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Vulnerability Reduction Needed to Maintain Current Burdens of Heat-Related Mortality in a Changing Climate—Magnitude and Determinants

Author

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  • Christofer Åström

    (Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, SE90187 Umeå, Sweden)

  • Daniel Oudin Åström

    (Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, SE90187 Umeå, Sweden
    Department of Clinical Sciences, Malmö, Lund University, Jan Waldenströms gata 35, SE21428 Malmö, Sweden)

  • Camilla Andersson

    (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Folkborgsvägen 17, SE60176 Norrköping, Sweden)

  • Kristie L. Ebi

    (School of Public Health, University of Washington, 4225 Roosevelt Way NE #100, Seattle, WA 98105, USA)

  • Bertil Forsberg

    (Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, SE90187 Umeå, Sweden)

Abstract

The health burden from heatwaves is expected to increase with rising global mean temperatures and more extreme heat events over the coming decades. Health-related effects from extreme heat are more common in elderly populations. The population of Europe is rapidly aging, which will increase the health effects of future temperatures. In this study, we estimate the magnitude of adaptation needed to lower vulnerability to heat in order to prevent an increase in heat-related deaths in the 2050s; this is the Adaptive Risk Reduction (ARR) needed. Temperature projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from 18 climate models were coupled with gridded population data and exposure-response relationships from a European multi-city study on heat-related mortality. In the 2050s, the ARR for the general population is 53.5%, based on temperature projections under RCP 4.5. For the population above 65 years in Southern Europe, the ARR is projected to be 45.9% in a future with an unchanged climate and 74.7% with climate change under RCP 4.5. The ARRs were higher under RCP 8.5. Whichever emission scenario is followed or population projection assumed, Europe will need to adapt to a great degree to maintain heat-related mortality at present levels, which are themselves unacceptably high, posing an even greater challenge.

Suggested Citation

  • Christofer Åström & Daniel Oudin Åström & Camilla Andersson & Kristie L. Ebi & Bertil Forsberg, 2017. "Vulnerability Reduction Needed to Maintain Current Burdens of Heat-Related Mortality in a Changing Climate—Magnitude and Determinants," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-10, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:14:y:2017:i:7:p:741-:d:103952
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alina Herrmann & Rainer Sauerborn, 2018. "General Practitioners’ Perceptions of Heat Health Impacts on the Elderly in the Face of Climate Change—A Qualitative Study in Baden-Württemberg, Germany," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, April.
    2. Jennifer Vanos & Gisel Guzman-Echavarria & Jane W. Baldwin & Coen Bongers & Kristie L. Ebi & Ollie Jay, 2023. "A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Nicola Banwell & Shannon Rutherford & Brendan Mackey & Cordia Chu, 2018. "Towards Improved Linkage of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Health: A Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, April.
    4. Guillaume Rohat, 2018. "Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, March.

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