IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i19p5365-d271638.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the Vulnerabilities of Current and Future Production Systems in Punjab, Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Syed Asif Ali Naqvi

    (Department of Economics, Government College University Faisalabad, Faisalabad 38040, Pakistan)

  • Abdul Majeed Nadeem

    (Department of Economics, Government College University Faisalabad, Faisalabad 38040, Pakistan)

  • Muhammad Amjed Iqbal

    (Institute of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38040, Pakistan)

  • Sadia Ali

    (Department of Economics, Government College University Faisalabad, Faisalabad 38040, Pakistan)

  • Asia Naseem

    (Department of Economics, Government College University Faisalabad, Faisalabad 38040, Pakistan)

Abstract

Mankind is in peril and there are many reasons for this; however, climate change precedes all other reasons. Problems of poor farming communities are augmented due to the menace of climate change. This study endeavors to determine the effect on farming communities of both climate change and a situation without climate change. To carry out the study, three different districts were selected (Rawalpindi, Chakwal, and Layyah). Impact of the climate vagaries on per capita income, farm returns, and poverty of the respondents was taken into consideration. To achieve pathways analysis, regional representative agricultural pathways were used. The decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT) crop growth model was employed for wheat-related simulations. The tradeoff analysis model for multidimensional impact assessment (TOA-MD) model was used for economic analysis. The results lend credence to the aforementioned nuisance of climate change, as the findings which came through were negatively affecting farm returns, per capita income, and poverty of the farmers. The negative impact applies to both current and future production systems. Farmers are up against the wall because of climate change and they will have to adopt new innovations to raise their productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Syed Asif Ali Naqvi & Abdul Majeed Nadeem & Muhammad Amjed Iqbal & Sadia Ali & Asia Naseem, 2019. "Assessing the Vulnerabilities of Current and Future Production Systems in Punjab, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-13, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:19:p:5365-:d:271638
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/19/5365/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/19/5365/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bushra Yasmin & Zainab Jehan & Muhammad Ali Chaudhary, 2006. "Trade Liberalization and Economic Development: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 19-34, Jan-Jun.
    2. Chalise, Sudarshan & Naranpanawa, Athula & Bandara, Jayatilleke S. & Sarker, Tapan, 2017. "A general equilibrium assessment of climate change–induced loss of agricultural productivity in Nepal," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 43-50.
    3. Gorst, Ashley & Dehlavi, Ali & Groom, Ben, 2018. "Crop productivity and adaptation to climate change in Pakistan," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(6), pages 679-701, December.
    4. Yi-Chen E. Yang & Casey M. Brown & Winston H. Yu & Andre Savitsky, 2013. "An introduction to the IBMR, a hydro-economic model for climate change impact assessment in Pakistan's Indus River basin," Water International, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 632-650, September.
    5. John M. Antle & Roberto O. Valdivia, 2006. "Modelling the supply of ecosystem services from agriculture: a minimum‐data approach," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-15, March.
    6. Jehangir, Waqar & Masih, Ilyas & Ahmed, Shehzad & Gill, M. A. & Ahmad, M. & Mann, R. A. & Chaudhary, M. R. & Qureshi, Asad Sarwar & Turral, Hugh, 2007. "Sustaining crop water productivity in rice-wheat systems of South Asia: A case study from the Punjab, Pakistan," IWMI Working Papers H039915, International Water Management Institute.
    7. Arun Agrawal & Catherine McSweeney & Nicolas Perrin, 2008. "Local Institutions and Climate Change Adaptation," World Bank Publications - Reports 11145, The World Bank Group.
    8. Pervez Zamurrad Janjua & Ghulam Samad & Nazakat Ullah Khan, 2010. "Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 799-822.
    9. Hussain, Syed Sajidin & Mudasser, Muhammad, 2007. "Prospects for wheat production under changing climate in mountain areas of Pakistan - An econometric analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 494-501, May.
    10. Anthony Leiserowitz, 2007. "International Public Opinion, Perception, and Understanding of Global Climate Change," Human Development Occasional Papers (1992-2007) HDOCPA-2007-31, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    11. Uzma Hanif & Shabib Haider Syed & Rafique Ahmad & Kauser Abdullah Malik, 2010. "Economic Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector of Punjab," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 771-798.
    12. Valdivia, Roberto O. & Antle, John M. & Stoorvogel, Jetse J., 2012. "Coupling the Tradeoff Analysis Model with a market equilibrium model to analyze economic and environmental outcomes of agricultural production systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 17-29.
    13. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    14. Ahmad, Munir & Nawaz, Muhammad & Iqbal, Muhammad & Javed, Sajid, 2014. "Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Productivity in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72861, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Hermans, C.M.L. & Geijzendorffer, I.R. & Ewert, F. & Metzger, M.J. & Vereijken, P.H. & Woltjer, G.B. & Verhagen, A., 2010. "Exploring the future of European crop production in a liberalised market, with specific consideration of climate change and the regional competitiveness," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(18), pages 2177-2187.
    16. Heckman, James J, 1990. "Varieties of Selection Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 313-318, May.
    17. S. Eriksen & P. Kelly, 2007. "Developing Credible Vulnerability Indicators for Climate Adaptation Policy Assessment," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 495-524, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anwar Hussain & Rabia Bangash, 2017. "Impact of Climate Change on Crops’ Productivity across Selected Agro-ecological Zones in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 56(2), pages 163-187.
    2. Meraj Sarwary & Senthilnathan Samiappan & Ghulam Dastgir Khan & Masaood Moahid, 2023. "Climate Change and Cereal Crops Productivity in Afghanistan: Evidence Based on Panel Regression Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-13, July.
    3. Nasir Munir & Adiqa Kiani & Asia Baig, 2016. "Climate Change and Food Security in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Global Economics Review, Humanity Only, vol. 1(1), pages 47-55, December.
    4. Sohail Abbas & Zulfiqar Ali Mayo, 2021. "Impact of temperature and rainfall on rice production in Punjab, Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 1706-1728, February.
    5. Khush Bukhat ZAHID, & Munir AHMED, 2018. "Climate change and profit efficiency in Punjab, Pakistan: Evidence from household-level panel data," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 85-98, March.
    6. Bakhtmina Zia & Dr Muhammad Rafiq PhD Research Scholar & Institute of Management Sciences & Peshawar & Pakistan & Associate Professor & Institute of Management Sciences & Peshawar & Pakistan, 2020. "Reviewing climate change and agricultural market competitiveness," Papers 2008.13726, arXiv.org.
    7. Terence Epule Epule, 2021. "Recent Patterns of Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity of Selected Crops in Cameroon," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-19, June.
    8. Abeysekara, Walimuni Chamindri Sewanka Mendis & Siriwardana, Mahinda & Meng, Samuel, 2023. "Economic consequences of climate change impacts on the agricultural sector of South Asia: A case study of Sri Lanka," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 435-450.
    9. Emőke Kiss & Dániel Balla & András Donát Kovács, 2022. "Characteristics of Climate Concern—Attitudes and Personal Actions—A Case Study of Hungarian Settlements," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-22, April.
    10. Frank, Stefan & Witzke, Heinz-Peter & Zimmermann, Andrea & Havlík, Petr & Ciaian, Pavel, 2014. "Climate change impacts on European agriculture: a multi model perspective," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 183025, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Muhammad Khalid Anser & Tayyaba Hina & Shahzad Hameed & Muhammad Hamid Nasir & Ishfaq Ahmad & Muhammad Asad ur Rehman Naseer, 2020. "Modeling Adaptation Strategies against Climate Change Impacts in Integrated Rice-Wheat Agricultural Production System of Pakistan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-18, April.
    12. Ismaël Mourifié & Marc Henry & Romuald Méango, 2020. "Sharp Bounds and Testability of a Roy Model of STEM Major Choices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(8), pages 3220-3283.
    13. Liu, Duan & Tang, Runcheng & Xie, Jun & Tian, Jingjing & Shi, Rui & Zhang, Kai, 2020. "Valuation of ecosystem services of rice–fish coculture systems in Ruyuan County, China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    14. Lanot, Gauthier & Walker, Ian, 1998. "The union/non-union wage differential: An application of semi-parametric methods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 327-349, June.
    15. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    16. Giorgio Pietro, 2007. "The effect of computer use on earnings in Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 245-262, September.
    17. Chateau, J. & Dellink, R. & Lanzi, E. & Magne, B., 2012. "Long-term economic growth and environmental pressure: reference scenarios for future global projections," Conference papers 332249, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    18. Jeetendra Prakash Aryal & Tek B. Sapkota & Ritika Khurana & Arun Khatri-Chhetri & Dil Bahadur Rahut & M. L. Jat, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: adaptation options in smallholder production systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 5045-5075, August.
    19. Manuel Arellano & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2017. "Quantile Selection Models With an Application to Understanding Changes in Wage Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 1-28, January.
    20. Caroline Bayart & Patrick Bonnel, 2015. "How to Combine Survey Media (Web, Telephone, Face-to-Face): Lyon and Rhône-alps Case Study," Post-Print halshs-01663683, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:19:p:5365-:d:271638. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.