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The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

Author

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  • Richard H. Moss

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA)

  • Jae A. Edmonds

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA)

  • Kathy A. Hibbard

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA)

  • Martin R. Manning

    (New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington, New Zealand)

  • Steven K. Rose

    (Electric Power Research Institute, 2000 L Street NW, Suite 805, Washington DC 20036, USA)

  • Detlef P. van Vuuren

    (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Postbus 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands)

  • Timothy R. Carter

    (Finnish Environment Institute, Box 140, Mechelininkatu 34a, Helsinki 00251, Finland)

  • Seita Emori

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan)

  • Mikiko Kainuma

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan)

  • Tom Kram

    (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Postbus 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands)

  • Gerald A. Meehl

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA)

  • John F. B. Mitchell

    (Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK)

  • Nebojsa Nakicenovic

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
    Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13, A-1040 Vienna, Austria)

  • Keywan Riahi

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria)

  • Steven J. Smith

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA)

  • Ronald J. Stouffer

    (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey 08542, USA)

  • Allison M. Thomson

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA)

  • John P. Weyant

    (Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305, USA)

  • Thomas J. Wilbanks

    (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831, USA)

Abstract

Setting the scenes Climatologists use model-based 'scenarios' to provide plausible descriptions of how the future might unfold when evaluating uncertainty about the effects of human actions on climate. The traditional method of establishing these scenarios was a time-consuming sequential process, each discipline taking turns to add data and complexity. As Richard Moss and colleagues explain in a Perspectives review, climate change researchers have now established a new coordinated parallel process that integrates the tasks of developing scenarios, making projections and evaluating their impact. These 'next generation' scenarios should make for faster, more rigorous assessment of proposals for climate mitigation and adaptation.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:463:y:2010:i:7282:d:10.1038_nature08823
    DOI: 10.1038/nature08823
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