IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0180369.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: A systematic literature review

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Sanderson
  • Katherine Arbuthnott
  • Sari Kovats
  • Shakoor Hajat
  • Pete Falloon

Abstract

Background and objectives: Heat related mortality is of great concern for public health, and estimates of future mortality under a warming climate are important for planning of resources and possible adaptation measures. Papers providing projections of future heat-related mortality were critically reviewed with a focus on the use of climate model data. Some best practice guidelines are proposed for future research. Methods: The electronic databases Web of Science and PubMed/Medline were searched for papers containing a quantitative estimate of future heat-related mortality. The search was limited to papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals up to the end of March 2017. Reference lists of relevant papers and the citing literature were also examined. The wide range of locations studied and climate data used prevented a meta-analysis. Results: A total of 608 articles were identified after removal of duplicate entries, of which 63 were found to contain a quantitative estimate of future mortality from hot days or heat waves. A wide range of mortality models and climate model data have been used to estimate future mortality. Temperatures in the climate simulations used in these studies were projected to increase. Consequently, all the papers indicated that mortality from high temperatures would increase under a warming climate. The spread in projections of future climate by models adds substantial uncertainty to estimates of future heat-related mortality. However, many studies either did not consider this source of uncertainty, or only used results from a small number of climate models. Other studies showed that uncertainty from changes in populations and demographics, and the methods for adaptation to warmer temperatures were at least as important as climate model uncertainty. Some inconsistencies in the use of climate data (for example, using global mean temperature changes instead of changes for specific locations) and interpretation of the effects on mortality were apparent. Some factors which have not been considered when estimating future mortality are summarised. Conclusions: Most studies have used climate data generated using scenarios with medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases. More estimates of future mortality using climate information from the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are needed, as this scenario is the only one under which the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C or less could be realised. Many of the methods used to combine modelled data with local climate observations are simplistic. Quantile-based methods might offer an improved approach, especially for temperatures at the ends of the distributions. The modelling of adaptation to warmer temperatures in mortality models is generally arbitrary and simplistic, and more research is needed to better quantify adaptation. Only a small number of studies included possible changes in population and demographics in their estimates of future mortality, meaning many estimates of mortality could be biased low. Uncertainty originating from establishing a mortality baseline, climate projections, adaptation and population changes is important and should be considered when estimating future mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Sanderson & Katherine Arbuthnott & Sari Kovats & Shakoor Hajat & Pete Falloon, 2017. "The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: A systematic literature review," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(7), pages 1-34, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0180369
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0180369
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0180369
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0180369&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0180369?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barreca, Alan I., 2012. "Climate change, humidity, and mortality in the United States," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-34.
    2. Keith W. Dixon & John R. Lanzante & Mary Jo Nath & Katharine Hayhoe & Anne Stoner & Aparna Radhakrishnan & V. Balaji & Carlos F. Gaitán, 2016. "Evaluating the stationarity assumption in statistically downscaled climate projections: is past performance an indicator of future results?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 395-408, April.
    3. Scott Sheridan & Cameron Lee & Michael Allen & Laurence Kalkstein, 2012. "Future heat vulnerability in California, Part I: projecting future weather types and heat events," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(2), pages 291-309, November.
    4. Elisaveta P. Petkova & Daniel A. Bader & G. Brooke Anderson & Radley M. Horton & Kim Knowlton & Patrick L. Kinney, 2014. "Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-13, October.
    5. Hajat, S. & Sheridan, S.C. & Allen, M.J. & Pascal, M. & Laaidi, K. & Yagouti, A. & Bickis, U. & Tobias, A. & Bourque, D. & Armstrong, B.G. & Kosatsky, T., 2010. "Heat-health warning systems: A comparison of the predictive capacity of different approaches to identifying dangerously hot days," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 100(6), pages 1137-1144.
    6. Knowlton, K. & Lynn, B. & Goldberg, R.A. & Rosenzweig, C. & Hogrefe, C. & Rosenthal, J.K. & Kinney, P.L., 2007. "Projecting heat-related mortality impacts under a changing climate in the New York City region," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 97(11), pages 2028-2034.
    7. Paul Watkiss & Alistair Hunt, 2012. "Projection of economic impacts of climate change in sectors of Europe based on bottom up analysis: human health," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(1), pages 101-126, May.
    8. L. Mearns & S. Sain & L. Leung & M. Bukovsky & S. McGinnis & S. Biner & D. Caya & R. Arritt & W. Gutowski & E. Takle & M. Snyder & R. Jones & A. Nunes & S. Tucker & D. Herzmann & L. McDaniel & L. Sloa, 2013. "Climate change projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 965-975, October.
    9. Dianne Lowe & Kristie L. Ebi & Bertil Forsberg, 2011. "Heatwave Early Warning Systems and Adaptation Advice to Reduce Human Health Consequences of Heatwaves," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-26, December.
    10. Scott Sheridan & Michael Allen & Cameron Lee & Laurence Kalkstein, 2012. "Future heat vulnerability in California, Part II: projecting future heat-related mortality," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(2), pages 311-326, November.
    11. Do-Woo Kim & Ravinesh Deo & Jea-Hak Chung & Jong-Seol Lee, 2016. "Projection of heat wave mortality related to climate change in Korea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(1), pages 623-637, January.
    12. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2011. "Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 152-185, October.
    13. Stefan Muthers & Andreas Matzarakis & Elisabeth Koch, 2010. "Climate Change and Mortality in Vienna—A Human Biometeorological Analysis Based on Regional Climate Modeling," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 7(7), pages 1-13, July.
    14. Simon Gosling & Glenn McGregor & Jason Lowe, 2012. "The benefits of quantifying climate model uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment: an example with heat-related mortality change estimates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 217-231, May.
    15. Simon Gosling & Jason Lowe & Glenn McGregor & Mark Pelling & Bruce Malamud, 2009. "Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 299-341, February.
    16. Elisaveta P. Petkova & Radley M. Horton & Daniel A. Bader & Patrick L. Kinney, 2013. "Projected Heat-Related Mortality in the U.S. Urban Northeast," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, December.
    17. Kate L. Bassil & Donald C. Cole, 2010. "Effectiveness of Public Health Interventions in Reducing Morbidity and Mortality during Heat Episodes: a Structured Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-11, March.
    18. Francesca K. De’ Donato & Michela Leone & Matteo Scortichini & Manuela De Sario & Klea Katsouyanni & Timo Lanki & Xavier Basagaña & Ferran Ballester & Christofer Åström & Anna Paldy & Mathilde Pascal , 2015. "Changes in the Effect of Heat on Mortality in the Last 20 Years in Nine European Cities. Results from the PHASE Project," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-17, December.
    19. Maud M. T. E. Huynen & Pim Martens, 2015. "Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands: A Scenario-Based Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-26, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elisaveta P. Petkova & Daniel A. Bader & G. Brooke Anderson & Radley M. Horton & Kim Knowlton & Patrick L. Kinney, 2014. "Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-13, October.
    2. W. J. W. Botzen & M. L. Martinius & P. Bröde & M. A. Folkerts & P. Ignjacevic & F. Estrada & C. N. Harmsen & H. A. M. Daanen, 2020. "Economic valuation of climate change–induced mortality: age dependent cold and heat mortality in the Netherlands," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 545-562, September.
    3. Gino D. Marinucci & George Luber & Christopher K. Uejio & Shubhayu Saha & Jeremy J. Hess, 2014. "Building Resilience against Climate Effects—A Novel Framework to Facilitate Climate Readiness in Public Health Agencies," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-26, June.
    4. Marko Korhonen & Suvi Kangasrääsiö & Rauli Svento, 2017. "Climate change and mortality: Evidence from 23 developed countries between 1960 and 2010," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 5107635, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    5. Xi Chen & Chih Ming Tan & Xiaobo Zhang & Xin Zhang, 2020. "The effects of prenatal exposure to temperature extremes on birth outcomes: the case of China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1263-1302, October.
    6. Elisaveta P. Petkova & Radley M. Horton & Daniel A. Bader & Patrick L. Kinney, 2013. "Projected Heat-Related Mortality in the U.S. Urban Northeast," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, December.
    7. Aleš Urban & Hana Hanzlíková & Jan Kyselý & Eva Plavcová, 2017. "Impacts of the 2015 Heat Waves on Mortality in the Czech Republic—A Comparison with Previous Heat Waves," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, December.
    8. Otrachshenko, Vladimir & Popova, Olga & Solomin, Pavel, 2018. "Misfortunes never come singly: Consecutive weather shocks and mortality in Russia," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 249-258.
    9. Jae Young Lee & Woo-Seop Lee & Kristie L. Ebi & Ho Kim, 2019. "Temperature-Related Summer Mortality Under Multiple Climate, Population, and Adaptation Scenarios," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-9, March.
    10. Chen, Xi & Tan, Chih Ming & Zhang, Xiaobo & Zhang, Xin, 2020. "The Effects of Prenatal Exposure to Temperature Extremes on Birth Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 12917, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Manuela Fritz, 2022. "Temperature and non‐communicable diseases: Evidence from Indonesia's primary health care system," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(11), pages 2445-2464, November.
    12. Junzhe Bao & Xudong Li & Chuanhua Yu, 2015. "The Construction and Validation of the Heat Vulnerability Index, a Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-15, June.
    13. Tahseen Ajaz & Muhammad Tariq Majeed, 2018. "Changing Climate Patterns and Women Health: An Empirical Analysis of District Rawalpindi Pakistan," Global Social Sciences Review, Humanity Only, vol. 3(4), pages 320-342, December.
    14. Joris Adriaan Frank Van Loenhout & Jose Manuel Rodriguez-Llanes & Debarati Guha-Sapir, 2016. "Stakeholders’ Perception on National Heatwave Plans and Their Local Implementation in Belgium and The Netherlands," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-14, November.
    15. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    16. Ziebarth, N. R. & Schmitt, M. & Karlsson, M., 2013. "The short-term population health effects of weather and pollution: implications of climate change," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 13/34, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    17. Fritz, Manuela, 2021. "Temperature and non-communicable diseases: Evidence from Indonesia's primary health care system," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-84-21, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    18. Otrachshenko, Vladimir & Popova, Olga & Solomin, Pavel, 2017. "Health Consequences of the Russian Weather," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 290-306.
    19. Hanlon, W. Walker & Hansen, Casper Worm & Kantor, Jake, 2021. "Temperature, Disease, and Death in London: Analyzing Weekly Data for the Century from 1866 to 1965," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(1), pages 40-80, March.
    20. Fariha Hasan & Shayan Marsia & Kajal Patel & Priyanka Agrawal & Junaid Abdul Razzak, 2021. "Effective Community-Based Interventions for the Prevention and Management of Heat-Related Illnesses: A Scoping Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-14, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0180369. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.