IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v115y2023i3d10.1007_s11069-022-05650-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring spatio-temporal variation of drought characteristics and propagation under climate change using multi-model ensemble projections

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Jehanzaib

    (Hanyang University)

  • Sabab Ali Shah

    (Hanyang University)

  • Ji Eun Kim

    (Hanyang University)

  • Tae-Woong Kim

    (Hanyang University)

Abstract

Climate variation is a primary driving force influencing the hydrological cycle, resulting in extreme natural disasters such as drought. Investigating the linkage between meteorological and hydrological droughts under climate change is critical for early warning against hydrological drought. In this study, we investigated spatial and temporal characteristics of the drought propagation threshold (PT) in the Han River Basin (HRB) of South Korea. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) were employed to represent meteorological drought and hydrological drought, respectively. Correlation analyses between the SPI at various time scales (1–24 months) and the three-month SRI (SRI-3) were performed to identify the best time scale of SPI corresponding to the SRI-3. To investigate PTs, five general circulation models (GCMs) were selected to compute multi-model ensemble projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. A future period (2021–2099) was sub-divided into two periods such as P2 (2021–2060) and P3 (2061–2099) to estimate temporal variation of PT. Our results indicated that the SPI-4 showed the highest correlation with the SRI-3 in P1, while the SPI-3 best corresponded to the SRI-3 in future periods under both climate change scenarios. Drought characteristics of meteorological and hydrological drought showed increasing trends in P2 and P3 under both climate change scenarios. Spatio-temporal variation in PT was observed throughout the HRB. The PT showed significant decreases in both future periods, while the highest percentage decreases were observed in watersheds located in the northern, mid, and western parts of the HRB in P3 under both climate change scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Jehanzaib & Sabab Ali Shah & Ji Eun Kim & Tae-Woong Kim, 2023. "Exploring spatio-temporal variation of drought characteristics and propagation under climate change using multi-model ensemble projections," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(3), pages 2483-2503, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:115:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05650-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05650-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-022-05650-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-022-05650-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Desalegn Edossa & Mukand Babel & Ashim Das Gupta, 2010. "Drought Analysis in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(7), pages 1441-1460, May.
    2. Muhammad Nouman Sattar & Jin-Young Lee & Ji-Yae Shin & Tae-Woong Kim, 2019. "Probabilistic Characteristics of Drought Propagation from Meteorological to Hydrological Drought in South Korea," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(7), pages 2439-2452, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jale Amanuel Dufera & Tewodros Addisu Yate & Tadesse Tujuba Kenea, 2023. "Spatiotemporal analysis of drought in Oromia regional state of Ethiopia over the period 1989 to 2019," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(2), pages 1569-1609, June.
    2. Ashenafi Yimam Kassaye & Guangcheng Shao & Xiaojun Wang & Shiqing Wu, 2021. "Quantification of drought severity change in Ethiopia during 1952–2017," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5096-5121, April.
    3. Dimitrios Myronidis & Konstantinos Ioannou & Dimitrios Fotakis & Gerald Dörflinger, 2018. "Streamflow and Hydrological Drought Trend Analysis and Forecasting in Cyprus," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1759-1776, March.
    4. Muhammad Nouman Sattar & Jin-Young Lee & Ji-Yae Shin & Tae-Woong Kim, 2019. "Probabilistic Characteristics of Drought Propagation from Meteorological to Hydrological Drought in South Korea," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(7), pages 2439-2452, May.
    5. Samane Saadat & Davar Khalili & Ali Kamgar-Haghighi & Shahrokh Zand-Parsa, 2013. "Investigation of spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal streamflow droughts in a semi-arid region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 1697-1720, December.
    6. Alireza Shokoohi & Reza Morovati, 2015. "Basinwide Comparison of RDI and SPI Within an IWRM Framework," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 2011-2026, April.
    7. Ali Tabrizi & Davar Khalili & Ali Kamgar-Haghighi & Shahrokh Zand-Parsa, 2010. "Utilization of Time-Based Meteorological Droughts to Investigate Occurrence of Streamflow Droughts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(15), pages 4287-4306, December.
    8. Kumar Amrit & Rajendra P. Pandey & Surendra K. Mishra, 2018. "Characteristics of meteorological droughts in northwestern India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(2), pages 561-582, November.
    9. Panagiotis Angelidis & Fotios Maris & Nikos Kotsovinos & Vlassios Hrissanthou, 2012. "Computation of Drought Index SPI with Alternative Distribution Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(9), pages 2453-2473, July.
    10. Harris Vangelis & Mike Spiliotis & George Tsakiris, 2011. "Drought Severity Assessment Based on Bivariate Probability Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(1), pages 357-371, January.
    11. Maurizio Tiepolo & Maurizio Bacci & Sarah Braccio & Stefano Bechis, 2019. "Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment at Community Level Integrating Local and Scientific Knowledge in the Hodh Chargui, Mauritania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-23, September.
    12. Muhammad Ashraf & Jayant Routray, 2015. "Spatio-temporal characteristics of precipitation and drought in Balochistan Province, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(1), pages 229-254, May.
    13. Borgomeo, Edoardo & Vadheim, Bryan & Woldeyes, Firew B. & Alamirew, Tena & Tamru, Seneshaw & Charles, Katrina J. & Kebede, Seifu & Walker, Oliver, 2018. "The Distributional and Multi-Sectoral Impacts of Rainfall Shocks: Evidence From Computable General Equilibrium Modelling for the Awash Basin, Ethiopia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 621-632.
    14. Manikandan Muthiah & Saravanan Sivarajan & Nagarajan Madasamy & Anandaraj Natarajan & Raviraj Ayyavoo, 2024. "Analyzing Rainfall Trends Using Statistical Methods across Vaippar Basin, Tamil Nadu, India: A Comprehensive Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-29, February.
    15. Omvir Singh & Divya Saini & Pankaj Bhardwaj, 2021. "Characterization of meteorological drought over a dryland ecosystem in north western India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 785-826, October.
    16. Fernando Oñate-Valdivieso & Veronica Uchuari & Arianna Oñate-Paladines, 2020. "Large-Scale Climate Variability Patterns and Drought: A Case of Study in South – America," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(6), pages 2061-2079, April.
    17. N. Subash & H. Mohan, 2011. "A Simple Rationally Integrated Drought Indicator for Rice–Wheat Productivity," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(10), pages 2425-2447, August.
    18. M. Ionita & P. Scholz & S. Chelcea, 2016. "Assessment of droughts in Romania using the Standardized Precipitation Index," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(3), pages 1483-1498, April.
    19. Fatih Tosunoglu & Ibrahim Can, 2016. "Application of copulas for regional bivariate frequency analysis of meteorological droughts in Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 1457-1477, July.
    20. Fahad Khan Khadim & Zoi Dokou & Rehenuma Lazin & Amvrossios C. Bagtzoglou & Emmanouil Anagnostou, 2023. "Groundwater Modeling to Assess Climate Change Impacts and Sustainability in the Tana Basin, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:115:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05650-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.