IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v26y2012i11p3301-3327.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk Assessment of Droughts in Gujarat Using Bivariate Copulas

Author

Listed:
  • Poulomi Ganguli
  • M. Reddy

Abstract

This study presents risk assessment of hydrologic extreme events droughts in Saurashtra and Kutch region of Gujarat state, India. Drought is a recurrent phenomenon and risk assessment of droughts can play an important role in proper planning and management of water resources in the study region. In the study, drought events are characterized by severity and duration, and drought occurrences are modeled by Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) computed on mean areal precipitation, aggregated at a time scale of 6 months for the period 1900–2008. After evaluating several distribution functions, drought variable—severity is best described by non-parametric kernel density, whereas duration is best fitted by exponential distribution. Considering the extreme nature of drought variables, the upper tail dependence copula families including two Archimedean—Gumbel-Hougaard, BB1 and one elliptical—Student’s t copulas are evaluated for modeling joint distribution of drought variables. On evaluating their performance using various goodness-of-fit measures, Gumbel-Hougaard copula is found to be the best performing copula in modeling the joint dependence structure of drought variables. Also, while comparing with traditional bivariate distributions, the copula based distributions are resulted in better performance as compared to bivariate log-normal and the logistic model for bivariate extreme value distributions. Then joint and conditional return periods of drought characteristics are derived, which can be helpful for risk based planning and management of water resources systems in the study region. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Poulomi Ganguli & M. Reddy, 2012. "Risk Assessment of Droughts in Gujarat Using Bivariate Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(11), pages 3301-3327, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:26:y:2012:i:11:p:3301-3327
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0073-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-012-0073-6
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-012-0073-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohammad Asadi Zarch & Hossein Malekinezhad & Mohammad Mobin & Mohammad Dastorani & Mohammad Kousari, 2011. "Drought Monitoring by Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) in Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(13), pages 3485-3504, October.
    2. J. Shiau, 2006. "Fitting Drought Duration and Severity with Two-Dimensional Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(5), pages 795-815, October.
    3. Harris Vangelis & Mike Spiliotis & George Tsakiris, 2011. "Drought Severity Assessment Based on Bivariate Probability Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(1), pages 357-371, January.
    4. Frahm, Gabriel & Junker, Markus & Schmidt, Rafael, 2005. "Estimating the tail-dependence coefficient: Properties and pitfalls," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 80-100, August.
    5. G. Tsakiris & D. Pangalou & H. Vangelis, 2007. "Regional Drought Assessment Based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(5), pages 821-833, May.
    6. Nelsen, Roger B. & Quesada-Molina, José Juan & Rodri­guez-Lallena, José Antonio & Úbeda-Flores, Manuel, 2008. "On the construction of copulas and quasi-copulas with given diagonal sections," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 473-483, April.
    7. João Santos & Maria Portela & Inmaculada Pulido-Calvo, 2011. "Regional Frequency Analysis of Droughts in Portugal," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(14), pages 3537-3558, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ge, Yan & Cai, Ximing & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia, 2016. "Drought frequency change: An assessment in northern India plains," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 111-121.
    2. Hongjun Lei & Jie Yu & Hongwei Pan & Jie Li & Shah Jahan Leghari & Chongju Shang & Zheyuan Xiao & Cuicui Jin & Lili Shi, 2023. "A New Agricultural Drought Disaster Risk Assessment Framework: Coupled a Copula Function to Select Return Periods and the Jensen Model to Calculate Yield Loss," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, February.
    3. Vergni, L. & Todisco, F. & Di Lena, B. & Mannocchi, F., 2020. "Bivariate analysis of drought duration and severity for irrigation planning," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    4. Soumyashree Dixit & K. V. Jayakumar, 2022. "A Non-stationary and Probabilistic Approach for Drought Characterization Using Trivariate and Pairwise Copula Construction (PCC) Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1217-1236, March.
    5. Fadhilah Yusof & Foo Hui-Mean & Jamaludin Suhaila & Zulkifli Yusof, 2013. "Characterisation of Drought Properties with Bivariate Copula Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(12), pages 4183-4207, September.
    6. Jenq-Tzong Shiau & Jia-Wei Lin, 2016. "Clustering Quantile Regression-Based Drought Trends in Taiwan," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(3), pages 1053-1069, February.
    7. Ziqiang Xing & Denghua Yan & Cheng Zhang & Gang Wang & Dongdong Zhang, 2015. "Spatial Characterization and Bivariate Frequency Analysis of Precipitation and Runoff in the Upper Huai River Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3291-3304, July.
    8. Dai, Meng & Huang, Shengzhi & Huang, Qiang & Leng, Guoyong & Guo, Yi & Wang, Lu & Fang, Wei & Li, Pei & Zheng, Xudong, 2020. "Assessing agricultural drought risk and its dynamic evolution characteristics," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    9. Junfei Chen & Menghua Deng & Lu Xia & Huimin Wang, 2017. "Risk Assessment of Drought, Based on IDM-VFS in the Nanpan River Basin, Yunnan Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-16, June.
    10. Kalpana Venkatasubramanian & Smita Ramnarain, 2018. "Gender and Adaptation to Climate Change: Perspectives from a Pastoral Community in Gujarat, India," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 49(6), pages 1580-1604, November.
    11. Kumar Amrit & Rajendra P. Pandey & Surendra K. Mishra, 2018. "Characteristics of meteorological droughts in northwestern India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(2), pages 561-582, November.
    12. D. Chiru Naik & Sagar Rohidas Chavan & P. Sonali, 2023. "Incorporating the climate oscillations in the computation of meteorological drought over India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2617-2646, July.
    13. Fatih Tosunoglu & Ibrahim Can, 2016. "Application of copulas for regional bivariate frequency analysis of meteorological droughts in Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 1457-1477, July.
    14. Rina Wu & Jiquan Zhang & Yuhai Bao & Enliang Guo, 2019. "Run Theory and Copula-Based Drought Risk Analysis for Songnen Grassland in Northeastern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-17, October.
    15. George Tsakiris & Nikos Kordalis & Dimitris Tigkas & Vasileios Tsakiris & Harris Vangelis, 2016. "Analysing Drought Severity and Areal Extent by 2D Archimedean Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5723-5735, December.
    16. Jenq-Tzong Shiau, 2020. "Effects of Gamma-Distribution Variations on SPI-Based Stationary and Nonstationary Drought Analyses," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(6), pages 2081-2095, April.
    17. L. Vergni & F. Todisco & F. Mannocchi, 2015. "Analysis of agricultural drought characteristics through a two-dimensional copula," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2819-2835, June.
    18. Nejc Bezak & Matjaž Mikoš & Mojca Šraj, 2014. "Trivariate Frequency Analyses of Peak Discharge, Hydrograph Volume and Suspended Sediment Concentration Data Using Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(8), pages 2195-2212, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lamneithem Hangshing & Parmendra P. Dabral, 2018. "Multivariate Frequency Analysis of Meteorological Drought Using Copula," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1741-1758, March.
    2. Panagiotis Angelidis & Fotios Maris & Nikos Kotsovinos & Vlassios Hrissanthou, 2012. "Computation of Drought Index SPI with Alternative Distribution Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(9), pages 2453-2473, July.
    3. Fadhilah Yusof & Foo Hui-Mean & Jamaludin Suhaila & Zulkifli Yusof, 2013. "Characterisation of Drought Properties with Bivariate Copula Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(12), pages 4183-4207, September.
    4. Abolfazl Mosaedi & Hamid Zare Abyaneh & Mohammad Ghabaei Sough & S. Samadi, 2015. "Quantifying Changes in Reconnaissance Drought Index using Equiprobability Transformation Function," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2451-2469, June.
    5. Jenq-Tzong Shiau & Jia-Wei Lin, 2016. "Clustering Quantile Regression-Based Drought Trends in Taiwan," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(3), pages 1053-1069, February.
    6. Abdelaaziz Merabti & Mohamed Meddi & Diogo S. Martins & Luis S. Pereira, 2018. "Comparing SPI and RDI Applied at Local Scale as Influenced by Climate," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(3), pages 1071-1085, February.
    7. George Tsakiris & Nikos Kordalis & Dimitris Tigkas & Vasileios Tsakiris & Harris Vangelis, 2016. "Analysing Drought Severity and Areal Extent by 2D Archimedean Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5723-5735, December.
    8. Dunxian She & Jun Xia, 2018. "Copulas-Based Drought Characteristics Analysis and Risk Assessment across the Loess Plateau of China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(2), pages 547-564, January.
    9. Ziqiang Xing & Denghua Yan & Cheng Zhang & Gang Wang & Dongdong Zhang, 2015. "Spatial Characterization and Bivariate Frequency Analysis of Precipitation and Runoff in the Upper Huai River Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3291-3304, July.
    10. Fatih Tosunoglu & Ibrahim Can, 2016. "Application of copulas for regional bivariate frequency analysis of meteorological droughts in Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 1457-1477, July.
    11. Mohammad Amin Asadi Zarch, 2022. "Past and Future Global Drought Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(13), pages 5259-5276, October.
    12. Rina Wu & Jiquan Zhang & Yuhai Bao & Enliang Guo, 2019. "Run Theory and Copula-Based Drought Risk Analysis for Songnen Grassland in Northeastern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-17, October.
    13. L. Vergni & F. Todisco & F. Mannocchi, 2015. "Analysis of agricultural drought characteristics through a two-dimensional copula," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2819-2835, June.
    14. Alireza Shokoohi & Reza Morovati, 2015. "Basinwide Comparison of RDI and SPI Within an IWRM Framework," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 2011-2026, April.
    15. G. Buttafuoco & T. Caloiero & R. Coscarelli, 2015. "Analyses of Drought Events in Calabria (Southern Italy) Using Standardized Precipitation Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 557-573, January.
    16. Muhammad Imran Khan & Dong Liu & Qiang Fu & Qaisar Saddique & Muhammad Abrar Faiz & Tianxiao Li & Muhammad Uzair Qamar & Song Cui & Chen Cheng, 2017. "Projected Changes of Future Extreme Drought Events under Numerous Drought Indices in the Heilongjiang Province of China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(12), pages 3921-3937, September.
    17. Srimanta Ghosh & K. Srinivasan, 2016. "Analysis of Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Regional Frequency of Droughts in the Southern Peninsula of India," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(11), pages 3879-3898, September.
    18. Julius Fabian & Emir Zelenhasic, 2016. "Modelling of Meteo-Droughts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(9), pages 3229-3246, July.
    19. Neda Khanmohammadi & Hossein Rezaie & Javad Behmanesh, 2022. "Investigation of Drought Trend on the Basis of the Best Obtained Drought Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1355-1375, March.
    20. Seyed Banimahd & Davar Khalili, 2013. "Factors Influencing Markov Chains Predictability Characteristics, Utilizing SPI, RDI, EDI and SPEI Drought Indices in Different Climatic Zones," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(11), pages 3911-3928, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:26:y:2012:i:11:p:3301-3327. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.