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Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

Author

Listed:
  • Elisaveta P. Petkova

    (National Center for Disaster Preparedness, Earth Institute, Columbia University, Suite 303, 215 W. 125th Street, New York, NY 10027, USA)

  • Daniel A. Bader

    (Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA)

  • G. Brooke Anderson

    (Department of Environmental & Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University, 350 W. Lake Street, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA)

  • Radley M. Horton

    (Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA)

  • Kim Knowlton

    (Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th St., New York, NY 10032, USA
    Natural Resources Defense Council, 40 W. 20th Street, New York, NY 10011, USA)

  • Patrick L. Kinney

    (Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th St., New York, NY 10032, USA)

Abstract

Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • Elisaveta P. Petkova & Daniel A. Bader & G. Brooke Anderson & Radley M. Horton & Kim Knowlton & Patrick L. Kinney, 2014. "Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-13, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:11:y:2014:i:11:p:11371-11383:d:41835
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tiantian Li & Radley M. Horton & Patrick L. Kinney, 2013. "Projections of seasonal patterns in temperature- related deaths for Manhattan, New York," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 717-721, August.
    2. Scott Sheridan & Cameron Lee & Michael Allen & Laurence Kalkstein, 2012. "Future heat vulnerability in California, Part I: projecting future weather types and heat events," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(2), pages 291-309, November.
    3. Gasparrini, Antonio, 2011. "Distributed Lag Linear and Non-Linear Models in R: The Package dlnm," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 43(i08).
    4. Knowlton, K. & Lynn, B. & Goldberg, R.A. & Rosenzweig, C. & Hogrefe, C. & Rosenthal, J.K. & Kinney, P.L., 2007. "Projecting heat-related mortality impacts under a changing climate in the New York City region," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 97(11), pages 2028-2034.
    5. Scott Sheridan & Michael Allen & Cameron Lee & Laurence Kalkstein, 2012. "Future heat vulnerability in California, Part II: projecting future heat-related mortality," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(2), pages 311-326, November.
    6. Elisaveta P. Petkova & Radley M. Horton & Daniel A. Bader & Patrick L. Kinney, 2013. "Projected Heat-Related Mortality in the U.S. Urban Northeast," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, December.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Lisbeth Weitensfelder & Hanns Moshammer, 2019. "Evidence of Adaptation to Increasing Temperatures," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Michael T. Schmeltz & Elisaveta P. Petkova & Janet L. Gamble, 2016. "Economic Burden of Hospitalizations for Heat-Related Illnesses in the United States, 2001–2010," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-11, September.

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