IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v11y2014i11p11371-11383d41835.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

Author

Listed:
  • Elisaveta P. Petkova

    (National Center for Disaster Preparedness, Earth Institute, Columbia University, Suite 303, 215 W. 125th Street, New York, NY 10027, USA)

  • Daniel A. Bader

    (Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA)

  • G. Brooke Anderson

    (Department of Environmental & Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University, 350 W. Lake Street, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA)

  • Radley M. Horton

    (Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA)

  • Kim Knowlton

    (Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th St., New York, NY 10032, USA
    Natural Resources Defense Council, 40 W. 20th Street, New York, NY 10011, USA)

  • Patrick L. Kinney

    (Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th St., New York, NY 10032, USA)

Abstract

Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • Elisaveta P. Petkova & Daniel A. Bader & G. Brooke Anderson & Radley M. Horton & Kim Knowlton & Patrick L. Kinney, 2014. "Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-13, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:11:y:2014:i:11:p:11371-11383:d:41835
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/11/11/11371/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/11/11/11371/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tiantian Li & Radley M. Horton & Patrick L. Kinney, 2013. "Projections of seasonal patterns in temperature- related deaths for Manhattan, New York," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 717-721, August.
    2. Scott Sheridan & Cameron Lee & Michael Allen & Laurence Kalkstein, 2012. "Future heat vulnerability in California, Part I: projecting future weather types and heat events," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(2), pages 291-309, November.
    3. Gasparrini, Antonio, 2011. "Distributed Lag Linear and Non-Linear Models in R: The Package dlnm," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 43(i08).
    4. Knowlton, K. & Lynn, B. & Goldberg, R.A. & Rosenzweig, C. & Hogrefe, C. & Rosenthal, J.K. & Kinney, P.L., 2007. "Projecting heat-related mortality impacts under a changing climate in the New York City region," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 97(11), pages 2028-2034.
    5. Elisaveta P. Petkova & Radley M. Horton & Daniel A. Bader & Patrick L. Kinney, 2013. "Projected Heat-Related Mortality in the U.S. Urban Northeast," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, December.
    6. Scott Sheridan & Michael Allen & Cameron Lee & Laurence Kalkstein, 2012. "Future heat vulnerability in California, Part II: projecting future heat-related mortality," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(2), pages 311-326, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Viniece Jennings & Cassandra Johnson Gaither, 2015. "Approaching Environmental Health Disparities and Green Spaces: An Ecosystem Services Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Jennifer Vanos & Gisel Guzman-Echavarria & Jane W. Baldwin & Coen Bongers & Kristie L. Ebi & Ollie Jay, 2023. "A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Lisbeth Weitensfelder & Hanns Moshammer, 2019. "Evidence of Adaptation to Increasing Temperatures," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Michael T. Schmeltz & Elisaveta P. Petkova & Janet L. Gamble, 2016. "Economic Burden of Hospitalizations for Heat-Related Illnesses in the United States, 2001–2010," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-11, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elisaveta P. Petkova & Radley M. Horton & Daniel A. Bader & Patrick L. Kinney, 2013. "Projected Heat-Related Mortality in the U.S. Urban Northeast," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Gino D. Marinucci & George Luber & Christopher K. Uejio & Shubhayu Saha & Jeremy J. Hess, 2014. "Building Resilience against Climate Effects—A Novel Framework to Facilitate Climate Readiness in Public Health Agencies," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-26, June.
    3. Jae Young Lee & Martin Röösli & Martina S. Ragettli, 2021. "Estimation of Heat-Attributable Mortality Using the Cross-Validated Best Temperature Metric in Switzerland and South Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-9, June.
    4. W. J. W. Botzen & M. L. Martinius & P. Bröde & M. A. Folkerts & P. Ignjacevic & F. Estrada & C. N. Harmsen & H. A. M. Daanen, 2020. "Economic valuation of climate change–induced mortality: age dependent cold and heat mortality in the Netherlands," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 545-562, September.
    5. Andrew M Fraser & Mikhail V Chester & David Eisenman & David M Hondula & Stephanie S Pincetl & Paul English & Emily Bondank, 2017. "Household accessibility to heat refuges: Residential air conditioning, public cooled space, and walkability," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 44(6), pages 1036-1055, November.
    6. Christofer Åström & Daniel Oudin Åström & Camilla Andersson & Kristie L. Ebi & Bertil Forsberg, 2017. "Vulnerability Reduction Needed to Maintain Current Burdens of Heat-Related Mortality in a Changing Climate—Magnitude and Determinants," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-10, July.
    7. Tao Liu & Weilin Zeng & Hualiang Lin & Shannon Rutherford & Jianpeng Xiao & Xing Li & Zhihao Li & Zhengmin Qian & Baixiang Feng & Wenjun Ma, 2016. "Tempo-Spatial Variations of Ambient Ozone-Mortality Associations in the USA: Results from the NMMAPS Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-14, August.
    8. Dholakia, Hem H. & Mishra, Vimal & Garg, Amit, 2015. "Predicted Increases in Heat related Mortality under Climate Change in Urban India," IIMA Working Papers WP2015-05-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    9. Michael T Schmeltz & Grace Sembajwe & Peter J Marcotullio & Jean A Grassman & David U Himmelstein & Stephanie Woolhandler, 2015. "Identifying Individual Risk Factors and Documenting the Pattern of Heat-Related Illness through Analyses of Hospitalization and Patterns of Household Cooling," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-15, March.
    10. Junzhe Bao & Xudong Li & Chuanhua Yu, 2015. "The Construction and Validation of the Heat Vulnerability Index, a Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-15, June.
    11. Kevin Riley & Holly Wilhalme & Linda Delp & David P. Eisenman, 2018. "Mortality and Morbidity during Extreme Heat Events and Prevalence of Outdoor Work: An Analysis of Community-Level Data from Los Angeles County, California," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-12, March.
    12. Martina S. Ragettli & Apolline Saucy & Benjamin Flückiger & Danielle Vienneau & Kees de Hoogh & Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera & Christian Schindler & Martin Röösli, 2023. "Explorative Assessment of the Temperature–Mortality Association to Support Health-Based Heat-Warning Thresholds: A National Case-Crossover Study in Switzerland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-16, March.
    13. Yunquan Zhang & Chuanhua Yu & Jin Yang & Lan Zhang & Fangfang Cui, 2017. "Diurnal Temperature Range in Relation to Daily Mortality and Years of Life Lost in Wuhan, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-11, August.
    14. Iara da Silva & Caroline Fernanda Hei Wikuats & Elizabeth Mie Hashimoto & Leila Droprinchinski Martins, 2022. "Effects of Environmental and Socioeconomic Inequalities on Health Outcomes: A Multi-Region Time-Series Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-22, December.
    15. Michael Tong & Berhanu Wondmagegn & Jianjun Xiang & Alana Hansen & Keith Dear & Dino Pisaniello & Blesson Varghese & Jianguo Xiao & Le Jian & Benjamin Scalley & Monika Nitschke & John Nairn & Hilary B, 2022. "Hospitalization Costs of Respiratory Diseases Attributable to Temperature in Australia and Projections for Future Costs in the 2030s and 2050s under Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-16, August.
    16. Kai Luo & Wenjing Li & Ruiming Zhang & Runkui Li & Qun Xu & Yang Cao, 2016. "Ambient Fine Particulate Matter Exposure and Risk of Cardiovascular Mortality: Adjustment of the Meteorological Factors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, November.
    17. Miller, Reid & Golab, Lukasz & Rosenberg, Catherine, 2017. "Modelling weather effects for impact analysis of residential time-of-use electricity pricing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 534-546.
    18. Yunfei Cheng & Tatiana Ermolieva & Gui-Ying Cao & Xiaoying Zheng, 2018. "Health Impacts of Exposure to Gaseous Pollutants and Particulate Matter in Beijing—A Non-Linear Analysis Based on the New Evidence," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-12, September.
    19. Malebo Sephule Makunyane & Hannes Rautenbach & Neville Sweijd & Joel Botai & Janine Wichmann, 2023. "Health Risks of Temperature Variability on Hospital Admissions in Cape Town, 2011–2016," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-18, January.
    20. Lee, Won Sang & Sohn, So Young, 2018. "Effects of standardization on the evolution of information and communications technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 308-317.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:11:y:2014:i:11:p:11371-11383:d:41835. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.