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Drought Monitoring Using the Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI)

Author

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  • Javad Bazrafshan
  • Somayeh Hejabi
  • Jaber Rahimi

Abstract

One major characteristic of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is its flexibility to be calculated in a variety of time scales and hence being aware of different types of droughts. However, various time scales may result in confusion of the water resources’ researchers, decision makers and users in identifying and specifying drought periods in a certain region. To solve this problem in this article, a multivariate approach has been utilized having the ability to aggregate a variety of the SPI time series into a new time series called the Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI). The MSPI is based on the principal components analysis (PCA) of the SPI time series in a certain location. Having specified the first principal component’s (PC 1 ’s) scores, the MSPI would be simply attained by dividing PC 1 ’s values by the monthly standard deviation. In this article, MSPI’s capability in depicting the variability of the SPI time series (in five ranges of time scales, including 3–6, 6–12, 3–12, 12–24, and 24–48 months) was studied at four weather stations representing the four different climates in Iran from the driest to the wettest climates. The results showed that the PC 1 is able to justify more than 74 % of the variability for the selected sets of the SPI time scales in the studied climates. Also, it became clear that the drought and wet severity classes monitored by MSPIs matched very satisfyingly to those of the five sets of the SPI time scales. Therefore, in cases where the aggregation time scales for calculating the SPI are not previously known, this study recommends the researchers use the MSPI. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

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  • Javad Bazrafshan & Somayeh Hejabi & Jaber Rahimi, 2014. "Drought Monitoring Using the Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(4), pages 1045-1060, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:28:y:2014:i:4:p:1045-1060
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0533-2
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    1. Ana Paulo & Luis Pereira, 2008. "Stochastic Prediction of Drought Class Transitions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(9), pages 1277-1296, September.
    2. Ana Paulo & Luis Pereira, 2007. "Prediction of SPI Drought Class Transitions Using Markov Chains," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(10), pages 1813-1827, October.
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    7. Tayeb Raziei & Isabella Bordi & Luis Pereira, 2013. "Regional Drought Modes in Iran Using the SPI: The Effect of Time Scale and Spatial Resolution," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(6), pages 1661-1674, April.
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    11. Sergio Vicente-Serrano, 2006. "Differences in Spatial Patterns of Drought on Different Time Scales: An Analysis of the Iberian Peninsula," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(1), pages 37-60, February.
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    1. Jin Huang & Shanlei Sun & Yan Xue & Jinjian Li & Jinchi Zhang, 2014. "Spatial and Temporal Variability of Precipitation and Dryness/Wetness During 1961–2008 in Sichuan Province, West China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(6), pages 1655-1670, April.
    2. Zahra Fahimirad & Nazanin Shahkarami, 2021. "The Impact of Climate Change on Hydro-Meteorological Droughts Using Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 3969-3993, September.
    3. Zulfiqar Ali & Ijaz Hussain & Muhammad Faisal & Dost Muhammad Khan & Rizwan Niaz & Elsayed Elsherbini Elashkar & Alaa Mohamd Shoukry, 2020. "Propagation of the Multi-Scalar Aggregative Standardized Precipitation Temperature Index and its Application," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(2), pages 699-714, January.
    4. Alireza Shokoohi & Reza Morovati, 2015. "Basinwide Comparison of RDI and SPI Within an IWRM Framework," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 2011-2026, April.
    5. Majid Kazemzadeh & Arash Malekian, 2016. "Spatial characteristics and temporal trends of meteorological and hydrological droughts in northwestern Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(1), pages 191-210, January.
    6. Jincai Zhao & Qianqian Liu & Heli Lu & Zheng Wang & Ke Zhang & Pan Wang, 2021. "Future droughts in China using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) under multi-spatial scales," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 615-636, October.
    7. Qiang Zhang & Tianyao Qi & Vijay Singh & Yongqin Chen & Mingzhong Xiao, 2015. "Regional Frequency Analysis of Droughts in China: A Multivariate Perspective," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 1767-1787, April.
    8. Ihsan F. Hasan & Rozi Abdullah, 2023. "Multivariate index for monitoring drought (case study, Northeastern of Iraq)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3817-3837, April.
    9. Javad Bazrafshan & Mehdi Nadi & Khalil Ghorbani, 2015. "Comparison of Empirical Copula-Based Joint Deficit Index (JDI) and Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI) for Drought Monitoring in Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 2027-2044, April.
    10. Mohammad Ghadami & Tayeb Raziei & Mohsen Amini & Reza Modarres, 2020. "Regionalization of drought severity–duration index across Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 2813-2827, September.
    11. Zhenya Li & Zulfiqar Ali & Tong Cui & Sadia Qamar & Muhammad Ismail & Amna Nazeer & Muhammad Faisal, 2022. "A comparative analysis of pre- and post-industrial spatiotemporal drought trends and patterns of Tibet Plateau using Sen slope estimator and steady-state probabilities of Markov Chain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(1), pages 547-576, August.
    12. Omvir Singh & Divya Saini & Pankaj Bhardwaj, 2021. "Characterization of meteorological drought over a dryland ecosystem in north western India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 785-826, October.
    13. Elizabeth A. Mack & Richard A. Marcantonio & Erin Bunting & Amanda Ross & Andrew Zimmer & Leo C. Zulu & Edna Liliana Gómez Fernández & Jay Herndon & Geoffrey M. Henebry, 2022. "A Systematic Literature Review of Quantitative Studies Assessing the Relationship between Water and Conflict on the African Continent," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-20, November.
    14. Zulfiqar Ali & Asad Ellahi & Ijaz Hussain & Amna Nazeer & Sadia Qamar & Guangheng Ni & Muhammad Faisal, 2021. "Reduction of Errors in Hydrological Drought Monitoring – A Novel Statistical Framework for Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Drought," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(13), pages 4363-4380, October.
    15. Ayşegül Kuzucu & Gülay Onuşluel Gül, 2023. "Analysis of Drought Dynamics over Annual Maximum Drought Severity Series Based on Daily Index Definitions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(3), pages 1421-1436, February.

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