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Heat-Related Health Impacts under Scenarios of Climate and Population Change

Author

Listed:
  • Philip E. Morefield

    (Office of Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460, USA)

  • Neal Fann

    (Office of Air and Radiation, Office of Air Quality, Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, Durham, NC 27709, USA)

  • Anne Grambsch

    (Office of Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460, USA)

  • William Raich

    (Industrial Economics, Inc., Cambridge, MA 02140, USA)

  • Christopher P. Weaver

    (Office of Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460, USA)

Abstract

Recent assessments have found that a warming climate, with associated increases in extreme heat events, could profoundly affect human health. This paper describes a new modeling and analysis framework, built around the Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program—Community Edition (BenMAP), for estimating heat-related mortality as a function of changes in key factors that determine the health impacts of extreme heat. This new framework has the flexibility to integrate these factors within health risk assessments, and to sample across the uncertainties in them, to provide a more comprehensive picture of total health risk from climate-driven increases in extreme heat. We illustrate the framework’s potential with an updated set of projected heat-related mortality estimates for the United States. These projections combine downscaled Coupled Modeling Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5, using the new Locating and Selecting Scenarios Online (LASSO) tool to select the most relevant downscaled climate realizations for the study, with new population projections from EPA’s Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. Results suggest that future changes in climate could cause approximately from 3000 to more than 16,000 heat-related deaths nationally on an annual basis. This work demonstrates that uncertainties associated with both future population and future climate strongly influence projected heat-related mortality. This framework can be used to systematically evaluate the sensitivity of projected future heat-related mortality to the key driving factors and major sources of methodological uncertainty inherent in such calculations, improving the scientific foundations of risk-based assessments of climate change and human health.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip E. Morefield & Neal Fann & Anne Grambsch & William Raich & Christopher P. Weaver, 2018. "Heat-Related Health Impacts under Scenarios of Climate and Population Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-17, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:15:y:2018:i:11:p:2438-:d:179828
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mengmeng Li & Shaohua Gu & Peng Bi & Jun Yang & Qiyong Liu, 2015. "Heat Waves and Morbidity: Current Knowledge and Further Direction-A Comprehensive Literature Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-28, May.
    2. Brian C. O’Neill & Andrew Gettelman, 2018. "An introduction to the special issue on the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 277-285, February.
    3. Knowlton, K. & Lynn, B. & Goldberg, R.A. & Rosenzweig, C. & Hogrefe, C. & Rosenthal, J.K. & Kinney, P.L., 2007. "Projecting heat-related mortality impacts under a changing climate in the New York City region," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 97(11), pages 2028-2034.
    4. Brian C. O’Neill & James Done & Andrew Gettelman & Peter Lawrence & Flavio Lehner & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Lei Lin & Andrew Monaghan & Keith Oleson & Xiaolin Ren & Benjamin Sanderson & Claudia Tebal, 2018. "The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE): a synthesis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 287-301, February.
    5. Simon Gosling & Glenn McGregor & Jason Lowe, 2012. "The benefits of quantifying climate model uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment: an example with heat-related mortality change estimates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 217-231, May.
    6. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guanghui Yu & Feifan Wang & Jing Hu & Yan Liao & Xianzhao Liu, 2019. "Value Assessment of Health Losses Caused by PM 2.5 in Changsha City, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-21, June.

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