IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v10y2013i12p6734-6747d30963.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projected Heat-Related Mortality in the U.S. Urban Northeast

Author

Listed:
  • Elisaveta P. Petkova

    (Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th St., New York, NY 10032, USA)

  • Radley M. Horton

    (Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA)

  • Daniel A. Bader

    (Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA)

  • Patrick L. Kinney

    (Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th St., New York, NY 10032, USA)

Abstract

Increased heat-related mortality is projected to be among the major impacts of climate change on human health, and the United States urban Northeast region is likely to be particularly vulnerable. In support of regional adaptation planning, quantitative information is needed on potential future health responses at the urban and regional scales. Here, we present future projections of heat-related mortality in Boston, New York and Philadelphia utilizing downscaled next-generation climate models and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Our analyses reveal that heat-related mortality rates per 100,000 of population during the baseline period between 1985 and 2006 were highest in Philadelphia followed by New York City and Boston. However, projected heat-related mortality rates in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s were highest in New York City followed by Philadelphia and Boston. This study may be of value in developing strategies for reducing the future impacts of heat and building climate change resilience in the urban Northeast region.

Suggested Citation

  • Elisaveta P. Petkova & Radley M. Horton & Daniel A. Bader & Patrick L. Kinney, 2013. "Projected Heat-Related Mortality in the U.S. Urban Northeast," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:10:y:2013:i:12:p:6734-6747:d:30963
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/10/12/6734/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/10/12/6734/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tiantian Li & Radley M. Horton & Patrick L. Kinney, 2013. "Projections of seasonal patterns in temperature- related deaths for Manhattan, New York," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 717-721, August.
    2. Scott Sheridan & Cameron Lee & Michael Allen & Laurence Kalkstein, 2012. "Future heat vulnerability in California, Part I: projecting future weather types and heat events," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(2), pages 291-309, November.
    3. Katharine Hayhoe & Cameron Wake & Bruce Anderson & Xin-Zhong Liang & Edwin Maurer & Jinhong Zhu & James Bradbury & Art DeGaetano & Anne Stoner & Donald Wuebbles, 2008. "Regional climate change projections for the Northeast USA," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(5), pages 425-436, June.
    4. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    5. Gasparrini, Antonio, 2011. "Distributed Lag Linear and Non-Linear Models in R: The Package dlnm," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 43(i08).
    6. Knowlton, K. & Lynn, B. & Goldberg, R.A. & Rosenzweig, C. & Hogrefe, C. & Rosenthal, J.K. & Kinney, P.L., 2007. "Projecting heat-related mortality impacts under a changing climate in the New York City region," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 97(11), pages 2028-2034.
    7. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    8. Scott Sheridan & Michael Allen & Cameron Lee & Laurence Kalkstein, 2012. "Future heat vulnerability in California, Part II: projecting future heat-related mortality," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(2), pages 311-326, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jae Young Lee & Woo-Seop Lee & Kristie L. Ebi & Ho Kim, 2019. "Temperature-Related Summer Mortality Under Multiple Climate, Population, and Adaptation Scenarios," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-9, March.
    2. Misun Kang & Kyu Rang Kim & Ju-Young Shin, 2020. "Event-Based Heat-Related Risk Assessment Model for South Korea Using Maximum Perceived Temperature, Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature, and Air Temperature Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-19, April.
    3. Kijin Seong & Junfeng Jiao & Akhil Mandalapu, 2023. "Evaluating the effects of heat vulnerability on heat-related emergency medical service incidents: Lessons from Austin, Texas," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 50(3), pages 776-795, March.
    4. Jan C. Semenza, 2014. "Climate Change and Human Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-7, July.
    5. Elisaveta P. Petkova & Daniel A. Bader & G. Brooke Anderson & Radley M. Horton & Kim Knowlton & Patrick L. Kinney, 2014. "Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-13, October.
    6. Jae Young Lee & Martin Röösli & Martina S. Ragettli, 2021. "Estimation of Heat-Attributable Mortality Using the Cross-Validated Best Temperature Metric in Switzerland and South Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-9, June.
    7. Jae Young Lee & Ejin Kim & Woo-Seop Lee & Yeora Chae & Ho Kim, 2018. "Projection of Future Mortality Due to Temperature and Population Changes under Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-9, April.
    8. Augusta A. Williams & John D. Spengler & Paul Catalano & Joseph G. Allen & Jose G. Cedeno-Laurent, 2019. "Building Vulnerability in a Changing Climate: Indoor Temperature Exposures and Health Outcomes in Older Adults Living in Public Housing during an Extreme Heat Event in Cambridge, MA," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-15, July.
    9. Ruth McDermott-Levy & Madeline Scolio & Kabindra M. Shakya & Caroline H. Moore, 2021. "Factors That Influence Climate Change-Related Mortality in the United States: An Integrative Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(15), pages 1-21, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elisaveta P. Petkova & Daniel A. Bader & G. Brooke Anderson & Radley M. Horton & Kim Knowlton & Patrick L. Kinney, 2014. "Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-13, October.
    2. Gino D. Marinucci & George Luber & Christopher K. Uejio & Shubhayu Saha & Jeremy J. Hess, 2014. "Building Resilience against Climate Effects—A Novel Framework to Facilitate Climate Readiness in Public Health Agencies," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-26, June.
    3. Christofer Åström & Daniel Oudin Åström & Camilla Andersson & Kristie L. Ebi & Bertil Forsberg, 2017. "Vulnerability Reduction Needed to Maintain Current Burdens of Heat-Related Mortality in a Changing Climate—Magnitude and Determinants," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-10, July.
    4. Dholakia, Hem H. & Mishra, Vimal & Garg, Amit, 2015. "Predicted Increases in Heat related Mortality under Climate Change in Urban India," IIMA Working Papers WP2015-05-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    5. Kokou Amega & Yendoubé Laré & Ramchandra Bhandari & Yacouba Moumouni & Aklesso Y. G. Egbendewe & Windmanagda Sawadogo & Saidou Madougou, 2022. "Solar Energy Powered Decentralized Smart-Grid for Sustainable Energy Supply in Low-Income Countries: Analysis Considering Climate Change Influences in Togo," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-24, December.
    6. Qun'ou Jiang & Yuwei Cheng & Qiutong Jin & Xiangzheng Deng & Yuanjing Qi, 2015. "Simulation of Forestland Dynamics in a Typical Deforestation and Afforestation Area under Climate Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-26, September.
    7. Lu, Yongquan & Liu, Guilin & Xian, Yuyang & Tang, Jiaqi & Zhong, Liming, 2024. "Climate change brings both opportunities and challenges to rural revitalization in China: Evidence from apple geographical indication predictions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    8. Pedro Pérez-Cutillas & Pedro Baños Páez & Isabel Banos-González, 2020. "Variability of Water Balance under Climate Change Scenarios. Implications for Sustainability in the Rhône River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-22, August.
    9. Sabina Thaler & Herbert Formayer & Gerhard Kubu & Miroslav Trnka & Josef Eitzinger, 2021. "Effects of Bias-Corrected Regional Climate Projections and Their Spatial Resolutions on Crop Model Results under Different Climatic and Soil Conditions in Austria," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-39, October.
    10. Rusu, Liliana, 2019. "Evaluation of the near future wave energy resources in the Black Sea under two climate scenarios," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 137-146.
    11. Gregory Casey & Soheil Shayegh & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Martin Bunzl & Oded Galor & Ken Caldeira, 2019. "The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility," Department of Economics Working Papers 2019-04, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    12. Dobes Leo & Jotzo Frank & Stern David I., 2014. "The Economics of Global Climate Change: A Historical Literature Review," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(3), pages 281-320, December.
    13. Grundy, Michael J. & Bryan, Brett A. & Nolan, Martin & Battaglia, Michael & Hatfield-Dodds, Steve & Connor, Jeffery D. & Keating, Brian A., 2016. "Scenarios for Australian agricultural production and land use to 2050," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 70-83.
    14. Vassiliki Varela & Diamando Vlachogiannis & Athanasios Sfetsos & Stelios Karozis & Nadia Politi & Frédérique Giroud, 2019. "Projection of Forest Fire Danger due to Climate Change in the French Mediterranean Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-13, August.
    15. Antolin, Luís A.S. & Heinemann, Alexandre B. & Marin, Fábio R., 2021. "Impact assessment of common bean availability in Brazil under climate change scenarios," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    16. Zhang, Feng & Zhang, Wenjuan & Li, Ming & Zhang, Yuan & Li, Fengmin & Li, Changbin, 2017. "Is crop biomass and soil carbon storage sustainable with long-term application of full plastic film mulching under future climate change?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 67-77.
    17. Gilardelli, Carlo & Confalonieri, Roberto & Cappelli, Giovanni Alessandro & Bellocchi, Gianni, 2018. "Sensitivity of WOFOST-based modelling solutions to crop parameters under climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 368(C), pages 1-14.
    18. Hem H Dholakia & Vimal Mishra & Amit Garg, 2015. "Predicted Increases in Heat related Mortality under Climate Change in Urban India," Working Papers id:7115, eSocialSciences.
    19. W. J. W. Botzen & M. L. Martinius & P. Bröde & M. A. Folkerts & P. Ignjacevic & F. Estrada & C. N. Harmsen & H. A. M. Daanen, 2020. "Economic valuation of climate change–induced mortality: age dependent cold and heat mortality in the Netherlands," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 545-562, September.
    20. Huanbi Yue & Chunyang He & Qingxu Huang & Da Zhang & Peijun Shi & Enayat A. Moallemi & Fangjin Xu & Yang Yang & Xin Qi & Qun Ma & Brett A. Bryan, 2024. "Substantially reducing global PM2.5-related deaths under SDG3.9 requires better air pollution control and healthcare," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:10:y:2013:i:12:p:6734-6747:d:30963. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.