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Projected Heat-Related Mortality in the U.S. Urban Northeast

Author

Listed:
  • Elisaveta P. Petkova

    (Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th St., New York, NY 10032, USA)

  • Radley M. Horton

    (Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA)

  • Daniel A. Bader

    (Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA)

  • Patrick L. Kinney

    (Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th St., New York, NY 10032, USA)

Abstract

Increased heat-related mortality is projected to be among the major impacts of climate change on human health, and the United States urban Northeast region is likely to be particularly vulnerable. In support of regional adaptation planning, quantitative information is needed on potential future health responses at the urban and regional scales. Here, we present future projections of heat-related mortality in Boston, New York and Philadelphia utilizing downscaled next-generation climate models and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Our analyses reveal that heat-related mortality rates per 100,000 of population during the baseline period between 1985 and 2006 were highest in Philadelphia followed by New York City and Boston. However, projected heat-related mortality rates in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s were highest in New York City followed by Philadelphia and Boston. This study may be of value in developing strategies for reducing the future impacts of heat and building climate change resilience in the urban Northeast region.

Suggested Citation

  • Elisaveta P. Petkova & Radley M. Horton & Daniel A. Bader & Patrick L. Kinney, 2013. "Projected Heat-Related Mortality in the U.S. Urban Northeast," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:10:y:2013:i:12:p:6734-6747:d:30963
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jae Young Lee & Woo-Seop Lee & Kristie L. Ebi & Ho Kim, 2019. "Temperature-Related Summer Mortality Under Multiple Climate, Population, and Adaptation Scenarios," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-9, March.
    2. Misun Kang & Kyu Rang Kim & Ju-Young Shin, 2020. "Event-Based Heat-Related Risk Assessment Model for South Korea Using Maximum Perceived Temperature, Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature, and Air Temperature Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-19, April.
    3. Kijin Seong & Junfeng Jiao & Akhil Mandalapu, 2023. "Evaluating the effects of heat vulnerability on heat-related emergency medical service incidents: Lessons from Austin, Texas," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 50(3), pages 776-795, March.
    4. Jan C. Semenza, 2014. "Climate Change and Human Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-7, July.
    5. Elisaveta P. Petkova & Daniel A. Bader & G. Brooke Anderson & Radley M. Horton & Kim Knowlton & Patrick L. Kinney, 2014. "Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-13, October.
    6. Jae Young Lee & Martin Röösli & Martina S. Ragettli, 2021. "Estimation of Heat-Attributable Mortality Using the Cross-Validated Best Temperature Metric in Switzerland and South Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-9, June.
    7. Jae Young Lee & Ejin Kim & Woo-Seop Lee & Yeora Chae & Ho Kim, 2018. "Projection of Future Mortality Due to Temperature and Population Changes under Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-9, April.
    8. Augusta A. Williams & John D. Spengler & Paul Catalano & Joseph G. Allen & Jose G. Cedeno-Laurent, 2019. "Building Vulnerability in a Changing Climate: Indoor Temperature Exposures and Health Outcomes in Older Adults Living in Public Housing during an Extreme Heat Event in Cambridge, MA," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-15, July.
    9. Ruth McDermott-Levy & Madeline Scolio & Kabindra M. Shakya & Caroline H. Moore, 2021. "Factors That Influence Climate Change-Related Mortality in the United States: An Integrative Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(15), pages 1-21, August.

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