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Estimating the trip generation impacts of autonomous vehicles on car travel in Victoria, Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Long T. Truong

    (Monash University)

  • Chris Gruyter

    (Monash University)

  • Graham Currie

    (Monash University)

  • Alexa Delbosc

    (Monash University)

Abstract

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) potentially increase vehicle travel by reducing travel and parking costs and by providing improved mobility to those who are too young to drive or older people. The increase in vehicle travel could be generated by both trip diversion from other modes and entirely new trips. Existing studies however tend to overlook AVs’ impacts on entirely new trips. There is a need to develop a methodology for estimating possible impacts of AVs on entirely new trips across all age groups. This paper explores the impacts of AVs on car trips using a case study of Victoria, Australia. A new methodology for estimating entirely new trips associated with AVs is proposed by measuring gaps in travel need at different life stages. Results show that AVs would increase daily trips by 4.14% on average. The 76+ age group would have the largest increase of 18.5%, followed by the 18–24 age group and the 12–17 age group with 14.6 and 11.1% respectively. If car occupancy remains constant in AV scenarios, entirely new trips and trip diversions from public transport and active modes would lead to a 7.31% increase in car trips. However increases in car travel are substantially magnified by reduced car occupancy rates, a trend evidenced throughout the world. Car occupancy would need to increase by at least 5.3–7.3% to keep car trips unchanged in AV scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Long T. Truong & Chris Gruyter & Graham Currie & Alexa Delbosc, 2017. "Estimating the trip generation impacts of autonomous vehicles on car travel in Victoria, Australia," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(6), pages 1279-1292, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:44:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1007_s11116-017-9802-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-017-9802-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    10. Gaurav Vyas & Pooneh Famili & Peter Vovsha & Daniel Fay & Ashish Kulshrestha & Greg Giaimo & Rebekah Anderson, 2019. "Incorporating features of autonomous vehicles in activity-based travel demand model for Columbus, OH," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(6), pages 2081-2102, December.
    11. Alejandro Tirachini, 2020. "Ride-hailing, travel behaviour and sustainable mobility: an international review," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 2011-2047, August.
    12. Marc-Olivier Pepin & Georges A. Tanguay, 2019. "Estimation of Car Trips Generated by the Arrival of Autonomous Vehicles in the Montreal Metropolitan Area," CIRANO Working Papers 2019s-17, CIRANO.
    13. Becker, Henrik & Becker, Felix & Abe, Ryosuke & Bekhor, Shlomo & Belgiawan, Prawira F. & Compostella, Junia & Frazzoli, Emilio & Fulton, Lewis M. & Guggisberg Bicudo, Davi & Murthy Gurumurthy, Krishna, 2020. "Impact of vehicle automation and electric propulsion on production costs for mobility services worldwide," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 105-126.
    14. Hensher, David A., 2018. "Tackling road congestion – What might it look like in the future under a collaborative and connected mobility model?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-8.
    15. Ahmed, Tanjeeb & Hyland, Michael & Sarma, Navjyoth J.S. & Mitra, Suman & Ghaffar, Arash, 2020. "Quantifying the employment accessibility benefits of shared automated vehicle mobility services: Consumer welfare approach using logsums," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 221-247.
    16. Kaddoura, Ihab & Bischoff, Joschka & Nagel, Kai, 2020. "Towards welfare optimal operation of innovative mobility concepts: External cost pricing in a world of shared autonomous vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 48-63.
    17. Rubén Cordera & Soledad Nogués & Esther González-González & José Luis Moura, 2021. "Modeling the Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Land Use Using a LUTI Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-16, February.
    18. Devajyoti Deka, 2024. "An In-Depth Look at the Trip-Deprived People of the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-24, July.
    19. Nadafianshahamabadi, Razieh & Tayarani, Mohammad & Rowangould, Gregory, 2021. "A closer look at urban development under the emergence of autonomous vehicles: Traffic, land use and air quality impacts," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    20. Talebian, Ahmadreza & Mishra, Sabyasachee, 2022. "Unfolding the state of the adoption of connected autonomous trucks by the commercial fleet owner industry," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    21. Kim, Sung Hoo & Circella, Giovanni & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 2019. "Identifying latent mode-use propensity segments in an all-AV era," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 192-207.
    22. Sarri, Paraskevi & Kaparias, Ioannis & Preston, John & Simmonds, David, 2023. "Using Land Use and Transportation Interaction (LUTI) models to determine land use effects from new vehicle transportation technologies; a regional scale of analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 91-111.
    23. Marletto, Gerardo, 2019. "Who will drive the transition to self-driving? A socio-technical analysis of the future impact of automated vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 221-234.
    24. Scott Kaplan & Ben Gordon & Feras El Zarwi & Joan L. Walker & David Zilberman, 2019. "The Future of Autonomous Vehicles: Lessons from the Literature on Technology Adoption," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(4), pages 583-597, December.
    25. Alejandro Tirachini & Andres Gomez-Lobo, 2017. "Estabilidad Macroeconómica y Crecimiento Económico: Mitos y Realidades," Working Papers wp457, University of Chile, Department of Economics.

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