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The Impact of Climate Change on Hydro-Meteorological Droughts Using Copula Functions

Author

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  • Zahra Fahimirad

    (University of Qom)

  • Nazanin Shahkarami

    (Arak University)

Abstract

Climate change has made many alterations to the climate of earth, including hydro-climatic extreme events. To investigate the impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological droughts in the Kamal-Saleh dam basin in Markazi province, Iran, proportional to future climate conditions, a new and comprehensive index was developed with the aim of accurately estimating drought in a more realistic condition. This aggregate drought index (ADI) represented the main meteorological and hydrological characteristics of drought. Temperature and precipitation projections for future climates were simulated by five CMIP5 models and downscaled over the study area during 2050s (2040–2069) and 2080s (2070–2099) relative to the baseline period (1976–2005). By fitting five univariate distribution functions on drought severity and duration, proper marginal distributions were selected. The joint distribution of drought severity and duration was chosen from five types of copula functions. The results revealed that in future, severe droughts are expected to frequently occur in a shorter period.

Suggested Citation

  • Zahra Fahimirad & Nazanin Shahkarami, 2021. "The Impact of Climate Change on Hydro-Meteorological Droughts Using Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 3969-3993, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:12:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02918-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02918-z
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mohamad Khoirun Najib & Sri Nurdiati & Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, 2022. "Multivariate fire risk models using copula regression in Kalimantan, Indonesia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(2), pages 1263-1283, September.
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    4. Ibrahim Halil Deger & Musa Esıt & Mehmet Ishak Yuce, 2023. "Univariate and Bivariate Hydrological Drought Frequency Analysis by Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(12), pages 4881-4907, September.
    5. Kaitano Dube, 2024. "El Niño’s Implications for the Victoria Falls Resort and Tourism Economy in the Era of Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-15, June.

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