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Factors Influencing Markov Chains Predictability Characteristics, Utilizing SPI, RDI, EDI and SPEI Drought Indices in Different Climatic Zones

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  • Seyed Banimahd
  • Davar Khalili

Abstract

Comparability analyses were carried out to investigate behavioural aspects of effective drought index (EDI), standardized precipitation index (SPI), reconnaissance drought index (RDI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), considering 3-month, 6-month and annual time periods. Investigations included parametric/non-parametric correlation analysis among indices, climatic zone influence, record length impacts and evapotranspiration role (RDI and SPEI) on Markov chains predictability characteristics. Except for the EDI, all indices/cases (all climatic zones) showed significant correlation. In arid/semi-arid climates, the 3-month and 6-month maximum drought severities were detected by the RDI and annual maximum drought severities were detected by the SPEI, emphasizing the evapotranspiration influence. In all climatic zones, the EDI values for wet (dry) periods were higher (lower), compared to other indices. First order dependency was detected for the EDI (all cases) and the SPI (most cases), over entire period (1951–2011) and sub-periods [(1951–1981), (1982–2011)]. The largest number of second order dependency was detected by the SPEI, followed by a relatively large number of such cases by the RDI (3-month time period), for the 61-year data period. This research showed that several factors influence Markov chains predictability characteristics in drought studies, particularly the impact of record length and evapotranspiration (RDI and SPEI) were confirmed. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

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  • Seyed Banimahd & Davar Khalili, 2013. "Factors Influencing Markov Chains Predictability Characteristics, Utilizing SPI, RDI, EDI and SPEI Drought Indices in Different Climatic Zones," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(11), pages 3911-3928, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:11:p:3911-3928
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-013-0387-z
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    2. Muhammad Imran Khan & Dong Liu & Qiang Fu & Qaisar Saddique & Muhammad Abrar Faiz & Tianxiao Li & Muhammad Uzair Qamar & Song Cui & Chen Cheng, 2017. "Projected Changes of Future Extreme Drought Events under Numerous Drought Indices in the Heilongjiang Province of China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(12), pages 3921-3937, September.
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    6. Abolfazl Mosaedi & Hamid Zare Abyaneh & Mohammad Ghabaei Sough & S. Samadi, 2015. "Quantifying Changes in Reconnaissance Drought Index using Equiprobability Transformation Function," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2451-2469, June.
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    13. Yue Zhang & Kai Huang & Yajuan Yu & Tingting Hu & Jing Wei, 2015. "Impact of climate change and drought regime on water footprint of crop production: the case of Lake Dianchi Basin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(1), pages 549-566, October.
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    17. Ruqayah Mohammed & Miklas Scholz, 2019. "Climate Variability Impact on the Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Drought and Aridityin Arid and Semi-Arid Regions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(15), pages 5015-5033, December.
    18. Abdol Rassoul Zarei & Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi & Ali Shabani, 2021. "Using the Fuzzy Clustering and Principle Component Analysis for Assessing the Impact of Potential Evapotranspiration Calculation Method On the Modified RDI Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(11), pages 3679-3702, September.
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