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Projecting heat-related mortality impacts under a changing climate in the New York City region

Author

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  • Knowlton, K.
  • Lynn, B.
  • Goldberg, R.A.
  • Rosenzweig, C.
  • Hogrefe, C.
  • Rosenthal, J.K.
  • Kinney, P.L.

Abstract

Objectives. We sought to project future impacts of climate change on summer heat-related premature deaths in the New York City metropolitan region. Methods. Current and future climates were simulated over the northeastern United States with a global-to-regional climate modeling system. Summer heat-related premature deaths in the 1990s and 2050s were estimated by using a range of scenarios and approaches to modeling acclimatization (e.g., increased use of air conditioning, gradual physiological adaptation). Results. Projected regional increases in heat-related premature mortality by the 2050s ranged from 47% to 95%, with a mean 70% increase compared with the 1990s. Acclimatization effects reduced regional increases in summer heat-related premature mortality by about 25%. Local impacts varied considerably across the region, with urban counties showing greater numbers of deaths and smaller percentage increases than less-urbanized counties. Conclusions. Although considerable uncertainty exists in climate forecasts and future health vulnerability, the range of projections we developed suggests that by midcentury, acclimatization may not completely mitigate the effects of climate change in the New York City metropolitan region, which would result in an overall net increase in heat-related premature mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Knowlton, K. & Lynn, B. & Goldberg, R.A. & Rosenzweig, C. & Hogrefe, C. & Rosenthal, J.K. & Kinney, P.L., 2007. "Projecting heat-related mortality impacts under a changing climate in the New York City region," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 97(11), pages 2028-2034.
    • Handle: RePEc:aph:ajpbhl:10.2105/ajph.2006.102947_7
    DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2006.102947
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    1. Jesse M. Keenan, 2018. "Regional resilience trust funds: an exploratory analysis for leveraging insurance surcharges," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 118-139, March.
    2. G. Brooke Anderson & Keith W. Oleson & Bryan Jones & Roger D. Peng, 2018. "Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 455-470, February.
    3. Michael T Schmeltz & Grace Sembajwe & Peter J Marcotullio & Jean A Grassman & David U Himmelstein & Stephanie Woolhandler, 2015. "Identifying Individual Risk Factors and Documenting the Pattern of Heat-Related Illness through Analyses of Hospitalization and Patterns of Household Cooling," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-15, March.
    4. Valéry Masson & Colette Marchadier & Luc Adolphe & Rahim Aguejdad & P. Avner & Marc Bonhomme & Geneviève Bretagne & X. Briottet & Bruno Bueno & Cécile de Munck & O. Doukari & Stéphane Hallegatte & Jul, 2014. "Adapting cities to climate change: A systemic modelling approach," Post-Print hal-01136215, HAL.
    5. G. Brooke Anderson & Keith W. Oleson & Bryan Jones & Roger D. Peng, 2018. "Classifying heatwaves: developing health-based models to predict high-mortality versus moderate United States heatwaves," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 439-453, February.
    6. Elisaveta P. Petkova & Daniel A. Bader & G. Brooke Anderson & Radley M. Horton & Kim Knowlton & Patrick L. Kinney, 2014. "Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-13, October.
    7. Christofer Åström & Daniel Oudin Åström & Camilla Andersson & Kristie L. Ebi & Bertil Forsberg, 2017. "Vulnerability Reduction Needed to Maintain Current Burdens of Heat-Related Mortality in a Changing Climate—Magnitude and Determinants," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-10, July.
    8. Stéphane Hallegatte & Fanny Henriet & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2011. "The economics of climate change impacts and policy benefits at city scale: a conceptual framework," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 51-87, January.
    9. Hem H Dholakia & Vimal Mishra & Amit Garg, 2015. "Predicted Increases in Heat related Mortality under Climate Change in Urban India," Working Papers id:7115, eSocialSciences.
    10. Simon Gosling & Jason Lowe & Glenn McGregor & Mark Pelling & Bruce Malamud, 2009. "Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 299-341, February.
    11. Shilu Tong & Peter Mather & Gerry Fitzgerald & David McRae & Ken Verrall & Dylan Walker, 2010. "Assessing the Vulnerability of Eco-Environmental Health to Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-19, February.
    12. Gino D. Marinucci & George Luber & Christopher K. Uejio & Shubhayu Saha & Jeremy J. Hess, 2014. "Building Resilience against Climate Effects—A Novel Framework to Facilitate Climate Readiness in Public Health Agencies," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-26, June.
    13. Jan Kyselý & Eva Plavcová, 2012. "Declining impacts of hot spells on mortality in the Czech Republic, 1986–2009: adaptation to climate change?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 437-453, July.
    14. Rakin Abrar & Showmitra Kumar Sarkar & Kashfia Tasnim Nishtha & Swapan Talukdar & Shahfahad & Atiqur Rahman & Abu Reza Md Towfiqul Islam & Amir Mosavi, 2022. "Assessing the Spatial Mapping of Heat Vulnerability under Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect in the Dhaka Metropolitan Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-24, April.
    15. Elisaveta P. Petkova & Radley M. Horton & Daniel A. Bader & Patrick L. Kinney, 2013. "Projected Heat-Related Mortality in the U.S. Urban Northeast," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, December.
    16. Kathryn C. Conlon & Kristina W. Kintziger & Meredith Jagger & Lydia Stefanova & Christopher K. Uejio & Charles Konrad, 2016. "Working with Climate Projections to Estimate Disease Burden: Perspectives from Public Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-23, August.
    17. Philip E. Morefield & Neal Fann & Anne Grambsch & William Raich & Christopher P. Weaver, 2018. "Heat-Related Health Impacts under Scenarios of Climate and Population Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-17, November.
    18. Scott Sheridan & Michael Allen & Cameron Lee & Laurence Kalkstein, 2012. "Future heat vulnerability in California, Part II: projecting future heat-related mortality," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(2), pages 311-326, November.
    19. David Sailor & Marshall Shepherd & Scott Sheridan & Brian Stone & Laurence Kalkstein & Armistead Russell & Jason Vargo & Theresa Andersen, 2016. "Improving Heat-Related Health Outcomes in an Urban Environment with Science-Based Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-13, October.
    20. Dholakia, Hem H. & Mishra, Vimal & Garg, Amit, 2015. "Predicted Increases in Heat related Mortality under Climate Change in Urban India," IIMA Working Papers WP2015-05-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    21. Maud M. T. E. Huynen & Pim Martens, 2015. "Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands: A Scenario-Based Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-26, October.

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