IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/transp/v44y2017i6d10.1007_s11116-017-9802-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the trip generation impacts of autonomous vehicles on car travel in Victoria, Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Long T. Truong

    (Monash University)

  • Chris Gruyter

    (Monash University)

  • Graham Currie

    (Monash University)

  • Alexa Delbosc

    (Monash University)

Abstract

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) potentially increase vehicle travel by reducing travel and parking costs and by providing improved mobility to those who are too young to drive or older people. The increase in vehicle travel could be generated by both trip diversion from other modes and entirely new trips. Existing studies however tend to overlook AVs’ impacts on entirely new trips. There is a need to develop a methodology for estimating possible impacts of AVs on entirely new trips across all age groups. This paper explores the impacts of AVs on car trips using a case study of Victoria, Australia. A new methodology for estimating entirely new trips associated with AVs is proposed by measuring gaps in travel need at different life stages. Results show that AVs would increase daily trips by 4.14% on average. The 76+ age group would have the largest increase of 18.5%, followed by the 18–24 age group and the 12–17 age group with 14.6 and 11.1% respectively. If car occupancy remains constant in AV scenarios, entirely new trips and trip diversions from public transport and active modes would lead to a 7.31% increase in car trips. However increases in car travel are substantially magnified by reduced car occupancy rates, a trend evidenced throughout the world. Car occupancy would need to increase by at least 5.3–7.3% to keep car trips unchanged in AV scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Long T. Truong & Chris Gruyter & Graham Currie & Alexa Delbosc, 2017. "Estimating the trip generation impacts of autonomous vehicles on car travel in Victoria, Australia," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(6), pages 1279-1292, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:44:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1007_s11116-017-9802-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-017-9802-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11116-017-9802-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11116-017-9802-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Levinson, 2015. "Climbing Mount Next: The Effects of Autonomous Vehicles on Society," Working Papers 000139, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    2. Jeffery B. Greenblatt & Samveg Saxena, 2015. "Autonomous taxis could greatly reduce greenhouse-gas emissions of US light-duty vehicles," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(9), pages 860-863, September.
    3. Liang, Xiao & Correia, Gonçalo Homem de Almeida & van Arem, Bart, 2016. "Optimizing the service area and trip selection of an electric automated taxi system used for the last mile of train trips," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 115-129.
    4. Wadud, Zia & MacKenzie, Don & Leiby, Paul, 2016. "Help or hindrance? The travel, energy and carbon impacts of highly automated vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-18.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed, Tanjeeb & Hyland, Michael & Sarma, Navjyoth J.S. & Mitra, Suman & Ghaffar, Arash, 2020. "Quantifying the employment accessibility benefits of shared automated vehicle mobility services: Consumer welfare approach using logsums," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 221-247.
    2. Devajyoti Deka, 2024. "An In-Depth Look at the Trip-Deprived People of the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-24, July.
    3. Nadafianshahamabadi, Razieh & Tayarani, Mohammad & Rowangould, Gregory, 2021. "A closer look at urban development under the emergence of autonomous vehicles: Traffic, land use and air quality impacts," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    4. Talebian, Ahmadreza & Mishra, Sabyasachee, 2022. "Unfolding the state of the adoption of connected autonomous trucks by the commercial fleet owner industry," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    5. Kassens-Noor, Eva & Dake, Dana & Decaminada, Travis & Kotval-K, Zeenat & Qu, Teresa & Wilson, Mark & Pentland, Brian, 2020. "Sociomobility of the 21st century: Autonomous vehicles, planning, and the future city," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 329-335.
    6. Gaurav Vyas & Pooneh Famili & Peter Vovsha & Daniel Fay & Ashish Kulshrestha & Greg Giaimo & Rebekah Anderson, 2019. "Incorporating features of autonomous vehicles in activity-based travel demand model for Columbus, OH," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(6), pages 2081-2102, December.
    7. L. Samková, 2023. "Management of integrated passenger transport system and its role in tourism development," Economics Working Papers 2023-03, University of South Bohemia in Ceske Budejovice, Faculty of Economics.
    8. Sarri, Paraskevi & Kaparias, Ioannis & Preston, John & Simmonds, David, 2023. "Using Land Use and Transportation Interaction (LUTI) models to determine land use effects from new vehicle transportation technologies; a regional scale of analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 91-111.
    9. Marletto, Gerardo, 2019. "Who will drive the transition to self-driving? A socio-technical analysis of the future impact of automated vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 221-234.
    10. Kaddoura, Ihab & Bischoff, Joschka & Nagel, Kai, 2020. "Towards welfare optimal operation of innovative mobility concepts: External cost pricing in a world of shared autonomous vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 48-63.
    11. Kim, Sung Hoo & Circella, Giovanni & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 2019. "Identifying latent mode-use propensity segments in an all-AV era," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 192-207.
    12. Pernestål Brenden , Anna & Kristoffersson , Ida, 2018. "Effects of driverless vehicles: A review of simulations," Working papers in Transport Economics 2018:11, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    13. Raj, Alok & Kumar, J. Ajith & Bansal, Prateek, 2020. "A multicriteria decision making approach to study barriers to the adoption of autonomous vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 122-137.
    14. Jiang, Ying & Guo, Zijian & Zhang, Runsen & Zong, Weiyan & Zhang, Junyi, 2023. "How do expected changes in life affect young people's stated ownership of privately-owned autonomous vehicles: A comparative study," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 71-81.
    15. Rubén Cordera & Soledad Nogués & Esther González-González & José Luis Moura, 2021. "Modeling the Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Land Use Using a LUTI Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-16, February.
    16. Dannemiller, Katherine A. & Mondal, Aupal & Asmussen, Katherine E. & Bhat, Chandra R., 2021. "Investigating autonomous vehicle impacts on individual activity-travel behavior," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 402-422.
    17. Alejandro Tirachini, 2020. "Ride-hailing, travel behaviour and sustainable mobility: an international review," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 2011-2047, August.
    18. Dilshad Mohammed & Balázs Horváth, 2023. "Travel Demand Increment Due to the Use of Autonomous Vehicles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, June.
    19. Yilun Chen & Nirajan Shiwakoti & Peter Stasinopoulos & Shah Khalid Khan, 2022. "State-of-the-Art of Factors Affecting the Adoption of Automated Vehicles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-29, May.
    20. Marc-Olivier Pepin & Georges A. Tanguay, 2019. "Estimation of Car Trips Generated by the Arrival of Autonomous Vehicles in the Montreal Metropolitan Area," CIRANO Working Papers 2019s-17, CIRANO.
    21. Félix Carreyre & Nicolas Coulombel & Jaâfar Berrada & Laurent Bouillaut, 2022. "Economic evaluation of autonomous passenger transportation services: a systematic review and meta-analysis of simulation studies," Revue d'économie industrielle, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(2), pages 89-138.
    22. Becker, Henrik & Becker, Felix & Abe, Ryosuke & Bekhor, Shlomo & Belgiawan, Prawira F. & Compostella, Junia & Frazzoli, Emilio & Fulton, Lewis M. & Guggisberg Bicudo, Davi & Murthy Gurumurthy, Krishna, 2020. "Impact of vehicle automation and electric propulsion on production costs for mobility services worldwide," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 105-126.
    23. Scott Kaplan & Ben Gordon & Feras El Zarwi & Joan L. Walker & David Zilberman, 2019. "The Future of Autonomous Vehicles: Lessons from the Literature on Technology Adoption," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(4), pages 583-597, December.
    24. Hensher, David A., 2018. "Tackling road congestion – What might it look like in the future under a collaborative and connected mobility model?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-8.
    25. Alejandro Tirachini & Andres Gomez-Lobo, 2017. "Estabilidad Macroeconómica y Crecimiento Económico: Mitos y Realidades," Working Papers wp457, University of Chile, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qian, Lixian & Yin, Juelin & Huang, Youlin & Liang, Ya, 2023. "The role of values and ethics in influencing consumers’ intention to use autonomous vehicle hailing services," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    2. Jia Guo & Yusak Susilo & Constantinos Antoniou & Anna Pernestål Brenden, 2020. "Influence of Individual Perceptions on the Decision to Adopt Automated Bus Services," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-13, August.
    3. Johannes Morfeldt & Daniel J. A. Johansson, 2022. "Impacts of shared mobility on vehicle lifetimes and on the carbon footprint of electric vehicles," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Moneim Massar & Imran Reza & Syed Masiur Rahman & Sheikh Muhammad Habib Abdullah & Arshad Jamal & Fahad Saleh Al-Ismail, 2021. "Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Greenhouse Gas Emissions—Positive or Negative?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-23, May.
    5. Badia, Hugo & Jenelius, Erik, 2021. "Design and operation of feeder systems in the era of automated and electric buses," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 146-172.
    6. Roberto Battistini & Luca Mantecchini & Maria Nadia Postorino, 2020. "Users’ Acceptance of Connected and Automated Shuttles for Tourism Purposes: A Survey Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-17, December.
    7. Nuri C. Onat & Jafar Mandouri & Murat Kucukvar & Burak Sen & Saddam A. Abbasi & Wael Alhajyaseen & Adeeb A. Kutty & Rateb Jabbar & Marcello Contestabile & Abdel Magid Hamouda, 2023. "Rebound effects undermine carbon footprint reduction potential of autonomous electric vehicles," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    8. Hohenberger, Christoph & Spörrle, Matthias & Welpe, Isabell M., 2016. "How and why do men and women differ in their willingness to use automated cars? The influence of emotions across different age groups," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 374-385.
    9. Max Luke & Priyanshi Somani & Turner Cotterman & Dhruv Suri & Stephen J. Lee, 2020. "No COVID-19 Climate Silver Lining in the US Power Sector," Papers 2008.06660, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    10. Bin-Nun, Amitai Y. & Binamira, Isabel, 2020. "A framework for the impact of highly automated vehicles with limited operational design domains," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 174-188.
    11. Millard-Ball, Adam, 2019. "The autonomous vehicle parking problem," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 99-108.
    12. Anna Eliza Wolnowska & Lech Kasyk, 2022. "Transport Preferences of City Residents in the Context of Urban Mobility and Sustainable Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-32, August.
    13. Dirsehan, Taşkın & Can, Ceren, 2020. "Examination of trust and sustainability concerns in autonomous vehicle adoption," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    14. Sayarshad, Hamid R. & Chow, Joseph Y.J., 2017. "Non-myopic relocation of idle mobility-on-demand vehicles as a dynamic location-allocation-queueing problem," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 60-77.
    15. Marletto, Gerardo, 2019. "Who will drive the transition to self-driving? A socio-technical analysis of the future impact of automated vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 221-234.
    16. Gu, Yewen & Goez, Julio C. & Mario, Guajardo & Wallace, Stein W., 2019. "Autonomous vessels: State of the art and potential opportunities in logistics," Discussion Papers 2019/6, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    17. Scott B. Kelley & Bradley W. Lane & John M. DeCicco, 2019. "Pumping the Brakes on Robot Cars: Current Urban Traveler Willingness to Consider Driverless Vehicles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-15, September.
    18. Nunes, Ashley & Hernandez, Kristen D., 2020. "Autonomous taxis & public health: High cost or high opportunity cost?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 28-36.
    19. Mulrow, John & Derrible, Sybil & Samaras, Constantine, 2019. "Sociotechnical convex hulls and the evolution of transportation activity: A method and application to US travel survey data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    20. Akimoto, Keigo & Sano, Fuminori & Oda, Junichiro, 2022. "Impacts of ride and car-sharing associated with fully autonomous cars on global energy consumptions and carbon dioxide emissions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:44:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1007_s11116-017-9802-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.