IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v135y2023icp71-81.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How do expected changes in life affect young people's stated ownership of privately-owned autonomous vehicles: A comparative study

Author

Listed:
  • Jiang, Ying
  • Guo, Zijian
  • Zhang, Runsen
  • Zong, Weiyan
  • Zhang, Junyi

Abstract

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to bring various changes in people's lives. Such expected changes in life may affect people's decisions on the ownership of privately-owned AVs (PAVs) and even future travel demand structure. However, such effects remained unclear due to the lack of relevant studies. By targeting young people, this study fills this research gap by implementing a nation-wide expectation and stated preference (SP) survey in Japan, by comparing with older people. In the survey, respondents first reported their expected changes in life caused by AVs and then chose the most preferred vehicle from a choice set with three types of PAVs (conditional, high, and full automation) and a conventional car. The survey was implemented in 2016 and 3,006 valid SP responses were collected from 1,002 respondents (417 are young people). It is found that young people expected more changes in life and are more likely to choose PAVs with high and full automation than older people, which is consistent with the reported willingness-to-pay. By estimating a mixed logit model with panel data, it is revealed that expected changes in life affect the two age groups' choices of PAVs. There are more inconsistent influences of expected changes in life between the two groups than consistent influences, suggesting the presence of age-related structural differences of responses to future expectations. Diverse responses to future expectations are revealed, which policy implications are discussed. The findings support a life-oriented paradigm shift of travel behavior research and cross-sectoral transport policymaking and future sustainable society design.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Ying & Guo, Zijian & Zhang, Runsen & Zong, Weiyan & Zhang, Junyi, 2023. "How do expected changes in life affect young people's stated ownership of privately-owned autonomous vehicles: A comparative study," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 71-81.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:135:y:2023:i:c:p:71-81
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2023.03.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X23000677
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2023.03.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Millard-Ball, Adam, 2019. "The autonomous vehicle parking problem," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 99-108.
    2. Bussière, Yves D. & Madre, Jean-Loup & Tapia-Villarreal, Irving, 2019. "Will peak car observed in the North occur in the South? A demographic approach with case studies of Montreal, Lille, Juarez and Puebla," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 39-54.
    3. Tripat Gill & Eileen Fischer & Amna Kirmani & Pankaj Aggarwal, 2020. "Blame It on the Self-Driving Car: How Autonomous Vehicles Can Alter Consumer Morality [When Brands Seem Human, Do Humans Act like Brands? Automatic Behavioral Priming Effects of Brand Anthropomorph," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 272-291.
    4. Chan, Sewin & Stevens, Ann Huff, 2004. "Do changes in pension incentives affect retirement? A longitudinal study of subjective retirement expectations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1307-1333, July.
    5. Sarrias, Mauricio, 2020. "Individual-specific posterior distributions from Mixed Logit models: Properties, limitations and diagnostic checks," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    6. Xiaojian Hu & Nan Wu & Nuo Chen, 2021. "Young People’s Behavioral Intentions towards Low-Carbon Travel: Extending the Theory of Planned Behavior," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-15, February.
    7. Carrese, Stefano & Nigro, Marialisa & Patella, Sergio Maria & Toniolo, Eleonora, 2019. "A preliminary study of the potential impact of autonomous vehicles on residential location in Rome," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 55-61.
    8. Saeed, Tariq Usman & Burris, Mark W. & Labi, Samuel & Sinha, Kumares C., 2020. "An empirical discourse on forecasting the use of autonomous vehicles using consumers’ preferences," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    9. Krueger, Rico & Bierlaire, Michel & Daziano, Ricardo A. & Rashidi, Taha H. & Bansal, Prateek, 2021. "Evaluating the predictive abilities of mixed logit models with unobserved inter- and intra-individual heterogeneity," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    10. Daniel McFadden & Kenneth Train, 2000. "Mixed MNL models for discrete response," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 447-470.
    11. Woldeamanuel, Mintesnot & Nguyen, Dang, 2018. "Perceived benefits and concerns of autonomous vehicles: An exploratory study of millennials’ sentiments of an emerging market," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 44-53.
    12. Long T. Truong & Chris Gruyter & Graham Currie & Alexa Delbosc, 2017. "Estimating the trip generation impacts of autonomous vehicles on car travel in Victoria, Australia," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(6), pages 1279-1292, November.
    13. Klein, Nicholas J. & Smart, Michael J., 2017. "Millennials and car ownership: Less money, fewer cars," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 20-29.
    14. van der Klaauw, Wilbert & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 2008. "Social security and the retirement and savings behavior of low-income households," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 21-42, July.
    15. Cohen, Scott A. & Hopkins, Debbie, 2019. "Autonomous vehicles and the future of urban tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 33-42.
    16. Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2012. "On the Use of Expectations Data in Estimating Structural Dynamic Choice Models," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(3), pages 521-554.
    17. Patrick A. Singleton, 2019. "Discussing the “positive utilities” of autonomous vehicles: will travellers really use their time productively?," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 50-65, January.
    18. Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick & Haustein, Sonja, 2018. "On sceptics and enthusiasts: What are the expectations towards self-driving cars?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 49-55.
    19. Yap, Menno D. & Correia, Gonçalo & van Arem, Bart, 2016. "Preferences of travellers for using automated vehicles as last mile public transport of multimodal train trips," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-16.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guan, Jinping & Chen, Kexin & Mao, Runfei & Shamshiripour, Ali & Zhang, Xiaochun & Liang, Chen & Ben-Akiva, Moshe, 2024. "The willingness to pay for the automated vehicle subscription: Insights from a car-oriented population in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Dun & Huang, Youlin & Qian, Lixian, 2022. "Potential adoption of robotaxi service: The roles of perceived benefits to multiple stakeholders and environmental awareness," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 120-135.
    2. Faber, Koen & van Lierop, Dea, 2020. "How will older adults use automated vehicles? Assessing the role of AVs in overcoming perceived mobility barriers," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 353-363.
    3. Kassens-Noor, Eva & Dake, Dana & Decaminada, Travis & Kotval-K, Zeenat & Qu, Teresa & Wilson, Mark & Pentland, Brian, 2020. "Sociomobility of the 21st century: Autonomous vehicles, planning, and the future city," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 329-335.
    4. Ljubi, Klara & Groznik, Aleš, 2023. "Role played by social factors and privacy concerns in autonomous vehicle adoption," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1-15.
    5. Yu, Biying & Zhang, Junyi & Li, Xia, 2017. "Dynamic life course analysis on residential location choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 281-292.
    6. Yoganathan, Vignesh & Osburg, Victoria-Sophie, 2024. "Heterogenous evaluations of autonomous vehicle services: An extended theoretical framework and empirical evidence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    7. Kim, Sung Hoo & Circella, Giovanni & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 2019. "Identifying latent mode-use propensity segments in an all-AV era," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 192-207.
    8. Zhang, Junyi & Yu, Biying & Chikaraishi, Makoto, 2014. "Interdependences between household residential and car ownership behavior: a life history analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 165-174.
    9. Wu, Jingwen & Liao, Hua & Wang, Jin-Wei, 2020. "Analysis of consumer attitudes towards autonomous, connected, and electric vehicles: A survey in China," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    10. Lee, Jaehyung & Lee, Euntak & Yun, Jaewoong & Chung, Jin-Hyuk & Kim, Jinhee, 2021. "Latent heterogeneity in autonomous driving preferences and in-vehicle activities by travel distance," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    11. de Bresser, Jochem, 2019. "Measuring Subjective Survival Expectations : Do Response Scales Matter?," Other publications TiSEM 53bc2ec3-4126-4dfb-81f3-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Grant Miller & Aureo de Paula & Christine Valente, 2020. "Subjective Expectations and Demand for Contraception," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 20/724, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    13. Koşar, Gizem & Ransom, Tyler & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2022. "Understanding migration aversion using elicited counterfactual choice probabilities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 123-147.
    14. Basit Zafar, 2013. "College Major Choice and the Gender Gap," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 48(3), pages 545-595.
    15. Xiyuan Ren & Joseph Y. J. Chow & Prateek Bansal, 2023. "Estimating a k-modal nonparametric mixed logit model with market-level data," Papers 2309.13159, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    16. Pamela Giustinelli & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2024. "SeaTE: Subjective Ex Ante Treatment Effect of Health on Retirement," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 278-317, April.
    17. Ren, Xiyuan & Chow, Joseph Y.J., 2022. "A random-utility-consistent machine learning method to estimate agents’ joint activity scheduling choice from a ubiquitous data set," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 396-418.
    18. Poudel, Niranjan & Singleton, Patrick A., 2024. "Willingness to pay for changes in travel time and work time: A stated choice experiment of US commuters," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    19. Acharya, Sailesh & Mekker, Michelle, 2024. "Acceptance and demand of autonomous vehicles for long-distance recreational travel: An investigation based on a survey of visitors to US national parks," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    20. Yifan Gong & Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2020. "Perceived and actual option values of college enrollment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 940-959, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:135:y:2023:i:c:p:71-81. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.