-1460, May.
    9. Babak Amirataee & Majid Montaseri, 2017. "The performance of SPI and PNPI in analyzing the spatial and temporal trend of dry and wet periods over Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(1), pages 89-106, March.
    10. Koutroumanidis, Theodoros & Ioannou, Konstantinos & Arabatzis, Garyfallos, 2009. "Predicting fuelwood prices in Greece with the use of ARIMA models, artificial neural networks and a hybrid ARIMA-ANN model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3627-3634, September.
    11. Alpaslan Yarar, 2014. "A Hybrid Wavelet and Neuro-Fuzzy Model for Forecasting the Monthly Streamflow Data," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(2), pages 553-565, January.
    12. I. Nalbantis & G. Tsakiris, 2009. "Assessment of Hydrological Drought Revisited," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(5), pages 881-897, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi & Abdol Rassoul Zarei, 2022. "Using Periodic Copula to Assess the Relationship Between Two Meteorological Cyclostationary Time Series Datasets," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(11), pages 4363-4388, September.
    2. Alan de Gois Barbosa & Alcigeimes B. Celeste & Ludmilson Abritta Mendes, 2021. "Influence of Inflow Nonstationarity on the Multipurpose Optimal Operation of Hydropower Plants Using Nonlinear Programming," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(8), pages 2343-2367, June.
    3. Yani Lian & Jungang Luo & Jingmin Wang & Ganggang Zuo & Na Wei, 2022. "Climate-driven Model Based on Long Short-Term Memory and Bayesian Optimization for Multi-day-ahead Daily Streamflow Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(1), pages 21-37, January.
    4. Huseyin Cagan Kilinc & Adem Yurtsever, 2022. "Short-Term Streamflow Forecasting Using Hybrid Deep Learning Model Based on Grey Wolf Algorithm for Hydrological Time Series," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-20, March.
    5. V. K. Prajapati & M. Khanna & M. Singh & R. Kaur & R. N. Sahoo & D. K. Singh, 2021. "Evaluation of time scale of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought indices," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 89-109, October.
    6. Temidayo Olowoyeye & Mariusz Ptak & Mariusz Sojka, 2023. "How Do Extreme Lake Water Temperatures in Poland Respond to Climate Change?," Resources, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-19, September.
    7. Muhammad Ali Musarat & Wesam Salah Alaloul & Muhammad Babar Ali Rabbani & Mujahid Ali & Muhammad Altaf & Roman Fediuk & Nikolai Vatin & Sergey Klyuev & Hamna Bukhari & Alishba Sadiq & Waqas Rafiq & Wa, 2021. "Kabul River Flow Prediction Using Automated ARIMA Forecasting: A Machine Learning Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-26, September.
    8. Neeta Nandgude & T. P. Singh & Sachin Nandgude & Mukesh Tiwari, 2023. "Drought Prediction: A Comprehensive Review of Different Drought Prediction Models and Adopted Technologies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-19, July.
    9. Elham Forootan, 2019. "Analysis of trends of hydrologic and climatic variables," Soil and Water Research, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 14(3), pages 163-171.
    10. Anurag Malik & Anil Kumar & Rajesh P. Singh, 2019. "Application of Heuristic Approaches for Prediction of Hydrological Drought Using Multi-scalar Streamflow Drought Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(11), pages 3985-4006, September.
    11. Ming Kong & Jieni Zhao & Chuanfu Zang & Yiting Li & Jinglin Deng, 2023. "Characteristics and Driving Mechanism of Water Resources Trend Change in Hanjiang River Basin," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-19, February.
    12. Fangqin Zhang & Yan Kang & Xiao Cheng & Peiru Chen & Songbai Song, 2022. "A Hybrid Model Integrating Elman Neural Network with Variational Mode Decomposition and Box–Cox Transformation for Monthly Runoff Time Series Prediction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3673-3697, August.
    13. Okan Mert Katipoğlu, 2023. "Prediction of Streamflow Drought Index for Short-Term Hydrological Drought in the Semi-Arid Yesilirmak Basin Using Wavelet Transform and Artificial Intelligence Techniques," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-24, January.
    14. Ting Wei & Songbai Song, 2022. "Comparison of Frequency Calculation Methods for Precipitation Series Containing Zero Values," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(2), pages 527-550, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Panagiotis Angelidis & Fotios Maris & Nikos Kotsovinos & Vlassios Hrissanthou, 2012. "Computation of Drought Index SPI with Alternative Distribution Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(9), pages 2453-2473, July.
    2. Nadjib Haied & Atif Foufou & Samira Khadri & Adel Boussaid & Mohamed Azlaoui & Nabil Bougherira, 2023. "Spatial and Temporal Assessment of Drought Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk in Three Different Climatic Zones in Algeria Using Two Commonly Used Meteorological Indices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-25, May.
    3. Jianzhu Li & Shuhan Zhou & Rong Hu, 2016. "Hydrological Drought Class Transition Using SPI and SRI Time Series by Loglinear Regression," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 669-684, January.
    4. Alireza Shokoohi & Reza Morovati, 2015. "Basinwide Comparison of RDI and SPI Within an IWRM Framework," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 2011-2026, April.
    5. Ali Tabrizi & Davar Khalili & Ali Kamgar-Haghighi & Shahrokh Zand-Parsa, 2010. "Utilization of Time-Based Meteorological Droughts to Investigate Occurrence of Streamflow Droughts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(15), pages 4287-4306, December.
    6. U. Surendran & B. Anagha & P. Raja & V. Kumar & K. Rajan & M. Jayakumar, 2019. "Analysis of Drought from Humid, Semi-Arid and Arid Regions of India Using DrinC Model with Different Drought Indices," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(4), pages 1521-1540, March.
    7. Dimitrios Myronidis & Dimitrios Stathis & Konstantinos Ioannou & Dimitrios Fotakis, 2012. "An Integration of Statistics Temporal Methods to Track the Effect of Drought in a Shallow Mediterranean Lake," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(15), pages 4587-4605, December.
    8. Jianzhu Li & Shuhan Zhou & Rong Hu, 2016. "Hydrological Drought Class Transition Using SPI and SRI Time Series by Loglinear Regression," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 669-684, January.
    9. Pravat Jena & K. S. Kasiviswanathan & Sarita Azad, 2020. "Spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme droughts and their association with sea surface temperature over the Cauvery River basin, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2239-2259, December.
    10. Fernando Oñate-Valdivieso & Veronica Uchuari & Arianna Oñate-Paladines, 2020. "Large-Scale Climate Variability Patterns and Drought: A Case of Study in South – America," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(6), pages 2061-2079, April.
    11. N. Subash & H. Mohan, 2011. "A Simple Rationally Integrated Drought Indicator for Rice–Wheat Productivity," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(10), pages 2425-2447, August.
    12. Lampros Vasiliades & Athanasios Loukas & Nikos Liberis, 2011. "A Water Balance Derived Drought Index for Pinios River Basin, Greece," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(4), pages 1087-1101, March.
    13. Youxin Wang & Tao Peng & Qingxia Lin & Vijay P. Singh & Xiaohua Dong & Chen Chen & Ji Liu & Wenjuan Chang & Gaoxu Wang, 2022. "A New Non-stationary Hydrological Drought Index Encompassing Climate Indices and Modified Reservoir Index as Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(7), pages 2433-2454, May.
    14. Maryam Shafaei & Ozgur Kisi, 2016. "Lake Level Forecasting Using Wavelet-SVR, Wavelet-ANFIS and Wavelet-ARMA Conjunction Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(1), pages 79-97, January.
    15. Hossein Tabari & Jaefar Nikbakht & P. Hosseinzadeh Talaee, 2013. "Hydrological Drought Assessment in Northwestern Iran Based on Streamflow Drought Index (SDI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(1), pages 137-151, January.
    16. Jagadish Padhiary & Kanhu Charan Patra & Sonam Sandeep Dash, 2022. "A Novel Approach to Identify the Characteristics of Drought under Future Climate Change Scenario," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(13), pages 5163-5189, October.
    17. Peng Qi & Y. Jun Xu & Guodong Wang, 2020. "Quantifying the Individual Contributions of Climate Change, Dam Construction, and Land Use/Land Cover Change to Hydrological Drought in a Marshy River," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-16, May.
    18. Enes Gul & Efthymia Staiou & Mir Jafar Sadegh Safari & Babak Vaheddoost, 2023. "Enhancing Meteorological Drought Modeling Accuracy Using Hybrid Boost Regression Models: A Case Study from the Aegean Region, Türkiye," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-17, July.
    19. Hossein Tabari & Reza Zamani & Hossein Rahmati & Patrick Willems, 2015. "Markov Chains of Different Orders for Streamflow Drought Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3441-3457, July.
    20. U. Surendran & V. Kumar & S. Ramasubramoniam & P. Raja, 2017. "Development of Drought Indices for Semi-Arid Region Using Drought Indices Calculator (DrinC) – A Case Study from Madurai District, a Semi-Arid Region in India," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(11), pages 3593-3605, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:5:d:10.1007_s11269-018-1902-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.