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Analysing Drought Severity and Areal Extent by 2D Archimedean Copulas

Author

Listed:
  • George Tsakiris

    (National Technical University of Athens)

  • Nikos Kordalis

    (National Technical University of Athens)

  • Dimitris Tigkas

    (National Technical University of Athens)

  • Vasileios Tsakiris

    (National Technical University of Athens)

  • Harris Vangelis

    (National Technical University of Athens)

Abstract

Droughts can be considered as multidimensional hazardous phenomena characterised by three attributes: severity, duration and areal extent. Conventionally, drought events are assessed for their severity, using drought indices such as SPI (Standardised Precipitation Index), RDI (Reconnaissance Drought Index), PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index) and many others. This approach may be extended to incorporate the modelling of an additional dimension, the duration or the areal extent. Since the marginal distributions describing these dimensions of drought are often different, no simple mixed probability distribution can be used for the bivariate frequency analysis. The copula approach seems to be sufficiently general and suitable for this type of analysis. It is the aim of this paper to analyse droughts as two-dimensional phenomena, including drought severity and areal extent. In this paper, the Gumbel-Hougaard copula from the Archimedean family is used for this two-dimensional frequency analysis. Annual data on historical droughts from Eastern Crete are analysed for their severity and areal extent, producing copula-based probability distributions, incorporating Gumbel marginal probability functions. Useful conclusions are derived for estimating the «OR» return period of drought events related to both severity and areal extent.

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  • George Tsakiris & Nikos Kordalis & Dimitris Tigkas & Vasileios Tsakiris & Harris Vangelis, 2016. "Analysing Drought Severity and Areal Extent by 2D Archimedean Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5723-5735, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:30:y:2016:i:15:d:10.1007_s11269-016-1543-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1543-z
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    Cited by:

    1. George Tsakiris, 2017. "Drought Risk Assessment and Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 3083-3095, August.
    2. Xingang Wang & Bingxiang Wang & Miaoxin Chang & Lei Li, 2020. "Reliability and sensitivity analysis for bearings considering the correlation of multiple failure modes by mixed Copula function," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(1), pages 15-26, February.
    3. Vergni, L. & Todisco, F. & Di Lena, B. & Mannocchi, F., 2020. "Bivariate analysis of drought duration and severity for irrigation planning," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    4. Lamneithem Hangshing & Parmendra P. Dabral, 2018. "Multivariate Frequency Analysis of Meteorological Drought Using Copula," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1741-1758, March.
    5. Abdelaaziz Merabti & Mohamed Meddi & Diogo S. Martins & Luis S. Pereira, 2018. "Comparing SPI and RDI Applied at Local Scale as Influenced by Climate," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(3), pages 1071-1085, February.
    6. Abdelaaziz Merabti & Diogo S. Martins & Mohamed Meddi & Luis S. Pereira, 2018. "Spatial and Time Variability of Drought Based on SPI and RDI with Various Time Scales," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(3), pages 1087-1100, February.
    7. Gokmen Tayfur & Bihrat Onoz & Antonino Cancelliere & Luis Garrote, 2016. "Editorial: Water Resources Management in a Changing World: Challenges and Opportunities," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5553-5557, December.
    8. Mohammad Amin Asadi Zarch, 2022. "Past and Future Global Drought Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(13), pages 5259-5276, October.
    9. Elaheh Motevali Bashi Naeini & Ali Mohammad Akhoond-Ali & Fereydoun Radmanesh & Jahangir Abedi Koupai & Shahrokh Soltaninia, 2021. "Comparison of the Calculated Drought Return Periods Using Tri-variate and Bivariate Copula Functions Under Climate Change Condition," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(14), pages 4855-4875, November.
    10. Fawen Li & Huifeng Liu & Xu Chen & Dong Yu, 2019. "Trivariate Copula Based Evaluation Model of Water Accessibility," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(9), pages 3211-3225, July.
    11. Olusola O. Ayantobo & Yi Li & Songbai Song, 2019. "Multivariate Drought Frequency Analysis using Four-Variate Symmetric and Asymmetric Archimedean Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(1), pages 103-127, January.
    12. Jiawei Zhou & Xiaohong Chen & Chuang Xu & Pan Wu, 2022. "Assessing Socioeconomic Drought Based on a Standardized Supply and Demand Water Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(6), pages 1937-1953, April.
    13. Antonino Cancelliere, 2017. "Non Stationary Analysis of Extreme Events," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 3097-3110, August.

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