IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transe/v158y2022ics136655452200014x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Unfolding the state of the adoption of connected autonomous trucks by the commercial fleet owner industry

Author

Listed:
  • Talebian, Ahmadreza
  • Mishra, Sabyasachee

Abstract

This paper attempts to address two particular questions about the adoption of connected autonomous trucks (CATs) by trucking companies: (i) what are the factors affecting the decisions to adopt different levels of autonomous trucks? and (ii) how many with what sizes are the groups of CAT adopters? We employ choice modeling and latent-class cluster analysis (LCCA) to address the two questions. US companies working in the freight industry are contacted and 400 full responses are collected. The data is analyzed descriptively and detailed results of modeling efforts are presented and discussed. Focusing on the first question, companies view automation Level 2 not significantly different than Regular trucks. We observe that small-sized companies are more likely to adopt the higher levels of automation, and large companies may be willing to adopt only when the technology become more affordable. Cargo type is found to have some impact on the adoption: for example, companies carrying foodstuff are more likely to adopt higher levels of automation. Having promoters of new technologies in the company increases the likelihood of adoption and the impact is more visible for the higher levels of automation. Turning to the second question, our results indicate that there could be five categories of CAT adopters which is consistent with what the Theory of diffusion of Innovations (DOI) suggests. However, the sizes of the Innovators and Early Majority classes would respectively be four and two times of DOI’s general suggestion. Overall, it is speculated that the CAT adopter distribution may not be a bell-shaped curve but more of a right-skewed figure. This can be contributed to explicit financial benefits of CATs which could incentivize companies to adopt earlier.

Suggested Citation

  • Talebian, Ahmadreza & Mishra, Sabyasachee, 2022. "Unfolding the state of the adoption of connected autonomous trucks by the commercial fleet owner industry," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:158:y:2022:i:c:s136655452200014x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2022.102616
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136655452200014X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tre.2022.102616?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Prateek Bansal & Kara M. Kockelman, 2018. "Are we ready to embrace connected and self-driving vehicles? A case study of Texans," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 641-675, March.
    2. van den Berg, Vincent A.C. & Verhoef, Erik T., 2016. "Autonomous cars and dynamic bottleneck congestion: The effects on capacity, value of time and preference heterogeneity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 43-60.
    3. Le Vine, Scott & Polak, John, 2016. "A novel peer-to-peer congestion pricing marketplace enabled by vehicle-automation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 483-494.
    4. Scott Le Vine & You Kong & Xiaobo Liu & John Polak, 2019. "Vehicle automation and freeway ‘pipeline’ capacity in the context of legal standards of care," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1215-1244, August.
    5. Hohenberger, Christoph & Spörrle, Matthias & Welpe, Isabell M., 2016. "How and why do men and women differ in their willingness to use automated cars? The influence of emotions across different age groups," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 374-385.
    6. Fagnant, Daniel J. & Kockelman, Kara, 2015. "Preparing a nation for autonomous vehicles: opportunities, barriers and policy recommendations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 167-181.
    7. Gurumurthy, Krishna Murthy & Kockelman, Kara M., 2020. "Modeling Americans’ autonomous vehicle preferences: A focus on dynamic ride-sharing, privacy & long-distance mode choices," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    8. Itf, 2015. "Automated and Autonomous Driving: Regulation under Uncertainty," International Transport Forum Policy Papers 7, OECD Publishing.
    9. Penmetsa, Praveena & Adanu, Emmanuel Kofi & Wood, Dustin & Wang, Teng & Jones, Steven L., 2019. "Perceptions and expectations of autonomous vehicles – A snapshot of vulnerable road user opinion," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 9-13.
    10. Wadud, Zia & MacKenzie, Don & Leiby, Paul, 2016. "Help or hindrance? The travel, energy and carbon impacts of highly automated vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-18.
    11. Pettigrew, Simone & Dana, Liyuwork Mitiku & Norman, Richard, 2019. "Clusters of potential autonomous vehicles users according to propensity to use individual versus shared vehicles," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 13-20.
    12. Bhattarai, Santosh & Golias, Mihalis M. & Mishra, Sabyasachee & Talebian, Ahmadreza, 2020. "Multidimensional resource allocation for freight transportation project planning and decision making," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 95-110.
    13. Simpson, Jesse R. & Mishra, Sabyasachee & Talebian, Ahmadreza & Golias, Mihalis M., 2019. "An estimation of the future adoption rate of autonomous trucks by freight organizations," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    14. Khan, Arshad M. & Manopichetwattana, Veerachai, 1989. "Models for distinguishing innovative and noninnovative small firms," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 187-196, May.
    15. Chen, Zhibin & He, Fang & Yin, Yafeng & Du, Yuchuan, 2017. "Optimal design of autonomous vehicle zones in transportation networks," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 44-61.
    16. Ramin Shabanpour & Ali Shamshiripour & Abolfazl Mohammadian, 2018. "Modeling adoption timing of autonomous vehicles: innovation diffusion approach," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(6), pages 1607-1621, November.
    17. Gilles Laurent & Raphaelle Lambert-Pandraud, 2010. "Why Do Older Consumers Buy Older Brands? The Role of Attachment and Declining Innovativeness," Post-Print hal-00528378, HAL.
    18. Coad, Alex & Segarra, Agustí & Teruel, Mercedes, 2016. "Innovation and firm growth: Does firm age play a role?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 387-400.
    19. McPherson, Michael A., 1996. "Growth of micro and small enterprises in southern Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 253-277, March.
    20. Long T. Truong & Chris Gruyter & Graham Currie & Alexa Delbosc, 2017. "Estimating the trip generation impacts of autonomous vehicles on car travel in Victoria, Australia," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(6), pages 1279-1292, November.
    21. Kishore Bhoopalam, A. & van den Berg, R. & Agatz, N.A.H. & Chorus, C.G., 2021. "The long road to automated trucking: Insights from driver focus groups," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2021-003-LIS, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    22. Jun Liu & Kara M. Kockelman & Patrick M. Boesch & Francesco Ciari, 2017. "Tracking a system of shared autonomous vehicles across the Austin, Texas network using agent-based simulation," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(6), pages 1261-1278, November.
    23. Loeb, Benjamin & Kockelman, Kara M., 2019. "Fleet performance and cost evaluation of a shared autonomous electric vehicle (SAEV) fleet: A case study for Austin, Texas," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 374-385.
    24. Paul Robson & Helen Haugh & Bernard Obeng, 2009. "Entrepreneurship and innovation in Ghana: enterprising Africa," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 331-350, March.
    25. Lingmont, Derek N.J. & Alexiou, Andreas, 2020. "The contingent effect of job automating technology awareness on perceived job insecurity: Exploring the moderating role of organizational culture," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    26. Vincent A.C. van den Berg & Erik T. Verhoef, 2015. "Robot Cars and Dynamic Bottleneck Congestion: The Effects on Capacity, Value of Time and Preference Heterogeneity," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-062/VIII, Tinbergen Institute, revised 11 Jul 2016.
    27. Bansal, Prateek & Kockelman, Kara M., 2017. "Forecasting Americans’ long-term adoption of connected and autonomous vehicle technologies," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-63.
    28. Arshad M. Khan & V. Manopichetwattana, 1989. "Innovative and Noninnovative Small Firms: Types and Characteristics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(5), pages 597-606, May.
    29. Elena Huergo & Jordi Jaumandreu, 2004. "How Does Probability of Innovation Change with Firm Age?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3_4), pages 193-207, April.
    30. Fritschy, Carolin & Spinler, Stefan, 2019. "The impact of autonomous trucks on business models in the automotive and logistics industry–a Delphi-based scenario study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    31. Kalra, Nidhi & Paddock, Susan M., 2016. "Driving to safety: How many miles of driving would it take to demonstrate autonomous vehicle reliability?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 182-193.
    32. W. Gibb Dyer Jr. & Wendy Handler, 1994. "Entrepreneurship and Family Business: Exploring the Connections," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 19(1), pages 71-83, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Schuster, Amy M. & Agrawal, Shubham & Britt, Noah & Sperry, Danielle & Van Fossen, Jenna A. & Wang, Sicheng & Mack, Elizabeth A. & Liberman, Jessica & Cotten, Shelia R., 2023. "Will automated vehicles solve the truck driver shortages? Perspectives from the trucking industry," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Sharma, Ishant & Mishra, Sabyasachee, 2022. "Quantifying the consumer’s dependence on different information sources on acceptance of autonomous vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 179-203.
    3. Dubey, Subodh & Sharma, Ishant & Mishra, Sabyasachee & Cats, Oded & Bansal, Prateek, 2022. "A General Framework to Forecast the Adoption of Novel Products: A Case of Autonomous Vehicles," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 63-95.
    4. Mishra, Sabyasachee & Sharma, Ishant & Pani, Agnivesh, 2023. "Analyzing autonomous delivery acceptance in food deserts based on shopping travel patterns," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    5. Ishant Sharma & Sabyasachee Mishra, 2023. "Ranking preferences towards adopting autonomous vehicles based on peer inputs and advertisements," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(6), pages 2139-2192, December.
    6. Liatsos, Vasileios & Golias, Mihalis & Hourdos, John & Mishra, Sabyasachee, 2024. "The capacitated hybrid truck platooning network design problem," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marletto, Gerardo, 2019. "Who will drive the transition to self-driving? A socio-technical analysis of the future impact of automated vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 221-234.
    2. Becker, Henrik & Becker, Felix & Abe, Ryosuke & Bekhor, Shlomo & Belgiawan, Prawira F. & Compostella, Junia & Frazzoli, Emilio & Fulton, Lewis M. & Guggisberg Bicudo, Davi & Murthy Gurumurthy, Krishna, 2020. "Impact of vehicle automation and electric propulsion on production costs for mobility services worldwide," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 105-126.
    3. Kassens-Noor, Eva & Dake, Dana & Decaminada, Travis & Kotval-K, Zeenat & Qu, Teresa & Wilson, Mark & Pentland, Brian, 2020. "Sociomobility of the 21st century: Autonomous vehicles, planning, and the future city," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 329-335.
    4. Shatanawi, Mohamad & Alatawneh, Anas & Mészáros, Ferenc, 2022. "Implications of static and dynamic road pricing strategies in the era of autonomous and shared autonomous vehicles using simulation-based dynamic traffic assignment: The case of Budapest," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    5. Luo, Qi & Saigal, Romesh & Chen, Zhibin & Yin, Yafeng, 2019. "Accelerating the adoption of automated vehicles by subsidies: A dynamic games approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 226-243.
    6. Huang, Yantao & Kockelman, Kara M. & Quarles, Neil, 2020. "How will self-driving vehicles affect U.S. megaregion traffic? The case of the Texas Triangle," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Dubey, Subodh & Sharma, Ishant & Mishra, Sabyasachee & Cats, Oded & Bansal, Prateek, 2022. "A General Framework to Forecast the Adoption of Novel Products: A Case of Autonomous Vehicles," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 63-95.
    8. Li, Dun & Huang, Youlin & Qian, Lixian, 2022. "Potential adoption of robotaxi service: The roles of perceived benefits to multiple stakeholders and environmental awareness," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 120-135.
    9. Liu, Zhaocai & Chen, Zhibin & He, Yi & Song, Ziqi, 2021. "Network user equilibrium problems with infrastructure-enabled autonomy," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 207-241.
    10. Manivasakan, Hesavar & Kalra, Riddhi & O'Hern, Steve & Fang, Yihai & Xi, Yinfei & Zheng, Nan, 2021. "Infrastructure requirement for autonomous vehicle integration for future urban and suburban roads – Current practice and a case study of Melbourne, Australia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 36-53.
    11. Mohamad Shatanawi & Mohammed Hajouj & Belal Edries & Ferenc Mészáros, 2022. "The Interrelationship between Road Pricing Acceptability and Self-Driving Vehicle Adoption: Insights from Four Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-32, October.
    12. McLeay, Fraser & Olya, Hossein & Liu, Hongfei & Jayawardhena, Chanaka & Dennis, Charles, 2022. "A multi-analytical approach to studying customers motivations to use innovative totally autonomous vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    13. Yu, Xiaojuan & van den Berg, Vincent A.C. & Verhoef, Erik T. & Li, Zhi-Chun, 2022. "Will all autonomous cars cooperate? Brands’ strategic interactions under dynamic congestion," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    14. Du, Manqing & Zhang, Tingru & Liu, Jinting & Xu, Zhigang & Liu, Peng, 2022. "Rumors in the air? Exploring public misconceptions about automated vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 237-252.
    15. Li, Shunxi & Sui, Pang-Chieh & Xiao, Jinsheng & Chahine, Richard, 2019. "Policy formulation for highly automated vehicles: Emerging importance, research frontiers and insights," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 573-586.
    16. Ljubi, Klara & Groznik, Aleš, 2023. "Role played by social factors and privacy concerns in autonomous vehicle adoption," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1-15.
    17. Xing, Yingying & Zhou, Huiyu & Han, Xiao & Zhang, Meng & Lu, Jian, 2022. "What influences vulnerable road users’ perceptions of autonomous vehicles? A comparative analysis of the 2017 and 2019 Pittsburgh surveys," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    18. Wang, Jian & Peeta, Srinivas & He, Xiaozheng, 2019. "Multiclass traffic assignment model for mixed traffic flow of human-driven vehicles and connected and autonomous vehicles," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 139-168.
    19. Wali, Behram & Santi, Paolo & Ratti, Carlo, 2023. "Are californians willing to use shared automated vehicles (SAV) & renounce existing vehicles? An empirical analysis of factors determining SAV use & household vehicle ownership," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    20. Zhang, Fang & Lu, Jian & Hu, Xiaojian, 2022. "Integrated path controlling and subsidy scheme for mobility and environmental management in automated transportation networks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:158:y:2022:i:c:s136655452200014x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600244/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.