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Risk Assessment of Droughts in Gujarat Using Bivariate Copulas

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  • Poulomi Ganguli
  • M. Reddy

Abstract

This study presents risk assessment of hydrologic extreme events droughts in Saurashtra and Kutch region of Gujarat state, India. Drought is a recurrent phenomenon and risk assessment of droughts can play an important role in proper planning and management of water resources in the study region. In the study, drought events are characterized by severity and duration, and drought occurrences are modeled by Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) computed on mean areal precipitation, aggregated at a time scale of 6 months for the period 1900–2008. After evaluating several distribution functions, drought variable—severity is best described by non-parametric kernel density, whereas duration is best fitted by exponential distribution. Considering the extreme nature of drought variables, the upper tail dependence copula families including two Archimedean—Gumbel-Hougaard, BB1 and one elliptical—Student’s t copulas are evaluated for modeling joint distribution of drought variables. On evaluating their performance using various goodness-of-fit measures, Gumbel-Hougaard copula is found to be the best performing copula in modeling the joint dependence structure of drought variables. Also, while comparing with traditional bivariate distributions, the copula based distributions are resulted in better performance as compared to bivariate log-normal and the logistic model for bivariate extreme value distributions. Then joint and conditional return periods of drought characteristics are derived, which can be helpful for risk based planning and management of water resources systems in the study region. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Poulomi Ganguli & M. Reddy, 2012. "Risk Assessment of Droughts in Gujarat Using Bivariate Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(11), pages 3301-3327, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:26:y:2012:i:11:p:3301-3327
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0073-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harris Vangelis & Mike Spiliotis & George Tsakiris, 2011. "Drought Severity Assessment Based on Bivariate Probability Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(1), pages 357-371, January.
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    7. João Santos & Maria Portela & Inmaculada Pulido-Calvo, 2011. "Regional Frequency Analysis of Droughts in Portugal," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(14), pages 3537-3558, November.
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    1. Ge, Yan & Cai, Ximing & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia, 2016. "Drought frequency change: An assessment in northern India plains," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 111-121.
    2. Ziqiang Xing & Denghua Yan & Cheng Zhang & Gang Wang & Dongdong Zhang, 2015. "Spatial Characterization and Bivariate Frequency Analysis of Precipitation and Runoff in the Upper Huai River Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3291-3304, July.
    3. Junfei Chen & Menghua Deng & Lu Xia & Huimin Wang, 2017. "Risk Assessment of Drought, Based on IDM-VFS in the Nanpan River Basin, Yunnan Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-16, June.
    4. Kumar Amrit & Rajendra P. Pandey & Surendra K. Mishra, 2018. "Characteristics of meteorological droughts in northwestern India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(2), pages 561-582, November.
    5. Nejc Bezak & Matjaž Mikoš & Mojca Šraj, 2014. "Trivariate Frequency Analyses of Peak Discharge, Hydrograph Volume and Suspended Sediment Concentration Data Using Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(8), pages 2195-2212, June.
    6. Jenq-Tzong Shiau & Jia-Wei Lin, 2016. "Clustering Quantile Regression-Based Drought Trends in Taiwan," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(3), pages 1053-1069, February.
    7. Fatih Tosunoglu & Ibrahim Can, 2016. "Application of copulas for regional bivariate frequency analysis of meteorological droughts in Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 1457-1477, July.
    8. Jenq-Tzong Shiau, 2020. "Effects of Gamma-Distribution Variations on SPI-Based Stationary and Nonstationary Drought Analyses," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(6), pages 2081-2095, April.
    9. Dai, Meng & Huang, Shengzhi & Huang, Qiang & Leng, Guoyong & Guo, Yi & Wang, Lu & Fang, Wei & Li, Pei & Zheng, Xudong, 2020. "Assessing agricultural drought risk and its dynamic evolution characteristics," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    10. D. Chiru Naik & Sagar Rohidas Chavan & P. Sonali, 2023. "Incorporating the climate oscillations in the computation of meteorological drought over India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2617-2646, July.
    11. Vergni, L. & Todisco, F. & Di Lena, B. & Mannocchi, F., 2020. "Bivariate analysis of drought duration and severity for irrigation planning," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    12. Soumyashree Dixit & K. V. Jayakumar, 2022. "A Non-stationary and Probabilistic Approach for Drought Characterization Using Trivariate and Pairwise Copula Construction (PCC) Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1217-1236, March.
    13. Kalpana Venkatasubramanian & Smita Ramnarain, 2018. "Gender and Adaptation to Climate Change: Perspectives from a Pastoral Community in Gujarat, India," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 49(6), pages 1580-1604, November.
    14. L. Vergni & F. Todisco & F. Mannocchi, 2015. "Analysis of agricultural drought characteristics through a two-dimensional copula," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2819-2835, June.
    15. Hongjun Lei & Jie Yu & Hongwei Pan & Jie Li & Shah Jahan Leghari & Chongju Shang & Zheyuan Xiao & Cuicui Jin & Lili Shi, 2023. "A New Agricultural Drought Disaster Risk Assessment Framework: Coupled a Copula Function to Select Return Periods and the Jensen Model to Calculate Yield Loss," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, February.
    16. Fadhilah Yusof & Foo Hui-Mean & Jamaludin Suhaila & Zulkifli Yusof, 2013. "Characterisation of Drought Properties with Bivariate Copula Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(12), pages 4183-4207, September.
    17. Rina Wu & Jiquan Zhang & Yuhai Bao & Enliang Guo, 2019. "Run Theory and Copula-Based Drought Risk Analysis for Songnen Grassland in Northeastern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-17, October.
    18. George Tsakiris & Nikos Kordalis & Dimitris Tigkas & Vasileios Tsakiris & Harris Vangelis, 2016. "Analysing Drought Severity and Areal Extent by 2D Archimedean Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5723-5735, December.

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